WCOOP LHE double-shootout -- tourney theory question

[M.B.E.]

The final table of this double-shootout, there are two winners who each get a $215 seat. Everyone else at the final table gets back their $15 entry fee.

Now we are down to three players: I am in first with 4240, the guy on my right is close behind with 4205, and the guy on my left has only 555. So if he busts out, the tourney is over.

By the way, this is limit holdem. The stakes are currently 150/300.

I limp on the button (150) with pocket sevens. SB (short stack) completes. BB checks.

Flop is J-6-4 rainbow. SB checks, BB bets, I call, and now the SB checkraises to 300. This leaves him with only 105 chips. Now the BB threebets. By the way, I should mention that the BB is a terrible player, a LAG-bordering-on-maniac. He typically will bet or raise with any pair, any decent draw, and sometimes overcards. Maybe he forgot that there are two winners of this tournament (so it doesn't help him to push me out).

So, it's 300 for me to call. Of course SB will call his last chips, and from the way he played the hand, it seems he has my sevens beat. The BB, it appears, is going to bet the turn and the river regardless of whether he can beat pocket sevens.

I folded here, but a friend watching me play suggested I should have called, because the only outcome that would be terrible for me is if the SB wins the hand and the BB also beats me. Anything other than that and either the tournament ends (with me as winner) or it continues (with me as chip leader).

What are your thoughts?

[M.B.E.]

Here are the possible outcomes:

If I fold and the short stack wins, I will have 3940, the other players 3650 and 1410.

If I call and the short stack wins and I am second, I will have 4330, the other players 3005 and 1665.

If I call and the short stack wins and BB is second, I will have 3040, the other players 4295 and 1665.

Any other outcome, the tournament ends with me as winner.

[Jason Strasser]

Two things, one unrelated. Why didn't you raise preflop? I dont play limit sngs, but isnt this an easy raise?

Secondly, I think this is a case where I think check calling down the maniac is the right play. If he is capable of doing this with a 6 a portion of the time (or overcards/draw), this is the right thing to do. You are probably behind the SB, but you don't have to worry about adding more fuel to the small stack by getting involved, since a good portion of the action will be in the side pot.

Tough spot, I don't think folding is that bad of a play either.

[Tosh]

The priority is obviously getting the SB out, if you call, the BB surely checks it down unless he is a total moron. There is noway either of you should even bet the nuts till the river. Of course if the SB holds the winner here you throwing him extra chips with just 77 is a disaster.

Tough decision, I actually think I fold though. My 7s look dead and they're not getting much better.

[Prickly Pete]

I think you call here. You're only donating 255 more to the short stack if he's got you. And he may just be making a play, checkraising the maniac BB player and hoping to fold you and/or him. Would he checkraise with a 6 or worse hand? I think it's a possibility.

Plus there's still the small chance of catching your 7. Finally, there's no guarantee that the maniac is ahead of you anyway and you may win the sidepot even if SB wins the main pot.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
You're only donating 255 more to the short stack if he's got you. And he may just be making a play, checkraising the maniac BB player and hoping to fold you and/or him. Would he checkraise with a 6 or worse hand? I think it's a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he only had a 6, he'd be more likely to bet, expecting the maniac BB to raise with a wide range of hands, knocking me out. The SB's checkraise play suggests that he wants my chips in the pot.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you raise preflop? I dont play limit sngs, but isnt this an easy raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I wanted the short stack in the hand, since with 77 I figured to have a better hand than him. If I raised, he might just say screw it and wait for the next hand when he'd have the button. When I'm dealt 77 at the start of this hand, my goal is to get the short stack all-in, preferably with threeway action. Limping would be more likely to achieve that than raising.

Also, if I had raised preflop, the maniac in the BB would probably have threebet me (whether or not the short stack called my raise).

[La Brujita]

I think this is an interesting thread. My only thought to add is you will improve to a set about 9% of the time. This is not an inconsequential number in my opinion.

Also important is the extent to which the loose player is willing to raise with nothing. This is something that is hard to quantify in this thread but rather is read dependent. To the extent you can leverage the 9% by a probability that your sevens are already good I think this should be called down.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
The priority is obviously getting the SB out, if you call, the BB surely checks it down unless he is a total moron.

[/ QUOTE ]
That was precisely my problem.

[M.B.E.]

I folded and, wouldn't you know it, a 7 fell on the turn. River was a 4 (pairing the board). The SB won the pot with J3o and the BB raised me out holding 65o (middle pair).

In hindsight I think I should have called, and that isn't merely results-oriented. The probability that I had at least one of my opponents already beat, plus the small-but-not-insignificant chance of my catching a set, was at least equal to the probability of the worst-case-scenario (SB winning, BB second, me third). Furthermore, the worst-case-scenario really was not too bad (I would still have almost twice as many chips as the guy in third place) while the best-case-scenario (the SB being eliminated) would have won me the whole tourney.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded and, wouldn't you know it, a 7 fell on the turn. River was a 4 (pairing the board). The SB won the pot with J3o and the BB raised me out holding 65o (middle pair).



[/ QUOTE ]

That is so retarded. I would probably lose it with that guy if it ended up costing me the seat and probably even it didn't.