Flopping overpair. How much do I need to bet? [Archive]

View Full Version : Flopping overpair. How much do I need to bet?

ddubois

06-21-2004, 03:15 PM

To push off a 9-outer (flush)?

To push off a 6-outter (overs)?

Do I want to bet enough to make them fold, or enough that they might call but will have incorrect odds?

I played these two hands with the same strategy, but with one crucial difference. See if you can spot it!
/images/graemlins/wink.gif

HAND 1:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t685)
SB (t1295)
BB (t775)
UTG (t762)
UTG+1 (t770)
MP1 (t225)
MP2 (t1020)
MP3 (t868)
CO (t1600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
5 folds, CO raises to t60, Hero raises to t200, 2 folds, CO calls t140.

Flop: (t445) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets t300, CO folds.

Final Pot: t745
Main Pot: t445 (t445), won by Hero.
Pot 2: t300 (t300), returned to Hero.

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins t745.


HAND 2:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t1382)
CO (t1910)
Button (t660)
SB (t605)
BB (t1670)
UTG (t1773)

Preflop: Hero TEHero%%%%%J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t100, Hero raises to t290, 4 folds, UTG calls t190.

Flop: (t730) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t400, UTG raises to t1483 (All-In), Hero calls t692 (All-In).

Turn: (t3305) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3305) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t3305
Main Pot: t2914 (t2914), between Hero and UTG. > Pot won by UTG (t2914).
Pot 2: t391 (t391), returned to UTG.

Results in white below: 
UTG shows 5c 5d (three of a kind, fives).
Hero shows Jd Jh (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins t3305.

ddubois

06-21-2004, 06:13 PM

Odd, I expected some replies to this. This is probably covered in some NL book somewhere. I have like 7 poker books, but nothing on NL. I assume the Caffione book is the one that should be my first priority?

Anyway, let me see if I can do the math myself.

Let's assume blinds 100, opponent stack 900, my stack 1200. For easy number, let's assume my opponent in in the BB and I pre-flop raise 3bb, which makes it heads up.

That leaves: Pot 600, opponent 600, my stack 900. If my opponent has a nut flush draw to my overpair, one question he has to think about is can he get the remainder of my stack if he hits. Aganist me, he probably can. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Twodimes reports an ace and a flush draw is closer to KK than I thought: more like 9:11 than 1:2.

pokenum -h ad 8d - ks kc -- qd 3d 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7c Qd 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad 8d 449 45.35 541 54.65 0 0.00 0.454
Ks Kc 541 54.65 449 45.35 0 0.00 0.546

So if I push on the flop, the most he can get is the size of his stack, 600. For his call of 600, he has a chance at getting the 600 that was in the pot and the 600 I just bet. So for the price of 1, he gets a chance at 2. A fair deal for him is to pay 9 and get 11. Clearly anything less than all-in is even better odds for him, and an easy call? So there is no way with my stack size I can make a flop call incorrect?

Well, I'm shocked and dismayed! As someone said in another thread, I "thought the joy of NL was crushing implied odds". This is all the fault of Party's structure isn't it?

Anyway, should I conclude that I am supposed to wait until the turn to push draws off then, when I jump up to a 7:2 favorite? I thought giving free cards to aces and diamonds was awful play? And there's a problem with even this plan. If I try to check that flop, there's no reason for my opponent not to bet, or even push. He gets fold equity, putting me in a tough spot, even with the (marginally) the best of it. I have to call, since I have better than 1:2 shot at winning, but the fact that we are both getting "the right odds" really bothers me for some reason.

Hood

06-21-2004, 06:28 PM

I bet the pot every time, unless there's a very scary board or a fear an overpair (due to pre-flop betting). Betting the pot ensures one opponent doesn't get the odds to draw to their straight or flush.

Really I'm looking to take down the pot there. If I get called after betting the flop, I'm worred.

On the first hand, there's a straight and flush draw. You don't want them hanging around. Bet the pot. If you get a call then you have position. Depending on the turn card you might want to push to ensure they don't get a free card on the river.

On the second hand, I would have lost it all but in a different way. Your underbet on the flop is encouraging draws (overcards mainly here) to hand around. I would have pushed here. If your willing to call an all-in, you may as well push it all to start with.

ddubois

06-21-2004, 08:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the pot ensures one opponent doesn't get the odds to draw to their straight or flush.... On the first hand, there's a straight and flush draw. You don't want them hanging around. Bet the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, AcQc is favored against my TT here (as is AcKc KcQc AcJc). I thought my second post established they have odds, and moreover, no bet I can make will give them incorrect odds. So what am I missing? Does it have something to do with the fact that there are two betting rounds, thus changing the effective odds?

My opponent told me as he mucked that he had AdQd, so he was a 1:3 underdog, but if had AcQc, there's no bet I can make that he "should" fold to, correct? This is of course, assuming he can see my hand. If he has reason to think his ace and/or queen outs are no good (because I have AA or a set), then he "should" fold. But I don't know how I can convince someone I have AA here.

Was my bet with the TT hand enough to properly make a 1:3 underdog fold?

PrayingMantis

06-22-2004, 04:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So what am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not missing anything, you're only thinking in tems that are not really relevant to these stages of SNGs, or to any kind of short-staks' NL poker. Playing short-stack NL is about being aggressive, acting first, and pushing your stack in whenever you think you're ahead. It's not about pot-odds, and surely not about implied odds. That's why some call it "kamikaze poker".

Hand 1

Your raise PF is problematic, but the spot is problematic as well. What's your read on CO? will he call an all-in with a weaker hand in that point? then you should push. Otherwise, you might call his raise and play him on the flop, but a push, also as an isloation move, looks better. You put about 30% your stack PF. So on the flop (which is good for you) you should push no matter what. There's no sense in betting 300, which is 60% your stack at that point. You are not going to fold anyway, right? so push it all in. With such short stacks, many hands end PF or on the flop. Rarely you should go to see the turn (not to speak about the river) to make your decision. Think about it: You bet 300, he calls. Turn: pot is 1045, your stack is 185. You should not get to such spots. You can't fold anymore, and OTOH, your stack is ridiculus, and you can't scare anybody with it. So finish it earlier, whether you push or fold. Here you push.

Hand 2

Again, a bit "in between" problematic raise PF. Do you want callers? Do you want them to fold? It's not here and not there. On the flop, pot is 730, you have about 1000, your opponent 1500. You think you're ahead? You should think. So push. Your 1/2 pot bet, and then calling his check-raise all-in, achieve nothing. If you're thinking he's a player that will check-raise you ONLY if he has you beaten, then you better fold, but it will rarely be correct on this flop, with your hand. Again, it's not about odds - it's (generally) about being first to act, and going in when you think you have the best of it.

Hood

06-22-2004, 05:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting the pot ensures one opponent doesn't get the odds to draw to their straight or flush.... On the first hand, there's a straight and flush draw. You don't want them hanging around. Bet the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, AcQc is favored against my TT here (as is AcKc KcQc AcJc). I thought my second post established they have odds, and moreover, no bet I can make will give them incorrect odds. So what am I missing? Does it have something to do with the fact that there are two betting rounds, thus changing the effective odds?

My opponent told me as he mucked that he had AdQd, so he was a 1:3 underdog, but if had AcQc, there's no bet I can make that he "should" fold to, correct? This is of course, assuming he can see my hand. If he has reason to think his ace and/or queen outs are no good (because I have AA or a set), then he "should" fold. But I don't know how I can convince someone I have AA here.

Was my bet with the TT hand enough to properly make a 1:3 underdog fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of points- You are presuming that you can see his hand, as well has he can see your hand. Although you can't crush his chip implied odds, you can with someone with just overcards or just a flush draw, or just a straight draw. That justifies pushing. Secondly, as you say, he doesn't know your hand, so he doesn't know how good his outs are.

Secondly, although you can't offer him 'bad' odds to call (and this is partly due to the party structure, as you point out), it's better than giving him infinite odds by not betting, or better odds by not pushing. You've got the better hand, you've got a higher EV on this hand, so you can't let him see if for free. He's got odds to call, but you've got better odds.

Thirdly, a think distinguishing between chip EV And money EV is important here (although it's not something I know a lot about). Although calling for him is a +CEV move, he's committing his whole stack early on, so it may be a -$EV move. Because we're all in he loses his implied odds. I'd certainly fold to an all-in with AQ, even if I knew I was getting good odds to call.