Hmmmm....

[x-ray]

Typical Party 3/6

UTG limps, Hero limps UTG+1 with 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, MP limps, CO limps, button limps, SB folds, BB checks.

FLOP: J /images/graemlins/club.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked around.

TURN: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, UTG bets....

Does the hero make more money in the long run by raising or smooth-calling?

What actually happened (in white) -&gt; <font color="white"> Hero raised and everyone folded back to UTG who called, blank on the river, checked to hero who bet and won without a showdown. </font>

Thanks,
Ray

[JohnShaft]

Ya'know I almost never don't raise early with sets, but I think this is one opportunity where I wouldn't mind. It doesn't seem like anyone likes their hand much, and they're probably all drawing to second best hands you can afford to let draw for one, as they'll fold for two. And once in a while this might get back raised allowing you to 3-bet.
I wouldn't beat yourself up about raising though. Many players slowplay sets too much imo.

[x-ray]

I wasn't sure on the math, but here's my attempt to figure it out.

I'm giving the next person ~5:1 for a call, which (in the heat of the moment) I thought was bad because a flush draw would be correct in calling (which is why I raised)...but figuring this out now I realize he only has seven outs meaning he's taking the worst of it (barely) with a call (seven outs is 5.8:1 against).

So I think I just answered my own question, unless I'm missing something. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Thanks,
Ray