conspiracy theory pt. 1

[riverboatking]

now before you read this...bear with me.

i have noticed a trend on party poker MTT and have been doing a little experimenting.
for the longest time i was playing good solid tourney strategy and nearly every time i was all in i was at least a 2-1 favorite. and i never made the money, i would flop sets and lose to runner runner straights, flushes and boats and i was getting pissed. so many bad beats i was on perma tilt.
so i bought into a 5 dollar MTT (i usually play 30, 50, or 100) and decided to take a different approach.
i made a concerted effort to play dominated hands and longshot draws. i called raises with exactly the types of hands i was used to losing to. i would call raises w/ AJ KQ QJ and of course find myself up against dominating hands AK AQ KK etc.
well wouldn't you know it i finished 8th out of like 200 and with no exaggeration i can say that everytime i was all in i bad beat someone. often times i had only three outs but it didn't matter.
now i would never form conclusions from one example so i have been going back and forth between strategies.
i played my "bad" way four more times and without fail made the top 10% every time!!!! most of the times finishing in the money.
a couple of times i screwed up and actually had the best hand preflop catching someone trying to steal and wouldn't you know it i lost!!!
so tonight i went back to my solid style of play and first hand i played my QQ lost to J9 on a jack high flop when all the money went in.
NotAclue can attest to this cuz he was sitting right next to me at the time. i asked him how he would play it and he responded in perfect form: "not a clue"
anyways i know bad beats happen and i hope you take this with a grain of salt but i was wondering if any of you have experienced this and if you feel like having some fun try out my system on a five dollar MTT and see what happens.

[Dentist]

So, the worse you play, the better you do...

Interesting, so do you muck things like AA and KK pre-flop to avoid any "advantage"?

why even play things like AJ and KQ, there are a lot of yummy hand combinations like 10 2 suited that I have seen win good pots...

Why mess with a potential advantage, when you can guarantee yourself a disadvantage with monsters like 3 2 off, or 7 2?

Take this system to an ARTFORM!

[Smasharoo]

Your play was very...what's the word I'm looking for. Creative!

[SossMan]

Hey, use whatever strategy works for you, man!! good luck!!

Soooooo....what times do you usually play on party??

[Cry Me A River]

When you make longshot bets, sometimes they will actually come in. And when they do, they will often bring with them a big payoff (by bad beating someone). Do this a couple times in a tournament and you may well wind up with enough chips to place well.

However, in the long run you're going to be in trouble!

In addition, I have to ask you how well you're keeping track (notes) of your experiment? A big part of the reason why people believe in psychics is because they remember the 1 correct guess but forget the 50 incorrect guesses. Are you only remembering the times your lonshots paid off and forgetting all the other times they didn't? Or are you only playing some longshots and not others - namely those which have better pot odds and implied odds - (even if you're not doing this consciously - so you're not really playing badly, you've just loosened up a little which can be a decent strategy in a fishy tournament)

And when you play "good" are you really playing "good" or do you just think you're playing good? (ie: Are you playing too tight or too lose for your table? Or it sounds like you may be playing too loose after the flop and chasing too much? Are you going all-in and/or calling all-in's too frequently?)

That is, how tightly controlled is your "experiment"?

[Dentist]

actually, I think riverboat has it right.

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!

This makes 4 out of my last 4 tournaments that i've been knocked out by 3-outers...

The guy who caught the 3 outer ended up doing decent.

I should've folded that favorite pre-flop..

New strategy.. Push in every hand and see what happens.
You can't get bad beated if you always go in as the dog!

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are so unbelievably wrong it's not funny

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are so unbelievably wrong it's not funny

[/ QUOTE ]

Feel free to correct them.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right on. Keep mucking those hands that can so easliy be broken. I'm sure you're just catching bad cards, it will turn around soon. Sorry, what was your name at party again? I could sit and play at the same table and we could go over hands at the end of the session here at 2+2. Could be beneficial to my bnkrll...uh i mean <font color="blue"> your</font> game /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

cuz you know there aren't nearly enough of these posts on the forums. I'm sure glad we can talk about this nonsense instead of strategy. You're invited to my next poker game, btw.

al

[Tosh]

Maybe this is the reason there are so many bad players on Party.

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you're right on. Keep mucking those hands that can so easliy be broken.


[/ QUOTE ]

Geez, who said anything about mucking? I'm was just saying the AK wasn't that horrible of a dog and being favorite is no guarantee of a win.

Or maybe you're expecting to win with KK 100% of the time? What table are you playing on, again? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[dm34]

Kings are about 70/30 against AK.

Moron.

[riverboatking]

this ONLY relates to tourneys not cash games.
don't know why just what i've noticed.
and despite my conclusions i continue to play what i believe is "proper" tourney strategy, i just thought this would be a fun way to both let off some steam and engage others to vent a little. because NO ONE who plays regularly on party's MTT can deny they see a rediculous amount of bad beats. and i'm not talking about AK beating KK i'm talking about top set going down to runner runner flushes and runner runner strights. we're talking about 5%.
don't take life so seriously guys.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
don't take life so seriously guys

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, gotta love it. Guy posts a thread called "conspiracy theory" then tells every one to calm down and take life not so seriously. This is only pt.1? No more, please. Yes you are "missing something" btw, actually you're missing a lot.
If you come to the board asking for advice or seeking critique of a hand or two, you will(usually) find help. Posting things like this is only asking to be laughed at. Don't take poker so seriously, dude.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

don't take life so seriously guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right, we're too damn serious with regard to these posts.

[aaronjacobg]

it was a joke post in the first place is what he's saying. I think he was commenting on all of the bad beats that happen and how everyone bitches about them so much and how they played it exactly right but it turned out so wrong. you all turned it into a thread where everyone invited everyone to their houses. Silly fools.

Jake

[SossMan]

wink, wink, nod, nod....i love you guys

[jwvdcw]

I think what you're experiencing is just the length of multi table tourneys. Even if you are a huge favorite when you go all in against somebody, in a multi table tourney, you are going to go all in so much that you're an underdog to win no matter what. What I mean by that is even if you go all in 3 times with pocket aces and get called every time by 4h-5h, do you realize that you are an underdog to still be alive after all of those all in? So even if you are in a totally dominant position when you go all in(like the 78%-22%) given in the above example, you are still an underdog to survive multiple all ins.

If you are really serious about investigating this, play your good game, and keep track of every single time you are all in. As was already said, I think you're forgetting about the times when you good hands hold up and just focusing on the bad beats.

[riverboatking]

YES YES YES!!!
CONGRATULAIONS AARON.

[OPJayhawk]

I am a winning player on Party and have played there a ton since the beginning of the Year.

I have a degree in accounting and am a "numbers" guy myself.

I do think there is something to the number of bad beats that consistently happen at PP.

The question I asked myself for a long time was Why would they do it? I mean what difference does it make to the people behind PP who wins and who loses? I think the answer might be by having a "system" that rewards bad play it keeps the fish around longer and does not let the stronger players eat them up so quickly.

More players = more money for PP.

I have also noticed that after cashing out the number of Bad beats seems to be much greater.

I had placed in 6 straight $30 Party 3 table tourneys and decided to cash some out. I was a little leary about doing so but did it anyway. I went on to finish out of the money the next 10 straight tourneys. In those 10 loses it was horrible bad beat after bad beat after bad beat.

I am not kidding when I say I lost ten in row when on the high majority of those hands I was a heavy favorite. I dont play crap and I am almost always ahead when the chips go in.

What are the odds of losing 10 coin flips in a row? How about 10 75/25 shots in a row?

I play a trapping style of play and am willing to accept more risk than most so I take that into consideration, but it is also had to ignore the obvious, the number of bad beats just happens way more often than it should.

I know the sample above is tiny and I play a ton so I would certainly expect there to be some streaks that you run into but the 80/20 shots hit a hell of a lot more often than 20%.

Todays bad beat was a nice one I am on AA in the BB. I am up agaisnt someone in mid position with A8

Flop comes A 8 4 (At this point I am a 99.9% favorite) but I think we all know whats coming

Turn 8
River 8

Thanks alot Party Poker.

PacmanKS

[jwg152]

Not my quote, but I strongly believe in it. It is, "it's not how you handle the skill but how you handle the luck." Obviously, the OP has had some bad luck in MTTs. Who the hell has not? But when it starts to adversely affect your strategy, you have truly been beaten bad.

Two days ago, I had a nice chip lead in the party 100NL MTT with 18 left. I reraised a fat stacked late position player all-in with AA and got called with JJ after I had made a minimum raise from early position and he raised back one third of his stack. He flopped a set and I went from having a huge chip lead and assured big money to a below average stack and made peanuts... later in the day playing a 30 multi I made it to final table with a top three stack. I held 99 in the big blind and called a mimimum raise from a player in middle position. When 2-3-3 two of clubs hit the flop I checked the flop and the player raised the minimum. Having seen this player in action I was assured he had crap, and I sent him all in. He called having A (clubs) Q (spades) and when the turn and river brought clubs I was sent packing with a token of what I would've made with that pot. In the midnight 100NL (Yes, I played a lot of poker that day my girlfriend was out of town. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I have a nice stack in the middle of the tourney and I and three others are all-in, one with JJ, the other with AK, and myself with AA. What can I say, another dam J on the flop takes me out and deprives of a huge pot.

When T.J. Cloutier lost the WSOP on the river, he later stated, "that if you are going to play this game you better dam get used to that." I would advise the OP that if he can't handle the bad luck without altering his strategy or conjuring up vast plots then he should find another game where the outcome is always based purely on skill.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a degree in accounting and am a "numbers" guy myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I do think there is something to the number of bad beats that consistently happen at PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I have also noticed that after cashing out the number of Bad beats seems to be much greater.

[/ QUOTE ]

All these statements reinforce my views of people with accounting degrees, I am an accountant too, I am also a winning player on Party. I have noticed that my AA gets beat JJ about 20% of the time and my KK gets beat by AK about 30% of the time, whilst this is unpleasant it is also correct. What fun would a game be where the best hand won every time, it's a game of chance you know, and THERE IS NO CASH OUT CURSE.

Regards ML

[woodguy]

www.riveredagain.com (http://www.riveredagain.com)

[AStrauss]

I can't believe that people here are actually feeding into the idea that the randomness of the cards at either PP or stars is not-so-random. I mean, first off, it would be incredibly illegal for the cards not to be entirely random, and secondly as hard as it might be to swallow, "these things happen." What I mean by that is this: In a 18 top, SNG on stars with around 300 hands played, I hit AA four times. Once it was twice in a row. So, you do the math. 221 to 1 to get it on a random hand. 4 times within 300 hands. not likely at all, but guess what? It can happen. I can flop a royal flush 10 times in a row. I can have 4 kings beat by a royal flush that also beats 4 aces. It happens, and although it's harder when money is on the line, you have to deal with it. Adjust your emotions, or stop playing all together.

[KuQuAT]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what you're experiencing is just the length of multi table tourneys. Even if you are a huge favorite when you go all in against somebody, in a multi table tourney, you are going to go all in so much that you're an underdog to win no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

Every time you go into a pot, you can be busted. OK, maybe you're the chip leader and can only be wantonly crippled, but unless you have a huge chip lead, it's much the same thing. And, unless you're somewhat lucky early on, you won't have a massive chip lead.

So, even if you play very well, you're facing at least 10-12 hands over the course of the tournament where you might have the best of it, but probably not by more than maybe 3-1. Guess what? (75%)^10 = 5.5%. That is, the BEST player in the tournament only has maybe a 5% shot at winning. And much of the other 95% of the time, that player is eliminated early on. For example, (75%)^5 = 24%. That is, three-fourths of the time, the best player is busted in the first half! And this doesn't even count any play disasters, like flopped underset or KK all-in vs. AA pre-flop.

How can you mitigate?

One alternative is to play tighter than a &lt;insert your favorite metaphor here&gt;, and that will work early on, but will get you to mid-game with a short stack and makes you a target for thieves (something that's quite horrible, especially mid-game).

Another alternative is to try to "read" players, but that's very difficult online.

Yet another alternative is to punish limpers early on. This is actually CONTRARY to the GAP principle, but you know what - when people are being very loose, GAP only applies to serious raises.

The problem is that if the limits are $10/20 and everyone has $1500, then it's quite a serious raise to get people out of your pot pre-flop. I mean, these loons will call a raise to $100 most of the time and there are several of 'em creating long pot odds, so you might have to make 6x (or so) raises. That's perilous if you run into a tricky limp-reraise. But, if you know your table, then maybe that's not solikely. At least it's less likely than raising 3-4x, getting called and having your AK hunted down by 64s.

A related tactic is (almost) never limp in. You can often play a hand backward by open-raising with, say, 87s. This must be done with care, of course, but can disguise your hand and makes the limp-hunters more scarce. But open-raising with AQo just doesn't seem to work for me, because my opponents aren't mindful of GAP, so they call and hunt me down (unless I over-open-raise, but doing that early is treacherous).

Lastly, you can try to join the fracas, again with care. Scatter a few chips on speculative hands, because you play better post-flop. You do, don't you?

OK, that's where my plan falls apart. My post-flop play stinks.