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View Full Version : odds that no overcards flop when you have pocket pair


jwvdcw
06-19-2004, 04:21 PM
Sorry if this has been asked before(I'm sure it has) but I couldn't find it in this forum anywhere. What are the odds that an overcard will flop when you hold each pocket pair? For example, when you hold K-K, what are the odds that an ace will flop? When you hold Q-Q what are the odds that either an ace of king will flop? And so on and so on. Also what are the odds that an overcard will hit on the flop or the turn for each pocket pair? And finally what are the odds that an overcard will fall on any street for each pocket pair?

If you want to know how I plan on using this info...I play mostly in NLHE multi tourneys, where you obviously don't want to take big risks. Therefore, I'd like to use this info to see how aggressive I should be with hands like JJ and 10-10 preflop if I don't want to be put in a tough spot with an overcard flopping...any discussion on this issue would also be useful to me...thanks for any help.

DPCondit
06-19-2004, 04:35 PM
It's not that hard to figure out. You have 2 kings, and 50 cards in the deck are unknown. There are 4 aces (given no assumptions of what your opponents are holding, otherwise you will need different inputs) so 46 cards are not aces and 4 cards are.

1 - (46/50*45/49*44/48) = about 22.6%

If you have queens, there are 8 cards larger than queens, so instead of 46 out of 50 cards, use 42. You can figure it out from there.

Don

cold_cash
06-20-2004, 12:48 AM
try this (http://www.pokersavvy.com/img/oddscard-web-lrg.gif)