Question re: Poker Essays III

In Malmuth's Poker Essays III, in "A Note on Steaming" he gives an example of a large multiway pot where you are early with Q-J. The flop is J-7-2 and you bet and get 5 calls. The turn is a rag and you bet again and get four callers. You lose to a ragged 2 little pair on the river. Malmuth says that you didn't play your hand right! He says the size of the pot naturally draws callers and you knew this and anyone with a small pair was correct to call. Thus you used inaccurate strategy.


This is exactly how I play the hand every time. Its a ragged rainbow board, and even if people are correct to call with small pairs, aren't I making money here if say one caller has a 7, one has a 2, one has a gutshot, and the real live one has one overcard. That's 17 outs between them and you have the rest of the deck. What's the better way to play this hand? What am I missing here? It doesn't seem like this situation is comparable to the S&M check-the-flop-and-blow-everyone-away-on-the-turn strategy to prevent a river draw out because you don't have position and can't expect a bet from directly behind you. Any thoughts?


Joeflex


Joeflex

First of all, I would be wondering how I got into a large multiway pot from early position with QJ. But I guess the topic of the essay was that I was steaming, so okay. /images/wink.gif


I think you should check the flop to get an idea where a bet on the turn might come from. It might come from a spot where you won't be able to move anyone on the turn, but if it does come from a good spot you significantly increase the money you expect to make if you can blow even 2 players out by raising on the turn. And why does it matter if you make the bet or someone else does? The same money goes in either way. If no one bets, the free card is not a disaster if no one with any outs would have folded for your bet anyway (and no one with even 2 outs should fold if the pot started with 20+ bets preflop).


You might be making a little money from their calls, but the point is that you make a lot more when they fold. If there's already 12 big bets in the pot on the flop, you would rather win 4 more big bets playing against a smaller field with 10 outs than win 8 more bets playing against a larger field with 17 outs. Against the large field with 17 outs, you have a 40% chance to win a 20BB pot, for an expected gain of 8 BB. Against the smaller field with 10 outs, you have a 62% chance to win a 16BB pot, for an expected gain of 10BB. What has happened is that the pot has gotten so big that it's more important to protect your chances of winning what's already there than to win more money on future betting rounds.


So the answer is, even if you are making money when they call, you make a lot more money if you can get just a couple of them to fold. Because the pot is so big, those 5 callers should chase you to the end with only one good overcard (a 3 outer) if they only have to pay one bet each round, and are costing you money when they do. If enough of them call (the "schooling" effect), they will probably even have correct odds to call the turn with only 3 outs and try to hit again on the river. And don't forget about the effect backdoor draws have on your chances to win. If you think there isn't significant backdoor potential in 10-12 cards, just try playing Omaha some time. /images/wink.gif

the play is to checkraise to try to knock people out since the pot size will draw callers. This play should be routine in large pots with top pair.


pat

In the example, four others play to the river. I would say you are safe from a 3,4,possibly 5 and Q beating you. This leaves A,K,T,9,8,7,6,2 in combination with the made part of any of these players' hands. I am not going to do the math, but I will guess you are a big underdog against the field. Heads up, you are a favorite if you haven't been raised, but in combination with 4 other hands, look out, you will lose a large portion of these hands.

I think you have the hypothetical wrong. You're assuming that the pot is big already and doing that blow-them-out-on-the-turn S&M thing. But its not big. You say in your hypo that there are 20 bets preflop but the pot is much smaller. I think Malmuth thinks the pot only gets bigger once there are all these preflop callers and he consequently doesn't like the bet on the turn. And if the pot somehow were as big as you say then you'd probably just be protecting someone else's hand, who made the pot that big preflop.


So the real issue is what would you do if there were say, 6 limpers preflop so only 6 small bets and you have Q-J on a J-7-2-flop.

You're right about me assuming the pot was big to start with. I haven't read Essays 3 yet, so was not familiar with the context. If it's 6 bets and 5 opponents preflop, I would probably check the flop and hope to raise a late position bet right away, rather than wait until the turn to get the raise in like I would in a bigger pot. Probably about the same amount of money goes in whether you check raise or bet the flop (say, 2-4 opponents for 1 bet vs. 1-3 opponents for 2 bets), and you greatly increase your chances of winning a showdown by knocking out a few players if you currently have the best hand. You are risking a free card, but your equity in the smallish 6 bet pot and any future bets is probably something like 35-40% if you have to play 4-5 opponents to the river, whereas it's more like 55-60% if you can arrange to play only 2-3 opponents. Playing against fewer opponents in these situations also has the benefit of lowering your fluctuations, since you will more often win the pot.