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View Full Version : I don't understand variance, how much is normal, etc.


steamboatin
06-17-2004, 07:10 AM
I understand that variance is part of poker, but I don't understand how much is normal and how to keep track.

JTrout
06-17-2004, 09:14 AM
Take your expected variance, then multiply that times 3....

Variance depends on many factors. What game you play, game conditions, your style, etc.

But it is usually much higer than we think/want.

Always play well within your means. Study. Gain experience. Keep good records. Read these forums, take advantage of searching these archives (the Probability forum may speak directly to your variance question).

Good luck.
JTrout

donkeyradish
06-17-2004, 09:40 AM
Your variance is unique to you, there is no normal value.
Its just a measure of how widely your results fluctuate.

A 'rock' player who only plays strong hands would have low variance and a maniac who bluffs a lot would have very high variance. They could on average be making (or losing) the same amount of money, but the maniac's swings would be dramatically different, sometimes he'd be way ahead and sometimes way behind.

One use for this information is knowing how big your bankroll needs to be to avoid going bust due to these swings (rather than to other factors, such as playing badly)