Got reraised - Call or Fold

[Prickly Pete]

With 7 left in a Party $200 SNG, blinds are 25-50. I have 530 left and it's folded to me in CO. I raise to 150 with 55. Button goes allin for 1000 (no read on Button). SB & BB fold.

What's the play?

[Chief911]

Although it only leaves you with 300, I think I'd fold.

At best you are a coinflip (AX large), at worst you are dominated (higher PP). I think a high PP is probably the raise. Even though you are invested at 150, I dont think that gives you the odds to call your final 370.

Just my opinion.

Nick

[soxfan70]

You'll have 7X the BB left if you fold. If you call I think at best your 50/50. There's got to be a better opportunity then this to double up. I fold.

[Jason Strasser]

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

This hand is right at the borderline. I would be very tempted to be in push/fold mode preflop, although this hand is close. I usually use 10x the BB as my guidance, and that is where you are at. So I'd probably push this preflop, although its a little fishy.

The reason I push this preflop, is because I hate making decisions like this one... I'd probably end up calling, but that's because there is too good of a chance he has overcards in this spot. But once again, not sure. I probably don't put myself in this spot.

[PrayingMantis]

The problem here, is that if you call all-in, what was the purpose of the 3xBB raise, if you don't lay it down?

These situation are very tough to play without a read. For example - I would raise 3xBB from CO with 55, if I know that BB will push with big variaty of hands - so I'm willing to call, and actually trying to induce a raise (55 is a bit problematic for this, though). Or - I know that I'm going to fold if X pushes against me, but call if Y does it. Otherwise, if you're not going to fold, I believe it's better to push from the start.

Another thought:

When I have ~500, and blinds are 25/50, any kind of move is problematic, like in this hand. That's why, with certain stacks and blinds, I might wait for the next level of blinds (50/100 here), in order to make a move (unless, of course, I have a much nicer hand than 55).

[deacsoft]

I lay it down and live to fight another day.

[Prickly Pete]

Well, of course I wouldn't be posting if I'd folded. I called with 55, button shows TT. Oops. Board comes A234x and I'm living large with a good beat. Button went bananas on me, even calling me his "meal ticket" at one point for making such atrocious plays. Of course, it didn't help that I sucked out on 2 more desperation steals against him in this and another game. (K9 vs 99 and K5 vs TT or something like that) I think I made the top of his buddy list even though I'd make those other 2 allins in my sleep.

Now let me try to rationalize the call:

Pot is 755 and 380 for me to call or 1.99 to 1.

His possible hands:
AA-66 (54 possible combos at approx 19% win for me)
AK-AJ (48 possible combos at apporx 53% win for me)

I know AJ may be pushing it, but so are 66-88 and this ignores the potential maniac moron factor that he might have A3. If my math is right, I'm a 1.86 to 1 underdog to this range of hands.

So it's very close either way. Actually I'd probably fold the hand if I had to do it again rather than raise. But given the response from my opponent, I'm glad I made the call. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Jason Strasser]

Why not push preflop? What's your argument against that?

[Prickly Pete]

I don't think pushing is awful, but you'll hate a call and you're risking 530 for only 75, so I'd probably pick folding first, pushing 2nd and what I did 3rd. But it's close in my opinion.

Then again, if you can "feel" those wheel cards coming... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot is 755 and 380 for me to call or 1.99 to 1.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is not the best way to look at it. Effective odds from the beginning of the action is a better way, i.e, you are putting 530 to win 605, if you are going to raise 3xBB and call an all-in. Again, it's marginally +CEV if you are facing over-cards, but with the option of higher pair, which is pretty probable, I'm not sure it's the best spot to gamble.

And pushing to begin with will probably increase, not by much, the EV of this move, IMO, since you get better folding equity.

Regarding tilting your opponent - well, that's always +EV...

[Prickly Pete]

I agree with what you're saying in general PM about looking at the entire hand ... but here (when doing the EV calculation), I was solely focusing on the decision of once I'd be reraised.

[Jason Strasser]

If I had 400 chips I'd push. I think if I had 700-800 chips I'd make a standard raise. In between is all gray to me, so I agree with your assesment Prickly...

And now that I know you are Festivus Pole, I know not to sit with joo any more! (or now I can at least tell you 'ni han' when you hit the wheel on me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif)