My $900 Free Card

I was thrilled to win this pot and I probably made the max the way I played it, only I think that I may have risked a terrible mistake, results aside.


20-40: lot of limpers, aggressive play


Two or three limpers in front of me, I limp in middle position with 33, another limper, a raise by a good player, reraise buy a wild player in sb, seven players so I call two more bets. Seven players for three bets.


Flop: A 7 7, obviously I have almost no interest in this flop, 'cept for one thing, IT CHECKS AROUND!!


Turn: 3!! checks to second limper(L2) who bets, I call(!!??), folded to original three-bettor who calls, check-raised by first limper(L1), L2 calls, now I finally wake-up and raise figuing its time to get the original 3-bettor off his likely pocket pair, he mucks, L1 and L2 call.


River: blank checks to me, I bet, L1 calls, L2 mucks his KK(no he never raised preflop). L1 disgustedly shows 7-8clubs(yes she checked the flop and the turn). Yippee!!


I know I got incredibly lucky to win this hand. If the KK had raised in the first place I never would have been in (this guy is so weak he won't even raise w/ AA) and if he had capped preflop, I might not have called; obviously from the action, none of seven players for three bets preflop had and ace(first pfr had TT, second had QQ).


What I want to know is how dangerous was it that I only called the first bet on the turn, I suppose its easier to see, given a look at all the hands--I get beat by an A, K, Q, T(if he stayed for one bet), 8, or 7. By calling, without knowing that its going to be checkraised, I'm letting any of up to 13 outs have a shot at redrawing.... doesn't look so good. I did consider the possibility that the original raisers could have AA and that there might have been fireworks behind me and that maybe I would get some idea before I showed my strength. Like I said, I think my call may have been pretty bad, but winning the pot soothed any personal embarrassment that I might feel. This was not the case with my next post(please see above, I really messed this one up). All comments apprieciated, thanks.


Mike

I'd consider my 3s full an under-full... and I almost NEVER slow-play an under full, especially in such a multi-way pot! JMHO-

Yeah, you should raise the turn straight away. My first instinct with the bet to my immediate right would be to smooth call and get alot of wasted bets to call as you did. But would opt for the better play and just raise it. If someone picked up a flush draw on the turn they will probably call anyway because of all the preflop action. So you will not lose draws that are drawing dead anyway. The people you will lose are the ones that aren't drawing dead, the bigger pocket pairs. And thats what you want.

pokerguy,


Thanks, Kevin too. The problem with my initial call on the turn occurred to me after the hand(maybe during since I did finally raise after the check-raise), that's why I posted, to make sure. Yes, I realize the fragility of the underfull(though it seems that I did temporarily forget, and neglected to consider how many hands could have been drawing live) and was lucky not to be outdrawn.


Mike

Seven players for three bets.


Flop: A 7 7, obviously I have almost no interest in this flop,


id say you could maybe peel one off here even if its bet at 22:1

Certainly if his call closed the betting I'd agree. But with this much pre-flop action, isn't there an all too probable chance it can get raised and/or check/raised,/re-raised, etc.?


Of course, the fact that it wound up being checked around might make this notion seem a little silly /images/smile.gif

nf,


I said, "almost" because of course, I would have probably had odds to take a card off for one bet but, if the bet comes in front of me I can't be sure that it won't be one or two more bets back to me in which case I don't have the right odds to stay in; all this plus the possibilty that I could have been drawing dead left me with a pretty large lack of interest in this flop.


Mike

"Flop: A 7 7, obviously I have almost no interest in this flop, 'cept for one thing, IT CHECKS AROUND!!"


Even if there were a bet, you should have some interest. There was aready $420 in the pot, so you're already getting 21:1. Assuming no one else has a 3, which is a good assumption, your odds of catching a 3 are 17.5:1. Plus if you spike one, you're going to win a monster pot.


Raise right away on the turn. The pot is already big, why let someone in for one bet who can catch a mircale card (as you just did) to beat you?


Would anybody else have folded for two more bets pre-flop? (I would have.)


Nice pot! Isn't it a great feeling when that 3 hits the board?

Preflop, I think you should dump your baby pocket pair once it gets raised and reraised back to you. Of course, you call a single raise having already limped in but not a double pop. It could even get four bet and capped. Paying three or more bets upfront damages your implied odds for these hands.


What happened on the flop it so typical in games where players fail to bet their hands and allow a free card to be handed out to a table full of opponents. All kinds of terrible things frequently happen. Just because someone may be getting the right pot odds to play a two outer doesn't mean they will call. Players make mistakes. Give them a chance to do so by betting. Someone made a horrible mistake by allowing it to get checked around here. Like I keep telling you guys - BET YOUR HAND!


It is critical to raise with your underfull on fourth when bet into. The pot is large and you must make all overpairs to your pocket pair as well as someone with aces pay through the nose to chase by confronting them all with a big double bet.

Andy,


How did you come up with 17.5:1 to hit a 3. Its like a little more than 23:1 to hit a 2 outer on the turn. Just wondering?


I agree with Mike that if the bet is in front of me on the flop with alot of players yet to act behind I would not call the flop as well. It might get raised and reraised behind you. Your in a bad spot for this call.

Thanks for responding with what I was gonna say; been on the phone.

Hi Jim,


Thanks for the response. Four bets is a cap in Chicago. As I said in my original post, I might not have called if the KK capped and it was three bets back to me, but since it was only two and the pot was virtually garaunteed to have seven players as the limper behind me was certain to call, I figured that I had the correct odds to call and try to flop a set, is this a flawed thought? I agree that I should have immediately raised the turn.


Thanks again,


Mike

With seven way action, you probably can't go too wrong playing any pocket pair, even when it does get capped.

Kevin,


Yeah, that's what I thought. So how come Jim and Andy don't like a small pair for even multiple bets, when you KNOW that there's gonna be six other players? Certainly the implied odds are there, and as I mentioned, even though many players were seeing the flop, many of them played very agressively after the flop--even better when flopping a set.


Mike

Sometimes odds are not the only factor.


In a 7 way 1 bet limp around the table then, for sure, it's a solid play. But when it gets capped or even 3 bet around a table and you have 6 others in with you there's a very good chance there are other pocket pairs out there. You don't want to fight this kind of battle with 33, do you?

Sammy,


Good point, and there were atleast three bigger pocket pairs.


Mike

"Just because someone may be getting the right pot odds to play a two outer doesn't mean they will call."


okay well this is a really good point to use when arguing against that hpfap play we see come up pretty often where you check the likely best hand (AA usually) in late position with a large pot against a large field "because everyone will call anyways with all their gutshots and draws". (the idea is you want to wait and then raise the turn to knock them out). the case is actually that some players (both tight and loose) will make a mistake here and throw away a draw they are getting correct implied odds to continue with, specifically gutshots and pocket pairs.


im not advocating one method over the other (betting vs checking), but this is one instance where playing intuitively (BET the best hand!) may sometimes have the desired effect of getting your opponents to make errors that cost them the pot (or pot equity at least). this is a play that is reserved for loose games generally, but oftentimes when players are loose they are also quite bad at the game and will make costly folds sometimes as well as dumb calls.


btw i realise this doesnt precisely relate to the hand above.

7 players = 14 cards, plus the 3 on the flop make 17, leaving 35 cards with 2 3's remaining (assuming no one else has a 3). So the odds are 33:2 or 16.5:1 (not 17.5:1).


You're right about him being in a bad spot to call, although the presence of the 2 7s might inhabit an Ace from raising. But this is why I would have folded pre-flop when it was two more bets back to me.

I think you are safer counting his probability of spiking the 3 by not assuming the other opponents don't have a 3. Deciding how "live" your outs are without any kind of read should be left to stud, where you actually see the upcards rather than guess them. In hold'em, who knows when someone will decide to see the flop with something like 34s? Remember, none of these guys called 3 cold, and when they called 2 cold they could already expect a 7 way pot.

Andy,


I agree with pokerguy on the odds to spike a 3. On the flop I can only account for five cards, my own and the three on the flop, this leaves 47 unknown cards. I cannot assume that none of the other players has a 3 or even that both threes are out(though it is less likely given the preflop action) or that one or both remaining 3's haven't been mucked preflop. Therefore, when considering taking off a card, I must proceed on the known cards out and those remaining; which means that two of the 47 unknown remaing cards are 3's, whether they are still in the deck or not....making my odds of hitting 2 out of 47, 1 out of 23.5, or 22.5 to 1. And so my pot(or implied) odds needed to be a such and then of course I must consider when facing a bet whether or not I may face any raises reducing my pot(or implied) odds to an unacceptable level.


Mike

"making my odds of hitting 2 out of 47"


right.


andy, this may be presumptuous (maybe you were just making a joke?) but miscalculating odds so dramatically would be a serious leak in anyone's game.


that said, a much worse flop call (much smaller pot, flop strength shown by two opponents) with pocket Qs by someone by the name of cissy bottoms was vehemently defended by nearly all the regulars here a couple months ago.


fwiw, i would always always always muck 33 when it's two bets back to me cold preflop. the chance of getting caught in set over set are especially too high against 7 players. even though i play in loose games, they are usually semi-aggressive preflop, so i rarely find the need to invest even one sb on 22-55.

I find this path in the conversation fascinating because it points out the powerful differences in geography. At least, I assume that's what's going on here.


From my experience in California (and a huge percentage of it is in California), costly -EV calls are frequent. I believe that -EV folds are *extremely* rare, simply based on the hands that I see being called. Of course, since I don't see the hand being folded, I can't say for sure. But the times I've been *aware* of a -EV fold (the player's cards flashed, or whatever) have been so far between as to be almost individually memorable.


Regards, Lee