Jim Brier CP hand

Jim posted the following re semi-bluffing.


>>Hand No. 1 ($10-$20 game): You limp in from middle position with the Js 10s behind an early limper. The button and small blind also limp. There is $50 in the pot and five players.

The flop is Ks Qd 3s , giving you a flush draw and an open-end straight draw. It is checked to you. You bet and the button raises. Everyone folds to you. What should you do?

Answer: Reraise. With 15 outs and two cards to come, you are a mathematical favorite to make a flush or a straight by the river, and you will be going to the river with this hand. The button may be raising on a come hand himself, hoping for a free card. Not only should you reraise, you should plan on betting the turn unless your opponent four-bets you here on the flop and a blank comes on the turn.

In the actual hand, the player just called. The turn was the 7c . He checked and the button bet. He called. The river was the 2c . It was checked down. The button won a $130 pot with the Qh 10h for a middle pair of queens. Not to play results, but had the player reraised on the flop and followed through with a bet on the turn, the button would have been hard-pressed to call, in my opinion.

<<


The flop re-raise isn't really a semi-bluff, as (according to Jim) you are a mathmatical favorite to win by the river.


My question concerns the bet on the turn. Since your opponent has raised on the flop, and since the board is co-ordinated, it seems unlikely that you would get him to fold very often. Perhaps in this case he would, but almost any other hand he is likely to have, he would call or raise with (top pair, two pair, flush draw, straight draw, set).


Shouldn't you think of the flop raise as both a value bet and a raise for a free card?

The flop reraise is certainly for value but has the added benifet of getting certain hands to lay down or just call on the turn when a blank comes. Some examples might be the one shown above (Q-T), K-J or K-T. If they don't lay down Jim has a river decision on his misses but if he is playing "good poker" and has feel for his opponent he should do well here.


I agree that the hand is long on "semi" and short on "bluff" but you still would rather have your opponent fold on the flop (even though Jim is a flop to finish favorite) because of the dead money already in.


Regards,


Rick

Headup, out of position I'm not sure that I like the three-bet on flop. As pointed out, you probably won't get a K or better to fold, and I personally am not a big fan of the "free-card" raise out of position, I think its too transparent and I'm not interested in missing alot of bets in other hands to set up this play. Three-betting this flop makes it tougher and more risky(in the sense of missing a bet) to try for a check-raise if you improve on the turn. Also, if you keep pushing this hand when do stop if you don't get there? What if you don't improve on the turn and get raised there when you're up against twopair or better? Finally, what if your OPPONENT raised the flop for a free card that he would have taken with the nut flush draw or another J-T? You'll never know while you're pushing this hand and you could miss an easy bluffing opportunity on the river if the turn goes check-check and a blank falls on the river.


Mike

On the semantic part of the discussion, at least the way I understand the terms:


A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that does not figure to be the best hand at the moment but has a reasonable chance of improving to a winner. It's still a semi-bluff whether the chance of improving to a winner is 51% or 49%.


A value bet is a bet with a hand that has some absolute value regardless of the situation. For example, two pair is a pretty good hand in hold 'em and a bet on the river with two pair can be considered a value bet. So I don't see a bet on-the-come as a value bet.


Am I wrong in my understanding of these terms?

You can indeed value bet/ value raise a draw. Jim's 3 bet on the flop is a value raise/semibluff.

I would define a value bet as any bet where you expect to make more money than what you just put in, not counting the possibility of winning the pot right there (which is the part that makes a semibluff worthwhile). So this includes betting/raising with big draws on the flop (and sometimes on the turn), as well as with strong made hands.

Jim is totally correct on this one.

Andy, according to the "Theory Of Poker" a semi-bluff is a bet made with hand that is currently not best but has outs when it is called. On the other hand, I have often argued that having a "super draw" where you are even-money or even better than even-money to make the best hand at the river can be viewed as a "value bet". I think you can look at this either way but using the TOP definition this is clearly a semi-bluff play.

Jim,


Hope I'm not being too semantic or pest here, but doesn't TOP describe a semi-bluff as a hand which is "probably" not the best....? My copy is in my car and I'm not going out to get it, but that's how I remember the definition of a semi-bluff. I suppose it doesn't make too much of a difference here anyway.


Mike

I suppose I wasn't clear in the original post. I have no problem with the re-raise on the flop, call it semi-bluff,value bet or free card bet, I think it's correct.


My concern was the turn bet. It can't be a legitimate semi-bluff if one of the requirements for a sb bet is that there is a good chance your opponent will fold. The button raised and called a re-raise, how likely is he going to fold for a turn bet? In this particular hand he might, but with most other hands that will raise the flop, he will either call or raise the turn, which makes a semi-bluff incorrect. Even in this hand, if he thinks you're on a draw, he will call the turn to force you to bet the river before he folds.


You don't have a value bet here, so you should be hoping for a free card. If you bet and get raised, you have to call with the many outs you have.


I'm very interested in thoughts on the turn bet after re-raising the flop. Thanks.

From Page 85 of the "Theory Of Poker" we read:


"A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand which, if called, does not figure to be the best hand at the moment but has a reasonable chance of outdrawing those hands that initially call it."


Clearly having Js-Ts on a board of Ks-Qd-3s does not figure to be the best hand at the moment. But it has excellent chances of outdrawing a better hand.

Take the actual hand. Given your 3-bet on the flop, how can a player with a middle pair of queens call a turn bet if the the turn-card is a king putting a top pair of kings on the board? Or suppose an ace shows up on the turn? How can he call with his pair of queens when a second overcard to his middle pair turns up? You actually have four aces plus three kings or seven additional outs to win the pot by betting the turn. It would be criminal not to follow up your flop 3-bet with a turn bet when one of these seven cards shows up.


Suppose your opponent has a top pair of kings. You might well win it on fourth by betting if the turn-cards is an ace or another queen. Suppose your opponent was fooling around with a gutshot draw if he had a hand like ace-jack or ace-ten. When you bet fourth, he may well run like a scared jackrabbit rather pay a double bet to play what looks to him like a four outer at best especially if a king or a queen turns up pairing the board.


I think following up with a bet on the turn is critical here when you don't get four bet on the flop.

I think there are plenty of hands the button might call the flop reraise with that he won't call a bet on the turn with. Keep in mind he was getting 10:1 to call the reraise on the flop with 2 cards to come, but on the turn he will be getting 6.5:1 to call with 1 card to come. The button's flop raise didn't have to mean much of a hand, since he was raising someone who bet from a late position after 3 players had already checked. If the button thought the flop bettor was weak or on a steal, he could have raised with any pair or draw, and then had to call the reraise as long as he had 4 or more outs (which would be pretty much any time he wasn't on a stone cold bluff).

In no limit if we pushed all of our chips in or if there is an all in hand in limit certainly this hand would often be considered the best hand going because there is no turn betting and there are 2 shots to make the best hand on the odds favor making a hand. But here we have turn betting and a blank on the turn will make this hand a dog to a made hand. I think that indeed this is a semi-bluff hand given what is written by Oz.

I overlooked the fact that an ace on the turn gives you a straight so ignore my remarks concerning having an ace turn up. Nevertheless, I think following through with a bet on fourth is right for the other reasons given.

I think that there a lot of hands that someone would fold to a turn bet. The chance that he will fold on the flop is not nearly as high, and in fact I think the main purpose of the three-bet on the flop is to set up a semibluff on the turn.