Roulette Strategy.....??

[Scottnyce]

I was talking to a friend of mine at work and he came up with a strategy for a very simple profit at the Roulette wheel....

Could anyone that plays this game regularly tell me if this could work or point out the flaws in the logic...

Thanks,


Bet 1. $10 on Black

Red Hits

Bet 2. $20 on Black

Red Hits

Bet 3. $30 on Black

Black Hits, pulling you back to even.

Bet 4. $10 on Black

Black Hits, Pull $10 off table for $10 profit

Bet 5. $10 on Black

Red Hits

Bet 6. $20 on Black

Black hits, pulling you back to even on that round

Bet 7. $10 on Black

Black hits, Pull $10 off the table..Profit is now $20


Does this explanation make sense? Other then Bankroll requirements to sustain a losing streak of 7 spins you would only need $960 to cover your loses on the 7th spin.

So why would this not work if you sat there and bit black twice in a row for 3 times an hour for an hourly rate of $30?

Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Other then Bankroll requirements to sustain a losing streak of 7 spins you would only need $960 to cover your loses on the 7th spin.


[/ QUOTE ]

1 - What if red hits 8 times in a row?
2 - What if you reach the house limit before black hits?
3 - What if you reach the end of your bankroll before black hits?

1 - Eventually it will happen.
2 - Eventually it will happen.
3 - Eventually it will happen.

[cardcounter0]

It won't work. I didn't read any of your betting strategy, so I can't give you any particulars, other than it won't work.

If you play it long enough, your -EV is the same house edge as if you just flat bet red/black, or a single number, or any other of the numbers bets combinations you make.

It doesn't matter if you make a bunch of bets, one bet, some small bets and a big bet, or any combination of bets and amounts, in any series imaginable .... The House Edge is the same. You lose.

[RollaJ]

It is not that unlikely that one color could come up 12 times in a row

[cepstrum]

Hi Scott -

You don't need to play roulette regularly to see why this won't work.

Rather than explain the math, which has been covered ad nauseam in this forum (upshot: your bankroll can never be big enough), I will instead offer an existence proof explaining why this system will not let you beat roulette. If there were a simple system to let you have an advantage at roulette --- and this system is so simple that you only need 4th grade math to come up with it --- there would be no roulette because any idiot could employ the system and take the casinos to the cleaners. Roulette is still played, so there must not be a simple way to beat it.

Others will chime in with the relevant infinite bankroll requirement arguments.

Good Luck

Cepstrum

[thespecialist]

progression betting is a very dangerous way of playing, and does not work. however, if you must try progression (i know some people have to try and fail for themselves at least once) don't use the martingale system [the one you stated]. Hit up a search on the fibonnaci betting system, it makes use of the fibonnaci number system, and incorporating it into progression betting. It is slightly more complicated, generally takes 30 min to an hour of practice before you got it memorized to the button- but it is the safest progression betting system to use (altho, i still do not believe any progression system is safe).

[donkeyradish]

If I had to construct a roulette strategy this would be it:

Always bet on the number that just came up. Yep, that simple.

If the roulette wheel is perfectly random its no better or worse than any other strategy you could make up (they all lose in the long run).

If the roulette wheel however is not perfectly weighted this strategy will be better than a random one. It will tend to win more frequently than the statistical norm.

Its not too likely to succeed though, as a casino would soon notice if a wheel was biased. But then, I don't recommend anyone plays roulette, really.

[Abagadro]

1) Take money you were going to play roulette with using this system.

2) Place in pile.

3) Light match.

4) Apply to pile.

Same results.


And regarding one of the prior posts, the first three bets are the fibonacci system, not martindale. Martidale would be 10...20...40 while fibonacci is 10..20..30..50..80. It used the first three in the series. Both are crap though.

[IlliniRyRy]

If you had an infinite bankroll, there was no house maximum, and no green numbers, what would be the outcome? Break even?

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had an infinite bankroll, there was no house maximum, and no green numbers, what would be the outcome? Break even?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the expected value would be $0, i.e., breaking even.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had an infinite bankroll, there was no house maximum, and no green numbers, what would be the outcome? Break even?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you also had an infinite amount of time, your win could be any amount you wanted it to be. Just bet that amount on the first spin. Keep doubling until you win. It doesn't matter if there are green numbers or not - it will just take longer if there are.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Take money you were going to play roulette with using this system.

2) Place in pile.

3) Light match.

4) Apply to pile.

Same results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I haven't read anybody else's responses yet, but good lord, not this thread again.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Yea but what would even be the point of this? Such conditions do not exist, so there's no point in discussing it.

Roulette is not beatable. It's that simple.

[Abagadro]

http://www.billymeade.com/simages/quizzicaldog.jpg

[Michael Davis]

Burning money is a guaranteed loss. Betting on anything is not.

-Michael

[Nemesis]

Do the 2:1 odds offer the same -EV or is it greater?

[Abagadro]

Burning it will at least keep you warm for a few minutes, so it is a better EV move.


So says quizzical puppy.

[Michael Davis]

Does quizzical puppy like peanut butter?

Ugh...

-Michael

[Abagadro]

Ask him (http://www.billymeade.com/oracle.php)

[cardcounter0]

All the bets in roulette have the same negative -EV.
(there is one exception: betting on 0-00-1-2-3, called a "basket" bet, this one five number bet is slightly worse.)

They all have the same -EV, but how many bets are there?

red/black, odd/even, high-low, dozens, columns, individual numbers, two numbers, three numbers, four numbers, street of 6 numbers. What am I missing?

[CORed]

This is called a "Martingale". I'm not sure of the origin of the term. Like all betting progressions, it doesn't alter the house edge at all. It does alter the short term distribution of results, giving you a high probability of a small win and a low probability of a disastrous loss.