54s preflop play, please read ye experts.

im not happy with the responses im getting over in the general theory section so im posting this here for all the experts i so respect to either tell me im sane or tell me im a big dumb fish, that im only on ray zee's 3rd level (LA), and all the other insulting things ive been hearing. until i hear from at least two of the truly brilliant pros around here (coilean, skp, tommy, mason, et al) that im just pathetic for my preflop play on this hand i will assume im correct in what ive done. sorry for the crossposting.


----------------------------------------


was debating with KJS on another forum the merit or lack thereof of a play i made the other day in a loose, but not particularly aggressive 6-12 hold em 9 handed table. im two from utg and utg who is a decent player raises, next guy who is a clueless moron cold calls, i call with 54s. i did so because there were at least 3 other very clueless any 2 card fish behind me including the big blind. when i say fish i mean ANY 2 cards are possible and they will likely misplay them postflop.


so is my call here with 54s good or bad? assuming i can use odds calculations and good reads on the other players post-flop, is this a positive EV situation for me? or is this taking the idea of adjusting to a loose game too far?


please only reply if you have some genuine idea of what it is youre talking about. thanks.

Seems to me that you got some intelligent responses and one rather cryptic one but no one was insulting. Now you ask flat out for someone to "tell me i'm a big dumb fish". Why? So you can discount them for disagreeing as well? I thought you didn't appreciate insults? It appears you will keep asking until you hear what you want to hear.


I'll vote again here for those who have not ventured over to the General Theory forum. Your hand is a very very bad one, you have bad position, A decent UTG has raised, and even if you get some callers behind you (to very minorly justify a very loose call) it is very unlikely that you will flop a hand even close to the nuts (or even a near-nut draw) with 54s. Muck it as fast as you can.


KJS

I know I am not one of the mentioned pros, but I don't think this is a very difficult question. The UTG raises with a good hand of at least AJ, probably higher. Moron could have anything. There are three other players calling with anything (all 4 of these players probably have better hands than yours rank-wise). Any of the other 5 players who calls or raises has a better hand than you. You will need at a minimum two pair to win because of the fish playing to the end.


Also, you will not be able to make good reads on 4 fish IMO, but at least they will not put you to a test when you push marginal hands. ABC is the best way to play a game like this.


Fold, Fold, Fold.

I'm not one of the aforementioned experts, but this is a clear fold. You have horrible position, you have a bad hand, and you're going to have to pay multiple bets to play it.


Calling an UTG raise and cold call third in with 45s is equivalent to limping UTG with 68o. You'd have to be a pretty fantastic player at the worst table I've ever seen to make this play +EV.

Fold this hand it is too weak in this spot, if the game is agressive it is even worse. If the game is passive and ultra loose your call probably costs you very little but why do it even if it costs a buck in the long run? I might be wrong on that, it might actually be more then a tiny loser I'm not 100% sure, but folding IS the best play and I am 100% sure about that.

I'm a recreational, occasional player, not a pro, and you'll have to judge for yourself if I have a genuine idea of what I'm talking about. But for what it's worth, in my experience:


1)The best games are games full of players who cold call raises.


2)Drawing hands are best when you can get in cheaply in good position and get to the river cheaply.


3) Even clueless morons get good cards, and are more likely to have them when they cold call a raise.


4) When a decent player raises UTG, such raise should be treated with respect.


5) If you asked me if I would like to play in a game where someone calls my pre-flop raise with 5-4s, the answer would be yes.


6) Low suited connectors run the risk, in a loose game, of making a straight or a flush that can be beaten by a bigger straight or flush.


7) I prefer to have players who can have any two cards in front of me.

"it is very unlikely that you will flop a hand even close to the nuts (or even a near-nut draw) with 54s."


this isnt omaha. hold em is not a nut game. especially against bad players in a loose game. if you are overly concerned about being nut or near nut with your draws in a loose game, you will not win as much as you can, and you may even find those types of games unbeatable.


"Muck it as fast as you can"


i hate doing what im about to do because i always inevitably get accused of not thinking for myself, but here goes:


hpfap, page 16:


"54s group 6"


page 18:


"In a loose game, as long as the players are not too aggressive, you can add the group 5 hands, especially the suited connectors."


hpfap, page 24 (early position, the first two cards):


"One criteria to keep in mind when deciding to play a small pair or a medium to SMALL suited connectoris how passive/aggressive the game is, in addition to its being loose." (emphasis mine)


page 25:


"If the game is passive, you prefer the suited connector to the small pair. This is because a "set" will have trouble collecting a lot of bets. On the other hand, if the suited connector flops something like a gutshot draw it won't necessarily be out of the pot."


page 173:


"If your hand is suited in these loose games it is a giant advantage."


page 180:


"Bad players who play too many hands and go to far with their hands are ideal opponents. But you must make significant adjustments to exploit them to the fullest. This includes what hands you play before the flop, which hands you raise with and which ones you dont, and how you play those hands on the later streets."

"If the game is passive and ultra loose your call probably costs you very little but why do it even if it costs a buck in the long run?"


because the pot is big and i will make up for the -EV preflop

by playing it very well postflop.


would any of you call with 77 if you thought 3-4 more people would cold call behind you (say you were 75% certain)? if you would call with 77 then why wouldnt you call with 54s?

Mike,


I don't have my copy of HPFAP in front of me at the moment. Can you find the page where it says what hands it recommends playing FOR A RAISE in early position and middle position (I am still unsure if you were third or fourth to act in the hand in question). If I am not correct it recommends only cold calling with Group 1 or 2 (3 if a loose game) in early position and Group 1-3 in middle position. As you stated, 54s is Group 6.


I think your continual revision of this situation (such as not quoting any portions of HPFAP regarding playing FOR A RAISE above) is clouding the issue. I agree with what Sklansky and Malmuth have said about small suited connectors in loose games. Thanks for the review. I just don't think they apply in a situation where a "decent player" (your words) raises UTG, someone cold calls and its up to you to decide how to proceed.


But like I said when this all started--its your money, spend it how you wish.


KJS

You forgot to mention me in your list of brillant pros hehe...


I definitely fold this hand for 2 bets and 99% of the time for one bet (I can theoretically imagine a game so juicy that I would play it for one bet in this position but I have never been in this game with this hand....).


Shawn

54s isn't even a hand worth limping with in middle position.


One of the ways I pick out weak players is by the hands they cold-call raises with pre-flop. andy fox just said above "The best games are games full of players who cold call raises (with hands that don't warrant it). When a decent early position player raises pre-flop, I would only call with premium cards.


For more discussion of this kind of topick I refer you to a Small Stakes topic I posted on 10/30/01 titled "Folding 99 pre-flop for a raise". That's right mike l., I'll fold 99 (three hand groups higher than your 54s) if a good early positio player raises pre-flop. I also reccomend you read John Feeney's "Inside the Poker Mind" or at least his article about cold-calling early position pre-flop raises. In it, he reccomends folding AQo aginst this type of pre-flop raise. There's a huge discussion of this in the archives (unfortunately, many of the posts are deleted). You can find the exact date of the archived posts in the 99 post discussion.


Players who cold-call raises with 54s (and other weak hands) are the players who make the game profitable for others.

Mike,


I don't understand your talk about making up EV. How does one going about doing that? Can you give me a couple examples using the starting hand in question. Thanks.


KJS

I hate to do this, too, because you think I'm an idiot and you will hate me even more, but I really think you are hunting for justification for a weak position and stretching these quotes accordingly.


"In a loose game, as long as the players are not too aggressive, you can add the group 5 hands, especially the suited connectors."


If you are willing to put stock in the groupings, what does this have to do with the "group 6" 54s being discussed? Is an UTG raise by an ok player too aggressive or not too aggressive? Maybe it is, maybe it is not. You were there...


"If the game is passive...."


Is a UTG raise by an ok player considered "passive"? Same thing as above.


What about a sim? I can't do it, but someone probably could. That would at least add some fuel one way or another.

Because 77 is much more profitable in this situation, you usually either flop a set or dump it, still playing 77 in this spot is somewhat marginal although probably correct if you can anticipate 5 opponents.... with 54s you can easily get rapped by a fish with a bigger flush (you won't be laughing when they flip that J6s in your face).... your top pair is crappy, your straight is piss poor....


GL


Shawn

Third sentence above should read "I am not mistaken" not "If I am not correct". Duh.


KJS

"would any of you call with 77 if you thought 3-4 more people would cold call behind you (say you were 75% certain)? "


Against a decent UTG raise, 77 is an easy fold. So is 88. I'd fold 99 too. I'd fold AQo most of the time.


You have a gaping hole in your pre-flop play. Find John Feeney's article "Do You Pass the Ace-Queen Test?". It will give you a lot to think about. You don't have to agree with what Feeney says. Many people don't. But it should get you started in patching up that hole.

you are right that it does not say to call something like that for a raise. the preflop section is primarily about typical reasonable games however. that's why there's a whole section just for very loose games, and that's why that section suggests playing all sorts of strange fishy sort of hands, provided you understand the big differences in loose games and know how to adjust your play for those games.


since i cannot "revise" my story anymore for fear of being told im twisting things around to my pov i will just leave it here for the time being. ive appreciated everyone's comments, some more than others.

"I don't understand your talk about making up EV. How does one going about doing that?"


i play a hand that is slightly -EV preflop. i then play it perfectly postflop (be that raising, calling, betting, checking, or folding when it is precisely correct to do so). in playing perfectly postflop in a big multiway pot i have made up whatever small amount of EV i have lost by playing a slightly substandard hand preflop.

"Because 77 is much more profitable in this situation, you usually either flop a set or dump it, still playing 77 in this spot is somewhat marginal although probably correct if you can anticipate 5 opponents.... with 54s you can easily get rapped by a fish with a bigger flush (you won't be laughing when they flip that J6s in your face).... your top pair is crappy, your straight is piss poor...."


with the 54s you either flop something of interest (straight or flush) or dump it as well. the great thing is there are ways to tell when someone is probably on a bigger draw, when someone has made a bigger hand, 54 makes the nut straight 3 ways and, as already mentioned in this thread, you usually dont need the nuts to win at hold em, even against 7 players. plus, in playing this suited conector in a loose game you will have people staying in till the river with middle pair and no redraw when you flopped a flush or straight, or turned it for that matter.


77 has many less flops that it likes multiway for a raise. even if you flop a set you have to be concerned with set over set, as well as straights and flushes getting there. if you flop a weak flush with 54s, you dont have to worry about someone making a set with their 33, or someone hitting their straight. but in very loose games bad players will stick around and pay you off huge amounts of big bets when they are drawing dead or very thin.

I haven't read the other posts, but I do have a clue. The problem with 54s is that many of your wins when you flop a straight or a flush are by catching a pair on the turn or the river. The problem with this hand is that it is much more difficult for a pair of fives to win as opposed to let's say a pair of jacks. So while I would agree with your call in the game that you describe if your suited-connector was higher, let's say at least 98s, I think that 54s will cost you money in the long run in this spot.

"That's right mike l., I'll fold 99 (three hand groups higher than your 54s) if a good early positio player raises pre-flop."


BFD, so would i sometimes. depends on the game and the player raising. dont be so condescending.


"I also reccomend you read John Feeney's "Inside the Poker Mind" or at least his article about cold-calling early position pre-flop raises. In it, he reccomends folding AQo aginst this type of pre-flop raise."


yes im very familiar with it. AQo is garabage in many situations.

i understand about big unsuited dominated cards and i understand about small suited connectors (or thought i did). i was the person on here a couple weeks ago asking if i could fold AKo in certain situations.

"I think that 54s will cost you money in the long run in this spot."


can this -EV be overcome by excellent play postflop against several (3-5) very bad players in a very large pot? or is that too ambitious?

Fold. It's not even remotely close. Maybe call 1 from the cutoff or button if there are a few limpers. The only way to make up the EV postflop is to steal chips from the player next to you while he/she is not looking. If the game is so loose, people will be playing any suited. If this happens you will lose to a higher flush when you make your flush 20-25% of the time. This is when there are exactly 3 of your suit on the board, not including when you make it on the flop or the turn and the 4th suited card hits later. It is also very easy to be on the idiot end of a strait. If you flop trips, you will easily be outkicked. If you end up with 2-pair, you can't have any confidence in it. I think this hand is a nightmare to play postflop, especially out of position. I doubt anyone could play it perfectly. For instance, what if you hold


5h4h


and the flop is


7h Jc 4d.


There is a bet to you. There were 7 players preflop. You are getting well over 14-1 on your call, but you can still be raised behind. You have a backdoor flush and backdoor straight draw, but they are virtually worthless. You have a pair, and you easily have odds to draw for 2-pair or trips, but will these hands actually be good? Who knows?


If you call...


The turn is the 5c. You now have 2-pair, but anyone and everyone is probably drawing to a better 2-pair, has a set, 68, 63, or has a flush draw at this point. You probably have to bet, but what if you get raised? What if someone bets into you? Do you raise not knowing what the people behind you will do?


I actually did not make this scenario as hard as is could be; this one isn't near the worst case.


I'm not trying to berate you, I am just explaining why I don't play this hand or ones like it.


Good luck,


Glenn

You keep insulting people who are trying to give you good advice. I wasn't being condescending. Why are you posting this question if your going to fire insults at people who disagree with you?

"i play a hand that is slightly -EV preflop. i then play it perfectly postflop "


Do you understand how this sounds? In my experience, players who make extremely loose pre-flop calls don't even play well after the flop. They continue to make errors in judgement all the way to the river.

How do you know you are a perfect post-flop player? Does anyone play perfectly post-flop all the time? That seems a bit ambitious to me.


Would you be able to fold if the flop came 8h7h6c when you have 5s4s? How would you know someone who raises you has T9 and not Ahxh, Jh9h, 88 or some other hand? How would know that the three callers you get on this flop are all drawing, and none of them already has you beat and is slowplaying? How do you know that you are automatically couterfeited with the 3rd heart hits or the board pairs? How do you know to fold a flopped flush because its not big enough to win? Are your reads 100% accurate? This is just one example of times that the flop is especially favorable for you.


This hands seems very difficult to play after the flop because it can get in so many 2nd best situations. Stating that you can play perfectly in all of these (especially knowing when to fold) seems to be a very lofty claim.


KJS

because rarely have the comments been any good. they pretty much say "i wouldnt play this, bad players play this." gee, that's a really helpful criticism. they havent been taking into account the size of the pot, how bad the other players play, etc, etc.

mason actually posted something useful in his post. he used theory and experience to answer the question. that's why i asked for the comments of just a slim few posters, i wanted GOOD helpful answers that i could sink my teeth into.


you cant tell me the tone of this sentence you wrote isnt even a little condescending?:


"That's right mike l., I'll fold 99 (three hand groups higher than your 54s) if a good early position player raises pre-flop."

"Would you be able to fold if the flop came 8h7h6c when you have 5s4s? How would you know someone who raises you has T9 and not Ahxh, Jh9h, 88 or some other hand? How would know that the three callers you get on this flop are all drawing, and none of them already has you beat and is slowplaying? How do you know that you are automatically couterfeited with the 3rd heart hits or the board pairs? How do you know to fold a flopped flush because its not big enough to win? Are your reads 100% accurate? This is just one example of times that the flop is especially favorable for you."


actually this is one of the less favorable flops. weak loose players with a draw would slow down on the turn and players

slowplaying would raise on the turn. it would be fairly easy to determine when you were beat, coordinated flops like this keep BAD players honest. it would be a nightmare if i were against good and/or tricky players.


obviously no one plays perfectly and no one's reads are 100% accurate. i do have enough confidence in my skills though to play this hand in this position against this weak of a field. i would indeed be terrified to play it against even slightly more sophisticated players.


something that you point out here though is that the play is certainly high variance, even if it's debatable whether it's possible for it to be +EV (apparently it isnt from the overwhelming response).


thanks for posting something substantial on the subject.

I don't think that you can make enough money here for 2 reasons.


1. It might get raised behind you - this is a problem. Many clueless players will raise hands that don't merit it, but this kills any implied odds that you may be getting. You would of course have to call a single raise behind you.


2. The flops that you can hit & make money on are limited. You need a straight and or flush draw to be happy to continue - even then, I'd be a little concerned. A flush might be more susceptible to getting cracked by morons than by good players, since they will play any 2 suited cards, like 8-2s, which is a ragged hand, but will beat your flush nonetheless. They will also play more hands that can kill your straight - namely unsuited crap that better players would never considder. You cannot win with a pair in a showdown, and even 2-pair is dangerous, since there's a straight draw in this situation.


I'd dump this hand, especially in mid position. In a 6-12 game it's right to play it on the button in Northern Cali, where a 3 dollar drop is live (costing you 3 bucks to play) and probably correct in other loose, weak games where you can play last - but it's not a powerhouse in those situations either.

I learned a lot from this discussion. I play in Seattle were the games are much tighter as a rule so I admit I am far from an expert on this type of game. It has helped me to see the adjustments that have to be made. Glad we got so many people involved.


KJS

Your 45s could win the biggest pot of your lifetime. You could make quad 5's against Aces full and Kings full, or a straight flush v. quads, etc. It's your money and it's called gambling for a reason. If you want to play it, go ahead. What everyone is trying to tell you is there are much better places to put your chips in than calling raises with small, suited cards out of position.


PG

You have got to be kidding me Mike. How the hell do you think you can play anywhere near perfect post flop yet you would be "terrified" against better players?!?!!?!? This is tomfoolery if I do say so myself. If you were some expert you would be able to play well postflop against good players and bad players alike- just because your competition is better this will not make your play worse- it just may not be as effective, there is a big difference betwwen those two things.

Also this whole idea of making up EV isn't relevant because the point of not calling before the flop with a hand is for precisely the reason that it is impossible to do this unless you are a genius like Ray Zee or somebody of that caliber.

Finally playing perfectly post flop is something that rarely matters much with drawing hands- these hands are much more straight forward so sticky situations don't come up all that often. The times perfect play matter is when you are playing one pair type hands where you have great judgement when to make bets, raises laydowns etc..... this is the kind of thing that happens on a regular basis in holdem and allows for "making up ground". Just because you run into tricky situations like flopping the bottom end of a straight a few times a year, wont present enough opportunities to really outplay opponents out of much money post flop anyway.

I am way behind on my Forum reading (busy at work and expect it to remain that way for another 10 days). As such, I have not read any of the replies or the other thread you speak of in the other Forum. But apparently I'm a brilliant pro...hehe...NOT!


...but anyway, I think that you have to have several things working for you to make this a *marginal* call:


1. You must anticipate multiway action (and it seems like you will get it here given what you have said so this criterion is satisfied).


2. Your opponents (particularly those behind you if we are to assume that the UTG preflop raiser will likely bet the flop) must not be particularly aggressive. This is because with a hand like 54s, you generally will not flop a made hand. You may flop a draw and when you do, you don't want to be paying through your nose particualrly on the turn. Paying through your nose on the flop has some good news/bad news. The good news is that if several people are paying through their nose, you are not minding it too much if you go on to hit. But the bad news is of course that the chances of running into a bigger flush are magnified. All in all, all I am saying is that the players better be passive postflop (note that if you had a small pocket pair in this situation, you would want the players to be aggressive postflop).


3. You must play very well postflop. Actually, more correctly put, you need to have opponents who play extremely poorly postflop.


I suppose I could go on to list several other reasons why this call might be corrrect. But, in general, I think that your position ain't good enough to play this hand. You will be facing pressure postflop from your immediate right. The two blinds (if they play) will likely go for a checkraise if they hit a big hand so the fact that they checked to UTG will not tell you as much as checks normally do. There are several players left to act behind you who may make it expensive for you to chase. You may find youreslf calling with a pair or a gutshot on the flop only to have it raised behind you and perhaps 3 bet by the UTG. On the other hand, if you had the button, you could conceivably call on the flop with just a pair or a gutshot (perhaps even for a raise) because you know that if you make your hand on the turn, you can effectively double the pot on the turn if UTG bets again on the turn (and going into the hand, the most likely turn bettor is UTG).


Anyway, I am rambling but to me, the hand is too weak to call when you are CW2 i.e. just 2 to the left of the UTG raiser in a clockwise direction. You have a better case for calling on the button where you will be CCW3 i.e. 3 to the right of the button in a counterclockwise direction (although even then, you will need to have criterion 2 and 3 listed above working for you).

"All in all, all I am saying is that the players better be passive postflop (note that if you had a small pocket pair in this situation, you would want the players to be aggressive postflop)."


yeah i know that. good point. and point taken about position being not good enough here.


in this case actually all 3 of your requirements were certainly met. that's why i chose to call with it.


thanks for your comments. do you realise that besides me you are the only person who thought this hand was even remotely worth playing?


i really respect your opinion from other things ive seen you write on here, so this is reassuring me that im not completely crazy.

Often times, your position in relation to the anticipated bettor on the next round of betting is more important than your position in relation to the button.


To illustrate, suppose you had 5 limpers before the cut-off raises. You have 54s on the button. Well, I don't like your position and would recommend that you fold preflop. This is because in most games, you have the gaggle of limpers checking automatically to the preflop raiser and the preflop raiser automatically betting. You have gained zero information on the players. But if UTG raises and 5 or 6 guys call and you make that marginal call with 54s on the button, the postflop action should reveal a lot and you can play postflop accordingly.

"Your 45s could win the biggest pot of your lifetime. You could make quad 5's against Aces full and Kings full, or a straight flush v. quads, etc. It's your money and it's called gambling for a reason. If you want to play it, go ahead. What everyone is trying to tell you is there are much better places to put your chips in than calling raises with small, suited cards out of position."


gee thanks for completely wasting our time with your simplistic pointless attempt at being a smartass. i understand what everyone else is saying and i understand that i *could* win a big pot. i wasnt asking if i could win though, i was asking:


"can this -EV be overcome by excellent play postflop against several (3-5) very bad players in a very large pot? or is that too ambitious?"


if you want to try to intelligently add something to the discussion and directly answer my question then please speak up. otherwise why dont you keep your trap shut?

Mike,


Wow, there sure a lot of responses(experts) here--I haven't looked at any of them yet(but will). Figured that I'd throw in my two cents without any other influence, so here goes.


This type of spot should not be a long run big loser for you IF you are VERY selective about when you get involved in this type of spot AND play well otherwise. The issues that I would point to include: do you look for reasons(such as those you mentioned) to routinely get involved in marginal spots like this and you should definately consider your position when calling two(or more?) bets cold with a pure drawing hand. Of the first issue, I would suggest that you be certain that you are not "rationalizing" plays like this (semi)routinely, otherwise you could have a serious leak here. If however, you realize that you a playing in such a spot as a pure abberation, and you realize that you are "gambling" a little bit here, I suppose that's not going to hurt too much in the long run. Easy for me to say, I find that the longer I play, the less inclined I am to get involved in such marginal spots. This brings me to the second issue, which is that when making marginal plays with what is likely to be at best not much above a zero EV, all other things being equal, I'd prefer to have much better position when making a call like this; its too easy to get trapped for many more bets preflop and on the flop if you get a piece of it and hands like these are going to greatly increase your standard deviation without increasing your overall win rate. I know(though I haven't really done much of the math on it) that as I've weened myself off more of the marginal situations that my std dev is lower and my win rate has never been higher(recently, only six losses in over 50 sessions and hourly rate over a bet and half/hr, obviously I'm not runnin' too bad either). Anyway I suspect that no expert is going to tell you that this is a good play, the best that you're going to hear is that its very marginal at best. Just saw the title of Dynasty's post, about not even limping w/ this hand in this spot which is of course correct. You are definately losing nothing by not playing in either case and I've maybe been a little generous in my criticism(or lack thereof). Once in a blue moon isn't so bad but you are gambling here no matter how well you play after the flop.


Mike

Its a very bad call. Main reasons are your calling an early position raise with only one caller in between. You have no idea how many calls you will get behind you. And most of the time there will not be enough calls to make calling profitable. And you don't know how many bets you have to call preflop as there may be more raises coming. And thats if you played it perfectly. Which is very hard to do with such a marginal hand out of position. You will get punished playing this hand in this spot when you flop a draw or a peice of the flop because your out of position. I would never call a raise with this hand in this spot.

Mike,


There's a big difference between getting a piece of the flop with 77 or 54. With 77, yes, you either flop a set or dump it(unless maybe you flop an overpair and have some reason to believe its good). With 54s its not so easy. What about when you flop a pair w/ one or two backdoor draws or a gut shot? With so many bets already in the pot you will often have the right odds to continue and may still get trapped for extra bets, decreasing your overall odds while being correct to now call one or two more bets. Not only that, but your odds of flopping a straight or flush draw(or both) are only a little better than your odds of flopping a set EXCEPT that you do not now have a made hand and it can get pretty expensive to chase these draws and miss(not to mention the times you get there and are no good).

Finally, if you actually do flop or turn a straight or flush there will still likely be redraws against you.

Mike,


First of all, it seems to me that all the responses have been intended as constructive criticism even if they may not have been as detailed or thorough to your liking, mine included(both above and below) for all I know. I'm not interested in defending anyone else or my self, for that matter. In response to your question: "can this -EV be overcome by excellent play postflop against several (3-5) very bad players in a very large pot? or is that too ambitious?" I believe that the answer may be implied in one of Mason's Essays(don't remember if it was in I or II). In this essay he wanted to know what happened to a few of the "superstars" that were on the scene when he first arrived, he had thought that they played very well, but now they were out of action or struggling in smaller limit games. Mason asked someone about this(Ray Zee?), were these players not as good as he had first thought? His answer was that these players were good players, but they just played too many hands. We all know that good players can "get away with" playing a few more hands, but there is line which can be crossed which not only can the best players not overcome, but will ultimately take them down. It seems to me that most of the posters here (myself included, inspite of what I said below) are suggesting that this is one of those "too many" hands.


Mike

Oh my god, Mike's gonna freak if he reads my 9:30pm post, I better take cover.

I think you answered this yourself. Since it's a large pot and the other players are bad you will need to show the best hand.

There will be nothing (or extremely little) you can do to overcome the -EV.


You mention "excellent play after the flop". I believe that much of that involves folding.


Regards

Mike N

I must admit to being a little surprised at how strongly most disagree with the preflop call. Before reading the replies, I was pretty much of skp's opinion that this is a very marginal but maybe playable hand, as long as the table isn't aggressive and a few of the players are quite bad and loose. But I find myself convinced by Mason's argument that the hand has gone way down in value since you can't expect to win by pairing in a multiway showdown situation, and by Sunglasses Mike's point about this probably being one of the hands that some otherwise very strong players start playing too much and get themselves into trouble with in the long run.


Like skp, I'm also delighted with my recent promotion to "brilliant pro". And also, NOT! /images/wink.gif But I'm glad that others find my advice here useful.

I disagree. With pocket 77's either you flop a set or your out for the most part. With 45s there are many hands you will flop that will not be easy desicions. And will get trapped in for multiple bets alot of times because you will be in spots that you would be correct to take a card off but your lack of position will get you caught in between. And you said that you know when a bigger flush draw is out there? So your telling me that after the flop if you flop a flush draw you will lay it down sometimes because you know there is a bigger flush draw? This is not easy to fold once you flop a flush draw in a big pot. And I doubt you will be able to acurately lay dow a flush draw knowing a bigger one is out there. This is the point i'm trying to make. By playing this hand your forcing yourself to make very tough decisions that will either cost you a little bit if you play it perfectly! Which is not an easy task. And cost you alot if not played perfectly. As it is just not a profitable play period. Why put yourself in such a tough spot. You'll notice the less you put yourself in these tough spots, the easier the game becomes. And your swings will be huge playing these types of hands for raises. If your one to tilt when stuck big, these are the types of hands to get out of your game to lowere your fluctuations and lessen the chance of tilt. I hope this helps.

Judge for yourself what kind of genuine idea I have.


I would fold and here's why.


A hand like 54s has a couple of problems with it; obviously it cannot win unimproved. Certainly no debate about this!


So the question is what can it make that you will be happy with?


1) Trips or better? So the board has a 55 or a 44 on it. Great. You'll definitely be seeing the river and probably have a fairly good chance to win the pot. However, if you encounter resistance along the way, you will probably have to back down and cower at your end of the table and be shown someone's over-full house or better kicker. If you get any action when the board is 55xxx or 44xxx, there's a strong chance you might be beaten.


2) A straight? Well, the ideal is to make the bicycle, since it also puts an ace on board for people to get all hot and bothered about. I can't argue that if you make a bicycle, you'll probably make mucho dinero!


3) A flush? Same comments as 1); if anyone gives you action, you are probably going to be making crying calls and have no idea if you are going to win or not.


The basic problem with this hand is that it cannot make enough nut hands for you to bet aggressively enough to make a pot big enough to overcome all the times you are putting in two small bets preflop. You are going to lose two small bets a lot when you hit nothing. Or more when you hit and still lose (which will happen when the flop comes K-5-4 and you play strongly and get rivered by one of the various K-x hands spiking two pair). So, you need, when you make your hand, to be able to bet very strongly and make a very big pot. I just don't see enough boards where 54s in powerful enough to make it 3-bets at any point (which is the threshhold I use to decide if a hand is good or not; would I three-bet it?). Therefore, the pots you win will not, IMO, in the long run be equivalent to all the small hits you take on the way to that one pot.


There is some value in knowing its a loose game and that it will be a multiway pot. And that there are bad players in the game. But I think in the end that this hand will just so rarely develop into anything strong that in the long run it has to be a losing hand. I have played in a lot of games with VERY bad players, and my opinion is that there is no reason to get involved in marginal situations like this when I can wait a few hands and get in a much more profitable one. I remember a Hellmuth column where he said something like "I didn't win all my WSOP bracelets by getting into a bunch of coin flip situations". I think thats one of the most valuable pieces of advice I ever read in CP; if you are the best player on the table, spend some time contemplating how big your edge should be before you play a hand. Should you play marginally -EV situations expecting to be able to outplay your opposition? I don't think so. Why not play +EV situations only AND outplay your opposition afterwards too?


I and a couple of other 2+2'ers had a lengthy debate recently about win rate vs variance. I think in this case, even if you could prove that 54s is +EV for you in this game in this position for two bets, the accompanying variance increase that you would see would make it not worthwhile to play. You are going to see bigger swings, a larger bankroll requirement, and more tilt-inducing river losses. In the end, not worth the extra one tenth of a SB per hour to me (and thats assuming its +EV, which I somewhat doubt in any case).

You don't think your gonna get some condescending remarks when you post that the only people you want to here from are your so called "experts". On an open forum making comments like these your just asking people to rip you. If you don't want to here anybody elses opinion maybe you should ask your "experts" for there email address, and or phone number. Then you can talk more privately. Maybe that would be more intimate for you!

Goat,


No reason to take cover. I think the point of the essay was that even the BEST players(Mason and Ray included, I'm pretty sure that I'm not being too presumptuous) will ultimately lose if they play "too many hands." Again, hopefully not to be too presumptuous, I would expect that they would include this specific situation under the category of "too many hands", unless, as I stated below, it is a totally aberrational play, and even then it could still be considered "ONE too many"; not the kind of "ONE too many" as in: "the straw that broke the camel's back" but "ONE too many" as in: if this one becomes the first of many more or the beginning(or continuation) of a bad habit then: "there could be a storm on the horizon(sorry, figured what the hell, "ONE more" cliche couldn't hurt, or could it?)".


Good luck to all,


Mike

If you can expect several callers any pair will do. Conversely if the game is tight (not the raiser), reraising with a hand like 99 or AQo is often best. If the AQo is against a solid raiser then it's an easy muck but against a loose raiser it is certainly worth a reraise, unless the game is so loose that you'll just create a huge multiway pot.

""can this -EV be overcome by excellent play postflop against several (3-5) very bad players in a very large pot? or is that too ambitious?"


Mike


Until someone runs a sim and/or posts some definite numbers, I think this question has been answered for you as good as it's gonna get. You have some very excellent players telling you they wouldn't play the hand. Obviously, if they thought this hand could become +EV with good play, they would play it. To assume you're going to play this hand any better than some of these guys, is naive at best (no offense).

I think it's a clear fold. I'm surprised this question received such a large response

You won't get broke by folding in this situation. If there is a profit in calling which I doubt it's so small that it would make little difference in your outcome. A better call would be in late position (hopefully on the button) when many people have called a raise cold. The high cards might be counterfitted and the deck may have a lot of low cards.

Apparently just ask for responses only from people who have a clue what they're talking about. This thread is currently 51 posts long.

Andy,


You Rule!


Mike

i feel relieved that 2 of the people i listed as respecting here (skp and coilean) because of their consistent higher level thinking about the game in their posts thought it was a marginal (albeit troubling and potentitally dangerous), but not gawdawful call given the game conditions. thanks for replying.


i too thought sunglasses mike's argument was very thoughtful and useful.

hey thanks for answering my questions. you provide really well thought out explanations. of all the people here you have most convinced me of the marginalness of my call.


i was just getting tired of people who dont post substantial ideas in their posts, but are merely snide and haughty and and state their opinion without any significantly thought out evidence. sorry to be so snappy.

Mike,


Glad I could be of some help. I know that I've always found it easier to make good decisions in poker(and in life) when I knew and understood WHY they're good decisions. Don't get too upset when people give you unsatisfactory answers, keep askin' the questions(including to yourself) and the answers will come, as long as you stay open-minded(hope that didn't sound condescending, I mean it sincerely and try to live that way myself).


Mike

That's so true Andy.


And from looking at mike l.'s replies, it seems as if he's the first person every to go on tilt while discussing poker.

A lot of discussion here, but I figured I'd put my 2-cents in before reading the responses:


The biggest problem you face in cold calling 2-bets is whether someone behind you will raise again. You have a very limited variety of boards that are going to help you enough to win it, with the best being a wheel or 6/7 high straight, or a back-door flush. You want to miss your pairs because they can be troublesome and costly. Also, your other opportunities for winning the hand, such as thinning the field with semibluffs and bluffing the decent player off, are almost completely nil in LLHE. For these reasons, you probably want to, and should, fold it...


...most of the time...


However, I think that sometimes playing goofy hands isn't a bad idea, especially in LLHE where you can put a whole table on tilt and are almost always guranteed a good overlay for your risky venture. As long as you set severe guidelines on how to play the remainder of the hand, and can play well post-flop, there's little harm in taking one off. Just beware, it's a total dog and unless you really hit the flop solidly, you're going to lose your investment.


I think your description of the hand and the players involved is sufficient to justify seeing a flop every now and then. Just don't make a habit of it, even under those circumstances.

It's a fold. 54s under the best of circumstances is barely profitable. The raise, number of opponents and your position put you under water. The easy answer to this problem is to run a turbo sim where the players are even worse than they are in your game, and see if you can make the hand go positive. I haven't tried, but I'm pretty sure that you can't.