Is This A Call?

You have ten nine of diamonds in the big blind. Early position, tough player, raises and gets two calls, one of them is the small blind. You obviusly call. Flop is Jd 6h 2s. You check. Raiser bets and it is folded to you. Should you call an all in bet here? What about if you both have plenty of money?

Should you call an all in bet here?


Yes


What about if you both have plenty of money?


No

David,


With a backdoor flush and backdoor straight and your one opponent bets all in it is an easy call. You can't get charged to draw to the flush and straight, which is better than getting charged and getting paid off by far. You can also win by pairing the ten or the nine to beat overcards (that don't redraw) or pair both cards to win against an overpair. Since this isn't an easy hand to value bet, you like the fact that the betting is over.


If you both have plenty of chips it is closer but still a call. With one opponent you can't get jammed to draw and will usually get paid off. You can still win by pairing when he doesn't have an overpair.


You didn't ask but I think it is a fold if you are deep and have two opponents with plenty of chips post flop and the same odds (e.g., there was one less caller pre flop but he stuck post flop). Now it could cost you far more to draw and pairing the undercard probably won't win it for you.


Regards,


Rick

Rick,


With all due respect, I don't like the call when you both have chips. If you're against an overpair you definately don't have the odds to continue. Also, what happens if you make a pair on the turn? Bet? What if you're raised(muck, cost a bb)? Check-call? Then what about when you face a bet on the river? What if you pick up a draw and then pair the river and face a bet? If you make runner-runner you might not even get paid off. If you are up against, say AK(which did have you beat the whole way) you won't get called and you often won't get bet into if you try for a check-raise. So to really get paid off well(well enough for the longrun if this is possible and I don't think it is) you need to have been up against a hand that you weren't correct to draw against in the first place(this is kind of like what they call a paradox, right?). Finally, you could make runner-runner and still lose to a better flush, a full-house or even possibly an A-Ts(for nut straight, though I realize that this last possibility is very remote). I can't imagine how much money I could lose in these situations in the long run if I call the flop bet; otherwise I can't imagine how well I'd have to play to turn this situation into a positive EV. Of course, I never stop trying to learn and if I'm mistaken about this situation, this play is just going to have to be "out of my league" for a while.


Mike

My "Highly Speculative" calculation says the odds you'll make flush, straight or straight flush is about 12 - 1. Although you might be able to win with a pair, two-pair or trips, you can also lose with flush, straight, a pair, or two-pair, so let's conveniently assume that the odds is still 12 - 1.


Only 9 bets is in the pot, so it's wrong to call all-in.


If tough player has money, I still don't call. Basically I agree with what Mike says.


Soh


p.s. ...hope David will give the answer by the end of this year :-)

So there are 8 SB in the pot before the flop as I read it. The extra bet on the flop means that you only need to win 1 in 10 times to break even. You have a backdoor flush draw (which will hook up 4% of the time) and a runner-runner straight draw (catching 7-8, a 2.5% shot). You also have odds for running trips (probably good, happens 0.5%), running 2-pair (maybe good, but with the possible overpair, not as likely). Also, he may have AK or AQs, so catching even one pair gives you a shot at the pot. This is an easy call with no more betting possible, even if you know the guy's got an overpair.


If there is more betting possible, I'd call the flop bet and fold if I didn't catch something good on the turn.

When he is all-in, you have a no-brainer call.


If you both have money, there are 9 small bets when it is your turn to act. You have two backdoor draws and possibly also 6 outs to a pair. There are 4 cards that could come on the turn which would give you 12 to 15 outs (and possibly 18 to 21 if your pair outs are still good). The backdoor draw will cost you 3 small bets to chase to the river but you can probably expect to be paid off on the river (or possibly even have a checkraise paid off) because the draws are backdoor.


Also, the tough player who raised UTG will likely check AK/AQ on the river if unimproved so if you happen to hit a pair on the turn and river, you probably will not face a bet when you are ahead i.e. you will not inadvertently throw away a winner.


I think that the decision is close but I would call.


As Rick said, I would be less likely to call against two opponents i.e. the preflop raiser and some other guy who hung around to make a call on the flop. This is because my pair outs are probably no good and also, there's a chance that it will cost me more than 3 small bets to try and complete my backdoor draw.

Since I cannot collect any more bets when I hit in this case I would fold to the all-in. I would call if he has chips.


KJS

Mike,


Even though AK leads you your not that far behind even with chips. So a lot depends on how often you are up against an overpair and how often he will press overcards like he would an overpair (this is generally bad for you if he does it about the correct frequency). I have to pass on the math since I've got a lot on my plate today but it probably depends on assumptions quite a bit.


Regards,


Rick

Rick,


"Even though AK leads you your not that far behind even with chips."


Really? I don't mean to sound snotty, but six outs or runner-runner seems pretty far behind to me and that's if any of those six outs or runner-runner are good.


"So a lot depends on how often you are up against an overpair and how often he will press overcards like he would an overpair (this is generally bad for you if he does it about the correct frequency)."


Hard to know if you're up against an overpair or not. All but the most timid opponents will often follow through on the turn with AK and many of these folks will often check the flop when they miss which leaves them out of this equation. Maybe this play is worth considering against someone who will almost always check the turn with unimproved overcards, I don't know--seems like one of those pretty marginal situations at best that we try to avoid in the first place.


Mike

I would call if he was all-in, since if I pair I don't lose any additional money when he has an overpair or top pair or even two tens. I would fold otherwise since my only clean outs are runner-runner which do not add enough value to merit risking additional money.

All in this is an easy call.


If both players have chips, this is a money eating situation, particularly out of position. Wait for a better spot.

The all in call should be an easy one, getting 9:1. Your backdoor flush/straight comes in just over 8% of the time, you make running trips/two pair another 1.4% of the time, and you make a pair with no A K or Q on board another 15% of the time. Even if you think pairing your T9 with no A K or Q on board will lose 30% of the time, this still leaves you with roughly 1:4 odds of winning the hand by the river.


If your opponent has chips, I still make the call although its now less profitable. Implied odds do not help you with your backdoor draws here, since the extra bet(s) you win when you hit will not make up for the (much more numerous) times you pick up one of your draws and go on to miss after paying an extra bet. However, I don't see this bringing your pot odds below the (very) rough 4:1 odds that you will make a winning hand by the end. You will be calling a bet (if opponent bets, anyway) on 24 of the 47 turn cards (a diamond, Q, T, 9, 8 or 7), which leaves you getting 3.7:1 (not counting bets you might win on the river) for calling both flop and turn in these 51% of cases where you have either the best hand with a pair, or 4-15 straight/flush outs with potentially another 6 pair outs.

Mike,


Don't worry about being snotty. I worked as a floorman and my skin is thicker than a hundred year old alligator.


The runner runner outs are almost always good and there is dead money from the other two player's fold which gives you odds. If you pair the turn you can bet. Generally if your opponent raises you are up against the overpair and now have a close call with five outs. Whether to call a river bet if you don't improve again depends on your opponent. If he just calls the turn you are usually leading.


I agree that catching a pair on the turn is marginally profitable from turn to river but catching a draw is clearly profitable from turn to river and you have odds on the flop to catch either. Put both situations together and you have a close call on the flop.


BTW, it is possible that you will catch a draw or an inside straight draw and your opponent will check the turn. This is great for you and makes the flop call even stronger.


Regards,


Rick

Very Good.


Let's assume opp will be an Early Raiser with:


AA, KK ,QQ, JJ, TT, AKany, AQany


You're 4.03 to 1 dog vs one Early Raiser.

Let's assume that the raiser's minimums are:


88 ATs KQs AQo


Then there are:


27 hands that have you drawing to runner-runner (AA KK QQ JJ TT AJs)


6 hands that have you drawing to 3 outs (99 ATs)


and 42 hands that have you drawing to 6 outs (88 AKs AQs KQs AKo AQo)


out of a possible 75 hands (equally likely) that he can have.


So, your probability of winning with two cards to come is:


(42/75) * [(6/45) + (39/45)*(6/44)] +

(6/75) * [(3/45) + (42/45)*(3/44)] +

(27/75) * [(22/45)*(8/44)] (approximate to including R.R. pairs, straights and flushes; 22 comes from any diamond, straight card, or pair. Against JJ he does not have all these outs, but again, this is an approximation to simplify analysis)


The above analysis also ignores your opponent's redraws.


= 0.141 + 0.014 + 0.032 = 0.183 => 4.46:1 dog


Rounding up to 5:1 (to take into account optimistic analysis which ignored opponent's redraws)


we see that, since you are getting 9:1, this is a clear call for the case that he is all-in.


When he has money left, your effective odds are cut down severely. Let's assume that he always bets the turn. Also, let's assume that you get paid off on the river if he has at least one pair. Then, roughly one half of the time, you are getting 11:3 and one half of the time you are getting 13:3, which gives you 12:3, which is 4:1 effective pot odds. So it looks to me like this is a marginal fold.


-SDman

to the both have chips conundrum of course, and give your tough opponent a chance to make a "fundamental" mistake or two. A semi-bluff check raise will put some pressure on your opponent and add some deception to your game. Not every time mind you, but enough to make YOU a tough unpredictable player in your opponents eyes. There is a lot of dead money in the pot, raising may be more correct than calling.

Great point re: opponent checking the turn. Not everyone always bets the turn with AK/AQ here. So, you might get two cards for your 1 sb investment on the flop and you might also be able to bluff on the river if he checks on the turn.

Thanks Coliean. I was just trying to be contrarian because I thought David was being tricky. You are certainly right on your calculations.


KJS

Wow, I'm really surprised that so many posters here think that the second call is good, not to disrespect anybody. As I've said here before, I think that I tend to play slightly on loose side of very tight(correctly, I hope), though, admittedly my "looseness" is usually more preflop than postflop. I've worked very hard on my discipline and have been pretty pleased with my effort and results. I just keep thinking that the rationale of some of the above posts, include an awful lot of "ifs" and that marginality(is this a word?) of this situation is another one of those that can only increase our standard deviation, without very much enhancing our long-term earn. Besides, where do you draw the line? Right here at T-9s? 9-8s or 8-7s, with the same type of draws(?)? Obviously, as we go down in suited connectors the likely-hood of a pair being good decrease(when the raiser has a medium pocket pair). It just seems to be a very fine line we're treading on here, and if nothing else I believe that great caution with this situation should be stressed here for the sake of those newer to the game and those predisposed to bad habits(myself included, I guess). Mucking this hand couldn't possibly be giving up more than a microscopic edge and I for one don't think I want to fool with it(though I'm sure that I'll keep thinking about it for a while anyway); unless David has something earthshatteringly positive(again, no disrespect meant to any of those who have obviously put some thought into this and have shown proof of its +EV) to say about it, in which case I suppose that I'll just have to think about it even more. Silly me, still always quick to challenge authority.


Mike

Second question:


Assuming a 10-20 game with no rake:


UTG holds TT-AA, AK, AQ.


Flop goes check-bet-call


Turn goes check-bet-call (T9s calls only with a pair, flush or straight draw)


River action depends on the situation/board. The T9s does fold with one pair with two overcards but not one. Action varies depending on the board, but most often UTG folds to a bet on the river with unimproved overcards or checks behind when checked to. T9s does not exploit this.


T9s has a positive EV of about $2.50 over folding on flop. I do not believe that a UTG counter strategy can change this, although that would require some further work.


The fulcrum hand range of the opponent does matter, but is beyond the scope of the question.


Regards.


PS. Unrelated. The old T9s early with a board of A 6 7 with one suited to the T9s. I ran approximately 20 simulations. 6 handed raised pot. Betting and or raising on the flop with T9s outperforms by at least two dollars (10-20) the traditional passive approach. As says HPFAP (maybe not the amount). The results are of course preliminary. 20 sims is not enough to ascertain such complex truths.

There's nothing wrong with challenging anyone (authorities included) as long as you keep an open mind, which I am nearly positive that you do from reading many of your posts. I think both sides benefit from a good debate, as long as it stays civil. /images/wink.gif


Anyway, the flop call is pretty marginal if your opponent has more chips to bet with, but I think it's still probably worth it. I go into a bit more detail in my response to KJS, but basically you have something close to 1:4 odds to make a winning hand by the river. If you factor in a call on the turn, you are paying 1.5 bets to win 5.5 bets, making your pot odds about 3.7:1 if you have to call a turn bet. This is improved somewhat by the fact that about half the time you won't be calling a bet on the turn (because you didn't pick up anything), you might win extra bets on the river if you hit a flush/straight (implied odds), and sometimes your opponent won't bet on the turn, which may allow you to improve for free or steal the pot with a river bet.


The biggest problem with continuing to play is when you make a pair but still lose. This probably costs you 2.5 bets when it happens, but with your position you are unlikely to win more than 1.5 bets when your pair is good. However, as long as your pair is good at least 38% of the time you hit it, this an even odds wash for the money you put in after the flop, which certainly makes it worthwhile with 9 small bets of dead money in the pot to also consider.

You make a good point here. David's phrasing of the question kind of kept the discussion focused on whether to call, rather than thinking of other ways to play the hand. But I agree a raise is definitely one way to play the hand if you decide to continue.

"so let's conveniently assume that the odds is still 12 - 1."


Then,


"Only 9 bets is in the pot, so it's wrong to call all-in."


If this were true, then you ARE getting correct odds over two cards.

Well said.

Coilean,


I posed this situation above in one of my early responses to Rick, I said/asked if there is something paradoxical about the implied odds where you "know" that you have implied odds based on further action because of what your opponent holds.


If you "know" that your opponent has a pair, aren't you then NOT correct to continue? If you are correct to continue when your opponent does not have a pair(even though he still almost surely has you beat) don't your implied odds decrease since any hand that you make that would allow you bet or check-raise the river may not be called or bet for you? Of course this doesn't take into account what pair(or overcards) your opponent may have, but it seems to me that there are more(or atleast as many) possibilities where this whole thing can blow up in your face. When opponent makes a bigger flush, when he fills when you make a flush, etc. What if your opponent held 99 or TT, are the odds right here? What about when about if you pair the turn and your opponent continues to bet, representing his bigger pair, I can't remember exactly how many bets are in the pot at this point, but I'm pretty sure that you don't have quite the odds to continue for what is likely only a five-outer. I just think that there are an awful lot of "ifs" about this situation and wonder where someone would/could draw the line as similar situations become increasingly less favorable. I could go on and on(obviously) but again my main question is about the paradox(?) that I asked about above, and I suppose, where you would draw the line as rank of your suited-connectors decline with similar back-door flop opportunities.


Mike

Pokerguy,


Thanks buddy, I feel pretty unwavering about this but can't help but wonder about all the dissenting opinions(from my own, of course /images/wink.gif ) from posters whose opinions I respect. Can't wait to see if David checks back in, and what he has to say.


Mike

Kevin,


I was wrong. According to Sklansky, calling is the profitable play, whether the guy is all-in or not.


Soh