Odd hand, need opinions

[Jason Strasser]

$100 SNG, I haven't been running that well, so decided to drop down to the $100s for a bit to concentrate on the little aspects of my game. Here is a hand I'm still not sure about.

I get dealt K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the BB. It is the first level of the sng, stack sizes even at 1k. Player in MP makes a suspiciously small raise to 35. Button calls, I call.

Flop J98, 2 spades.

I bet out 80. Raiser in MP doubles it to 160. Button folds, I call.

Turn: offsuit 3.

I check. MP checks.

River: K, no flush possible.

I check. Opponent bets 200, I call.

I don't feel comfortable with how I played this hand. Comments on all streets appreciated.

[Nemesis]

I suck, but i would have bet/called a raise on the end.

[La Brujita]

Hey Jason,

I think your call preflop is good, hard to know what a small raise means against an unknown opponent. I like the bet on the flop, I usually would come out betting about 80-95% of the pot size here. Tough to know what the miniraise means. Not a very good play with pocket aces. Pretty unlikely he flopped a straight isn't it. Not the time to get cute with a set either with the board being what it is. Hard to say. Not sure about your turn check. I think I check as well but is that a good play? I mean you are letting all kinds of drawing hands in cheap but this is something I am struggling with lately, is there a point in betting in this kind of situation when your opponent likely won't fold to a raise, and he may have you drawing slim?

Again a close decision between a bet and a check on the river. Perhaps a check is weak tight but I think you have to ask yourself what you are going to do with a reraise. I probably bet the river but I again don't know if that is right.

None of this was too illuminating I know but it seems a bit of an odd hand.

BTW pity about losing the new point guard for next year.

Edit to say I went down to get some ice cream and think about this hand some more and I think a check call is better on the river than a bet. I guess its not too late to change my mind since nobody else responded. It is just too unclear to me what the opponent has. I am not sure what to do with a reraise so maybe a check call is better. The only problem is a check might give your opponent license to steal and so a small river bet might head that off. I have to credit one of our esteemed posters for teaching me that concept.

[Jason Strasser]

LaBrujita and fellow Blue Devil,

Yes, we aren't looking so good for next year. No Luol, no Livingston... Anyhow to the hand.

I figured my opponent had one of four things:

1) busted draw
2) AK
3) set
4) QT for the straight

QT seemed very unlikely, as the turn check made no sense. Same for the set. However, I still had a very odd feeling about what he could have. And, if he had a busted hand, checking and calling would give me the best shot at catching a bluff. Checking and raising was a close second, but I felt like I'd only get called by a hand that beat me. Betting the river was a distant third choice. I guess I chose the weak tight safe rout.

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
And, if he had a busted hand, checking and calling would give me the best shot at catching a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

The tough thing about this for me is how big of a bluff are you willing to call. I think that is a great play in a limit game or tournament but depending on the level of aggressiveness of your opponent it might be tough. I still think the check is the best play but that is the tricky thing about nl.

[M.B.E.]

Very often a minraise on the flop means a set. On PokerStars, it seems like approximately 75% of the time that someone minraises me on the flop or the turn, and I see their cards, they have a set (or better).

That said, if your opponent did have a set, why would he have checked the turn? His check would make sense if he had QT, of course. However, that seems unlikely. I think it's pretty likely that when you hit the king on the river you have the best hand. There's 425 in the pot, by my count. You each have 800 left.

When you check the river, I don't think you can fold to an all-in bet. Your opponent could easily have KQ (flopped nut gutshot), AK, or TT, all of which you beat. Basically you'd have to call if your chance of winning is greater than 40%, which I think it is. On the other hand, if you bet 200 on the river and get raised all in, that indicates much more strength from your opponent -- to the point where it would be close between calling and folding, in my opinion.

I don't think this is the spot to check hoping to induce a bluff. Based on your opponent's flop minraise, I suspect that if he doesn't have a huge hand then he's got something halfway decent that he would prefer to show down, without risking more chips.

If I had been in your shoes, I think I would have bet 300 or so, and called any raise. Considering the turn was checked, I believe that your opponent will now suspect you might be bluffing, and he will call your river bet with a variety of hands that you beat. (The less risky alternative is to bet 200 and fold to a sizeable raise. But I don't think you should check the river.)

[stripsqueez]

i dont think weak/tight is an adequate description

looks dumb to me to call the flop raise and then not be in a position to do more than check/call the river when you hit

if you have a good read that he has you beat then fold to the flop raise - calling and then meekly playing the turn and river is bad - what would you have done on the turn if he pumped another $300 ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Hood]

This may not be relevant as it's from much lower buyins SNGs, but that play on the flop said to be a flush draw with two overcards - Aks or AQs. I think this matches with his turn play (checking his draw) and river play (bluff stab at the pot. This would seem a good place to make a bluff as you have played the hand weakly (not badly or incorrectly, just weakly).

If that's right, on the turn bet would have been correct. But I like the way you played it.

/I'm out of all your leagues here, but I still hope it's ok to comment!

[Pitcher]

Hi Jason,

I like your read on this hand with the AK/busted draw. I see a some players put in small raises with AK trying to disquise the strength of their hand (I don't much like that play, but that is another matter) I also think the flop play strongly indicates an AK. In limit games a lot of players will raise the flop and check the turn hoping to see all 5 cards for a relatively cheap flop raise. He may be doing something similar with the flop re-raise. I don't think it was that cheap and I question his strategy but it looks likely that is what happended. So, if you have him put on a AK, why not pop him all in on the river? Who knows, you might even get a call from someone with AK, if they think you are weak.

Pitcher

[soxfan70]

I like the PF call, the Flop bet and call of the raise. I also like the check on the turn after he raised your flop bet. Once he checks it again, I would definetly have him on a steal and go for the check-raise on the river card. I dont think its likely that he open raised with Q 10. I think I may have been inclined to go with a larger raise though. Although I understand your thinking that you want the call, and he may not call something larger. All-in-all, I think you played it well. Have to go look for results now!

[Jason Strasser]

Hey everyone, thanks for your comments. I'll respond to them in a second.

My opponent here had 76 of spades for seven high.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
When you check the river, I don't think you can fold to an all-in bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. I don't think there was a chance I could fold. Which means I should've bet into him... right? I was just really certain my hand was good, and I'd get more out of him checking and calling. I should've check raised him I think looking back at the hand. Nothing he could check with on the turn makes any sense. I don't think a reasonable player would consider doing that even with QT. I wouldn't.

I see the argument for value betting the river, and I think normally that would be my play. I just was thinking that I'd gain extra equity from calling a missed draw, or AK, then I would from betting out and getting a fold. Most of the hands I had my opponent on were second best. Of course, if he checked behind with AK, I'd shoot myself! So I do see the merit to betting the river.

I think next river I'll bet out, because most of the time you are right M.B.E, an opponent just wants to get to showdown in this spot.

I got fortunate this hand to win an extra river bet, I think in the long run I should bet the river, or check raise. Check calling didn't feel right.

[Jason Strasser]

Good point stripsqueez,

I'd probably fold on the turn if he made a big bet. I was purely drawing at that point. In fact, if he made a real raise on the flop, I'd probably fold. There were too many draws out there that screwed me, and so many hands that were ahead of me.

However, he min raised me. I guess I could've folded, but I was getting great odds to call, combined with the small chance he was drawing with a ten, or to the flush. That was my line of thinking, but I see your point. I fold to a real bet on the flop or turn.

[Jason Strasser]

Hood,

Lower SNGs play differently, but the principals are really all the same. This hand could've happened in a 10 dollar sngs.

[ QUOTE ]
If that's right, on the turn bet would have been correct

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think I could've led out on the turn in this hand, I was not very happy with my hand at this point, and was preparing to let it go for a significant bet.

Thanks for the post, you never have to put a disclaimer like: "I'm out of all your leagues here, but I still hope it's ok to comment!" ever...

[Jason Strasser]

Pitcher,

You're right, I should've checkraised all in. I think I would've felt better if I did. I mentioned my thinking previously.

[Beavis68]

I dont think the check-call is bad, you aren't getting any more chips out of him. If the guy would do this with 7-6 why not Q-10? The only thing my might call with that you could beat would be AA or maybe AK. Therefore, I think that a check-raise all-in on the river has -EV.

[fnurt]

He played this like a limit hand and so should you in my opinion. Check-call the river.