aggression on the bubble thingee

[stripsqueez]

the 20 or so $100 or $200 SNG's i play each week are a distraction from the fat diet of short handed holdem i play - as such i feel as though i am still stumbling my way around the strategic landscape - despite this newbie status i win comfortably

i have read with interest the view that its right to be aggressive on the bubble - the arguments for are A) everyone else is too timid so its right to take advantage of that timidity, and B) you should be aiming to come first and its worth the risk of extra aggression at this stage to be better placed to come first when the bubble bursts

i have issues with these reasons

as to A) - its true that some of the time when it gets 4 and 5 handed only the shortest stacks seem to want any action - the big stacks appear happy to sit back and cash in the equity they have now rather than take significant risks - but nobody is making a mistake in my view - its right for the big stacks to display some caution - i know its accepted theory that the big stacks should be bullies but isnt it a bit different in a SNG where at this stage someone is commonly all-in before the flop ? - ie the short stacks will simply push against aggro action from a big stack with a decent enough hand

the other bit to A is the suggestion that you are taking advantage of overly timid big/mid sized stacks who are intent on hanging on rather than risking a quick demise - this is clearly right in my view but stated as such your merely saying you should take advantage of your opponents weakness

i open pushed as the SB in a SNG recently, coming second, with 4 left - the BB who was coming first with maybe $800 more than me called with Q10o - i'm not complaining because i'm the goose who didnt judge my opponent well enough to know i probably shouldnt of pushed and as it happens i had a slightly better hand - the point is that there is no argument for aggression on the bubble unless they are too timid and thats not always true

as for B) - i view this as a straight up risk versus benefit proposition - its very often right that people see risk before benefit (just consider all those punters who sit on 16 versus a 7 in blackjack) so the argument appeals to me - but - of the times i get to the last 3 and definately the last 2 i often figure i am a bigger chance to win than my stack would suggest because at least 1 or often both of my opponents are horribly predictable - i would guess that 50% of the time i am heads up in these tournaments my opponent is way too aggressive - i know its a bit of a lottery at this stage but my little stack often feels a lot bigger and more times than it should so far my little stack wins - doesnt that mean first priority is to get there ? - put another way - isnt a big stack a bigger advantage against a decent player ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[PrayingMantis]

Good post. I think that playing very aggressive at specific points, on the bubble, can be fine, but making it into a rule, is very dangarous.

For instance, in my last, say, 100 games, at the $27-$60 levels at stars, I found myself many times on the bubble against 2 completely different types of opposition.

One type, was made by people with medium stacks, who called all-in with hands like 98, AT, 33. I busted a few times after trying to be aggressive and take advantage of people "tightness" on the bubble. It wasn't necessarily a bad read by me - I was surprised to see a player who looked pretty decent (aggressive yet capable of folding), makes an all-in call with KJ.

So, I got some really unbelievable calls: someone limped-called all-in with QTo, for instance.(yeah, Stars *is* getting fishier than ever... /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

The other type was players who play real "weak-tight" on the bubble, and that's where aggression helped me to gain chips for the final stage.

I'd say that about 30-40% of the time, it was much much better to sit tight, and wait for someone else to make the steal-re-raise all-in with T7, only to get called by J8.

All-in-all, this is very player dependent, and without a strong read - it's, no doubt, better not to risk your tourney on a marginal move, on the bubble, if you don't really need to.

[Phill S]

like mantis says, you will encounter so many types of players in the bubble that there is no one strategy. ive read enough posts about the uber aggression to know where they are coming from, and its a great strategy.

but its no more than that, another tool in your arsenal. when four handed stealing blinds is good, but getting to the last 3 should be goal 1. getting there with top stack is goal 2.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
i have read with interest the view that its right to be aggressive on the bubble - the arguments for are A) everyone else is too timid so its right to take advantage of that timidity...i open pushed as the SB in a SNG recently, coming second, with 4 left - the BB who was coming first with maybe $800 more than me called with Q10o

[/ QUOTE ]

A question born of ignorance here: is open pushing against someone with a larger stack considered a standard bet if you are on a BB steal? I would think that you can often do the same thing without exposing your entire stack. Or am I weak-tight?

[Hood]

I think bubble play, or near-bubble play, is what makes all the difference from slightly-profitable Aleo Magus-guide play, and 30%-40% ROI play. This is certainly where I'm consentrating my attention as I try and better my play.

When it gets down to 4-5, you work less from fixed rules and more by 'feel' for the certain hand, the players, the level, how long until the next level, your position. It is also less card-oriontated play.

I, very generally, try to steal what I can get away with. I try and get a feel for when the other players are willing to let me push them around, and when they're pissed off enough to take a stand. If I've already stolen once or twice in an orbit, I'll slow down and let it go.

It comes a lot down to stack sizes. If I'm a middle stack and there's one big stack and two short-ish then often taking shots at the short stacks works well, as they're waiting for the other to drop. If there's one short stack and two big stacks, taking shots at the big stacks I find can often be more effective, as they don't want to get drawn in when they're nearly ITM.

If I'm up against tight players, I'll steal more. If they're lose, I usually just have to accept that I can't build my stack, and wait for either them to take each other out, or to get a premium hand.

One strong play I've found is push all in from the BB when there's been a limp or min-raise. Although they could be doing this with AA-QQ, the majority of the time they showed weekness.

And as a general rule, I *very* rarely call an all-in or decent bet from anyone. Even if I've got a decent hot-and-cold hand, like AJ or TT, which would be sure raisers, I'll fold. Even if the better has stolen the last couple of blinds. I'd rather wait for my turn to steal than to call someone elses.

Mostly basic stuff, hopefully something there is useful /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jason Strasser]

Stripqueez,

I have three hands for you, and I'm wondering how you play them.

Four handed. Blinds 200/400. Dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the SB. You have 4.5k, BB has 3.5k UTG has 2k and Button has less than 1k. UTG who hasnt made a move for a while makes it 1k to go. Button folds. Your move?

Second hand. Same blinds. You are dealt 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB. You have 3k. BB has 2k UTG has less than 1k, and button has 4k. Folded to you, your move?

Third hand. You are dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB. You have 2k after posting. UTG tiny stack folds. Button big stack folds. SB goes in, it will cost you all but 300 of your chips to call. He's been doing this a lot. Your move?

Thanks! (I'll get to strip's post after I see his response to this)

[hop]

Hmm, let me try it.

Hand 1: Fold. I put UTG on a big hand. The fact that he made a 2.5xBB raise againt two big stacks in the blinds and a short stack yet to act, suggests he has a big hand. Besides, if I fold, BB will have 1.6:2.6 odds to re-raise all-in. He may decide to do it with marginal hands like JT.

Hand 2: Push. BB won't risk elimination with marginal hands here. He probably only calls with top 10% hands or so. My EV is clearly positive. Even if I am called and lose the hand, I still have more chips than UTG does, and he needs to post blinds before I do.

Hand 3: Call. AJs is a favorite (about 55:45) against a random "push hand" (pair, Ax, two big cards). If I lose, I still have good chance to outlast UTG.

Y

[Profit]

well, i got my answers, will b interesting to see what i learn from this little "exercise."

[Hood]

My answers mirror hops'... but they seem rather obvious so I'm a thinkin' there's a trick in there somewhere.

[Profit]

same.

[Jason Strasser]

Hmm, strip seems to not check up on his posts here, or I don't know the time difference in Australia (hrmm).

My answers and thoughts:

Hand one: I push. I've already posted a few hands like this, but a 1k raise in this spot doesn't look like a monster to me, it looks cautious. Like maybe AK-AT or 99, or something like that, where the person likes his/her hand, but wants to see a flop before committing the stack. But more importantly, the person bet an amount that he or she can fold if reraised, that way the person can try to outlast the other small stack. The only reason this works is because of the mega short stack and the bubble. Sure I get shown Aces, Kings, and Queens occasionally in this spot, but more often than not someone with aces will push PF, not raise any less. I know I would... This is definitely a +EV play for me, no doubt about it.

Hand 2: Push. Hop's reasoning is the same as mine.

Hand 3: I fold. You are absolutely right that I am a favorite, and you listed the odds (55:45 vs random hand). That is exactly the reason I'm folding. I can take the coinflip and put my entire stack on the line (or most of it), or I can comfortably fold my way into the money. My stack is way too big to call this raise. I think this is a pretty easy fold. On the other hand, if the SB limped in, I'd push this and a lot of other crap... The equity you gain from your opponent folding is way too high.

When I think of aggression on the bubble--this is what I'm thinking about.

Edit: I also think this may explain why I get verbally assaulted sometimes on the bubble. One out of every five or six sngs, I get a short stack go on some incredible rant, either because my 64 won, or because the person had to fold JJ preflop.

[stripsqueez]

hand 1 i fold - UTG will call if i push unless hes an idiot and i figure to start behind

hand 2 i'm tempted to push and will if i think the BB is unlikely to call with random type hands

hand 3 i call - i'd like to know how tiny the other stack is - ie will it survive paying the BB and SB which are the next 2 hands ? - i am likely a favourite and have some chance to have a dominating hand - winning this pot leaves me in big shape for 1st or second finish

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, strip seems to not check up on his posts here, or I don't know the time difference in Australia (hrmm

[/ QUOTE ]

the latter - i didnt read this before posting a response - when you posted your view it was about 6am where i am

i cant agree about hand 1 - what sort of idiot would bet 1,000 of a 2,000 stack when they are 1,000 in front of fourth with 4 left and not call the all-in raise ?? - if you read them for some sort of weakness thats fine but if i do that you can assume there is a very good chance i'm going to be happy to push the rest in

strangely i think pushing with 64o on the second hand whilst dependant on who the BB is - is not such an interesting choice

calling with AJs is interesting - its the possibility of dominating some Ax crap that lures me - if UTG can survive both blinds then maybe i will fold but otherwise i am definately going to shoot for the big money

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Hood]

This is very interesting, thanks for this. My comments:

[ QUOTE ]

Hand one: I push. I've already posted a few hands like this, but a 1k raise in this spot doesn't look like a monster to me, it looks cautious. Like maybe AK-AT or 99, or something like that, where the person likes his/her hand, but wants to see a flop before committing the stack. But more importantly, the person bet an amount that he or she can fold if reraised, that way the person can try to outlast the other small stack. The only reason this works is because of the mega short stack and the bubble. Sure I get shown Aces, Kings, and Queens occasionally in this spot, but more often than not someone with aces will push PF, not raise any less. I know I would... This is definitely a +EV play for me, no doubt about it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting move. It all comes down to the likelyhood that the UTG will fold to the re-raise. Personally I think, in the 10+1s on Party, very rarely would someone fold here.

I think saying "the person bet an amount that he or she can fold if reraised" is giving the UTG too much credit. Most of the time I think this bet is just saying "hmm, Ax, haven't had one of them for a while, that's worth 1k" so they bet 1k. Then they get re-raised all in and they think "hmm, well I'm pot committed now, may as well shove the rest in.". I don't think the thought process is usually much better than that.

The main problem I find with your explanation is "that way the person can try to outlast the other small stack". In the specifics of the question, I think this is wrong. If UTG folds, he's down to 1k in chips. He's now got a T400 to put in, leaving him T600. The button, who has 'less than 1k' is now (probably) not the short stack. UTG is now going to have real difficulty trying to 'outlast' button.

When the UTG gets reraised, he'll think "oh crap, only got 1k left, gotta put in the BB then SB next, I'm gonna go out before the button, this is my best chance of getting ITM" and he'll call. 90% of the time I'd expect a call in my games.

Edit: d'oh - read the last question as 'it will cost you all of 300', not 'all but T300'. Deleting my comment on this post. You're right - folding here's the right move.

/off to check I read the first Q right

[Jason Strasser]

Thanks for the comments.

I do think that the Q3s question is a bit odd. It would be a much better push if the raiser was on the button, and there was a stack smaller than 1k UTG about to get blinded. Your points are good though, the situation was hypothetical, I guess I should've stacked it more in my favor /images/graemlins/grin.gif. Does that change your decision?

I guess my theme with bubble play is to make tentative short stacks play for all their money. Many people are very happy blinding themselves away, waiting for third. Sometimes due to table dynamics, you are forced to fold your way into the money, or to try to outlast a small stack.

However, I've found that is incredibly profitable to make people play for all their chips on the bubble, while also being VERY cautious calling all ins. I fold a hand like AJs to an all in (usually) because I can accumulate chips stealing blinds with less risk.

Aggression can also overcome many mistakes--where a passive player has little room for error. This was mumbo jumbo, but I think there is no reason not to be super aggressive on the bubble.