risk of going broke - some estimates (listen up Desdia72)

[eastbay]

In a recent thread there was some "opinion" (ehem) about the luck factor in not getting broke when playing with 4xbuy-in in the $215 games.

Let's make some reasonable estimates about win percentages for each placing and see what the risk of going broke is for each.

First, let's take an imaginary incredible player who is getting 16,15,14% 1st, 2nd, and 3rd places respectively in the $215s for an astoundingly profitable 42% ROI. While I have heard of this for $55 and below, I have never heard of anything near this high in the $215s.

In this case, a player who starts with $800 will go broke about 25% of the time.

With a still excellent but more realistic split of 14,13,12, with an ROI of 24%, a player with $800 will go broke about 48% of the time.

With numbers probably even more typical of 12,12,12, for an ROI of 12%, this player will go broke about 68% of the time starting from $800.

For this last player, he needs about 30 buy-ins, or about $6500, to get his risk of going broke under 5%.

How's that for a bunch of "probablies" and "maybes." /images/graemlins/smile.gif

How did I figure it? I ran 500,000 trial simulations for each case.

As an aside, the flatness of the probability distribution after, say, 300 games for the current bankroll is kind of startling and disturbing. With these kinds of numbers, you can end up many thousands of dollars apart in either direction from your average ROI. This is a calculation any SnGer should do, IMO, just to grapple with the reality of the gamble we are taking in these things.

eastbay

[Hood]

Thanks for the info, very informative.

I learnt this the hard way just yesterday. After starting off on ladbrokes, having played around 200 SNGs, with a not-great-but-steady 15-20% ROI, ~40% ITM, I thought I'd buy in to Party.

Deposited 110. Played 10 SNGs, was out of the money every single one. With 4 4ths, 4 5ths. My worst ever streak (I think previous to this, I had a streak of 5-6 out of the money).

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
In a recent thread there was some "opinion" (ehem) about the luck factor in not getting broke when playing with 4xbuy-in in the $215 games.

Let's make some reasonable estimates about win percentages for each placing and see what the risk of going broke is for each.

First, let's take an imaginary incredible player who is getting 16,15,14% 1st, 2nd, and 3rd places respectively in the $215s for an astoundingly profitable 42% ROI. While I have heard of this for $55 and below, I have never heard of anything near this high in the $215s.

In this case, a player who starts with $800 will go broke about 25% of the time.

With a still excellent but more realistic split of 14,13,12, with an ROI of 24%, a player with $800 will go broke about 48% of the time.

With numbers probably even more typical of 12,12,12, for an ROI of 12%, this player will go broke about 68% of the time starting from $800.

For this last player, he needs about 30 buy-ins, or about $6500, to get his risk of going broke under 5%.

How's that for a bunch of "probablies" and "maybes." /images/graemlins/smile.gif

How did I figure it? I ran 500,000 trial simulations for each case.

As an aside, the flatness of the probability distribution after, say, 300 games for the current bankroll is kind of startling and disturbing. With these kinds of numbers, you can end up many thousands of dollars apart in either direction from your average ROI. This is a calculation any SnGer should do, IMO, just to grapple with the reality of the gamble we are taking in these things.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

this is an informative post, eastbay. i was only fascinated by Daliman's experiences and wanted to know more. me personally, i would'nt try this. i've tried two $20 SNGs before and came in 2nd on both and i've also won two $10 SNGs with a small sprinkle of cashes in others but i never looked at that as a sign that i should move. i've went broke about three times playing $5 ones in the first couple of months, but as of late, i have been playing off my last re-up for about the last 4 months. i attribute that to my natural progression as a player to understanding and playing the game better.