Heads up implied odds hand

[durron597]

Read on the button is that he's pretty tight, has been aggressive when he likes his hand, but normally folds to big bets from me.

Edit: adding some more facts about my table image; this guy was scared of me. I had worked my way from around 3500 to my preset 6800 stealing most of the pots (whether I had ace high or top pair or worse) and only showing down once I think.

Hero: T6810
Button: T8190

Hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, blinds are T100/T200

Preflop: Hero calls T100, Button checks.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero checks, Button bets 200, Hero.....

Do you call or fold here? Results in white below:

<font color="white">
Turn: Kh
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 4h
Hero checks, Button bets T1500, Hero raises to T6410 (all-in), Button calls T4910

Showdown:
Hero shows: 3C, 5C (a straight, 5 high)
Button shows: 8C, KC (two pair, Kings and 8s)
</font>

[BradleyT]

I always take one off in this situation. If I were him I would have bet harder into you on the flop since I knew you didn't have an ace (because you didn't raise PF).

He played it like a pussy and gave you your hand. I don't think there's any other way you could have played it.

[durron597]

The question is, do I have the numbers to make that call? I'm getting about 30:1 implied odds on making that call, assuming I can get his whole stack (ok, double up) on the times I do hit, and I'm 9:1 against to hit my card on the turn, with slightly worse than 4:1 against on the whole hand. Is it even worth it to call the 200 at all? Note: I think it is, but I posted the hand anyway to settle an argument with my friend.

[durron597]

Can I get another opinion on whether this is a good call? I know it's not the most interesting hand but a one word "yes" or "no" would suffice for me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[fnurt]

who knows? you certainly don't rate to get his whole stack if you hit, the only reason you got it in the actual hand is because he hit 2 pair on the turn. You don't know what he has from his flop bet, he might have a strong A and be willing to pay you off, he might be taking a stab at the pot with nothing and you'll never see another penny from him.

The exercise I suggest is this. Every time you make a call based on implied odds and then make your hand, keep track of whether you win the amount you banked on originally. My view is that most people tend to grossly overestimate their implied odds.

I don't have a problem with the call, but I couldn't tell you if it's mathematically justified. You can't normally calculate implied odds with that degree of precision.

[patrick dicaprio]

given the board here on the flop I dont think i would call. you dont have the implied odds that you think because he wont make a hand that can call for all of his chips of that will push in most of the time even when you hit your hand. just because it happened in this situation doesnt or shouldnt influence your thinking. i think raising here is better than calling.

Pat

[obex]

I'm am surprised more people haven't said that it was a terrible call. This is a no-brainer fold to me. I can see an argument for betting the flop, or even reraising him, but calling?

[durron597]

Well, the thing is that the 200 units were not that big a deal for me. As I said I had already ground my way up from 3500 taking down 80% of the pots; I felt he was waiting for a hand to take my whole stack; if I raise here, if he has the ace he comes back over the top and I don't get to see another card. I don't like the fold, because if I was going to fold here I should have folded my SB in the first place.

I'm not a fan of semibluffing (or pure bluffing) every single HU hand, because eventually he will call you with something and you'll miss your draw and lose your whole stack. I also don't like folding preflop with almost suited connectors; if 53s is not a good enough hand to complete with, the you will be folding a much higher percentage of your hands than you should be.

Honestly, if he had bet the turn hard (or even the minimum, probably) I would have folded here. At that point I just wouldn't even get odds to call him no matter how you slice it.

[Hood]

This seems totally crazy to me.

Completing with 35 in the SB? I don't like that. Fold if you don't want take take another hand. Or raise if you want. But limping seems awful. HU, a limp here just begs to get raised by the BB. What are you looking for on the flop? A made flush, a made straight, 2 pair, trips. That's about all you've got. Draws are no good when your in first with 2 players.

And calling on the flop I just don't get. You have 1 out. The fact that you've got a lot of chips I don't think is relevant. If you say this guy is scared of you, take advantage of it and raise PF or on the flop. But just weakly calling here just doesn't seem smart play.

[durron597]

So much of how I played this hand was player dependant.

A) 53s is a terrible hand unless I hit a favorable flop. However, I knew that he would not raise me preflop because the HU had been going on for awhile without a premium pocket, so I knew I would get to see the cheap flop.

B) I am sure this guy was looking for a huge hand to take down my aggressiveness with. If I came back over the top here, he would probably push all in and force me to fold. Calling here lets me see another cheap card for my 4 (not 1) outer.

C) If I wasn't confident I could easily get my 200 chips back on the next hand, I wouldn't have made this call.

D) With regards to folding preflop, against a passive player you HAVE to see EVERY flop. 3/4 of the time (if not more) you can take the pot down with a stone cold bluff. However on this hand since he bet into me on the flop I was sure he liked his hand in some way and was waiting for me to bet into the wrong pot. Even though he didn't have an ace here, I think he still would have called (I would have taken the pot anyway but I didn't know that).

E) For the above reasons, a call is the correct move to make here if the implied odds justifies it (otherwise I should just fold). However, I think I got lucky when he decided to slowplay his two pair on the turn which enabled me to get his entire stack. So I think that fnurt is right; I should keep track of the number of times implied odds gets me my opponent's entire stack (or the amount I figured I could get if I hit) and see how often I'm right. Here, I was, but only because he hit one of the five cards on the turn that would pay me off this well.

So I have a question for the really aggressive HU players (Jason Strasser etc.) on here: Assume I had been aggressive for most of the prior hands, stealing most pots with nothing either preflop or on the flop. Also, everytime I've seen a bet from my opponent it means he has middle pair or better. How would you have played this hand?