15-30 Hand

Howdy all,


I am a constant lurker here, but I am trying to come out of my shell. Here is a hand I played last night in my local card room. It is I am sure a pretty esay and basic hand for you guys, But I am interested in your comments on how I played it.


Thanks in advance for your comments.


The game is 15-30 holdem. it is a loose passive game with a lot of post flop checks, and a lot of button bets to take down an uncontested pot.

I am in the BB with A-3o. an early position limper..very loose player. Any two face cards or suited cards and he's there. Everyone folds to the button who calls. He is also a loose player, loves to bet the button no matter what.

Small blind folds...I check. The flop comes 9-8-9 rainbow. I check with full intention of folding to a bet (betting out crossed my mind also.) EP checks and Button bets..of course.

what is the play here? Fold? I raised. I knew the button had nothing. And figured EP would muck for 2 bets. (Is that worth a try?)

Anyway..EP calls, and the button folds. Turn brings 10c to complete the rainbow..so what now...check fold...bet? I bet the turn, he calls.


What now? Game over move on? Check and fold? River brings a duece. Anyway I check and fold, he shows me 10-7 suited. for a open ender, and top pair.


I am sure this is a very easy one for you guys, but would appreciate your comments just the same.

Small pot, fold and give it to the button. Don't need to be fancy in a game like this. Wait for the button if you want to play position games.

Not a bad play, but once the EP calls 2 cold, it is time to go into check mode. He either has a made hand, or has a draw big enough that he will call the turn anyway. Right move, wrong time.

Backlash, I am concerned about your thought process here. You seem to recognize that ace-little offsuit is a piece of junk and the only reason you took a flop was because you got a free play in your big blind. Now if you decide you want to make a play for the pot, I think you should go ahead and lead at the flop for one small bet hoping your two opponents will fold. But once you check the flop, why would you now decide to invest a double-bet with a check-raise in a small, unraised pot like this?


You have only two reasonable options once the flop comes. Either bet the flop or check-fold the flop when someone else bets. Investing multiple bets out-of-position having no hand seems wasteful to me. While your line of play gave you the best chance of winning the pot, it was not worth the added cost in my opinion. Save these kinds of moves when you have good position at least and there is a decent-sized pot at stake.

The flop checkraise is an acceptable play if used sparingly but once you have a coldcaller, I think you have to give up on the bluff.


Betting out as a bluff/semibluff as Jim suggests is also a good alternative. You need to gauge how your opponents view you. They may simply not believe that you would bet a 9 on the flop and may decide to outplay you on the turn.


Most of the time, on this kind of co-ordinated flop with medium cards, you simply will have to checkfold.

THE BOOK SEZ:


PL/$5&$10 ante/ $200 buy-in. Most players average stack $2500. Three seats open on my left. New player arrives...485 lbs., sits next to me. I ask, jokingly..."why are you sitting next to me"? "Well,the book says you sit on the left side of the worst player," fat man (FM) answers. Two hours later, I'm up $1500 and FM's up about a grand. Since his arrival, each time that I raised the pot, pre-flop $45, FM makes it $135 to go and everyone, including myself, would fold. On the 11th raise, I had KK when FM made it $135. When I made it $435 to go, FM wants to make a deal: "I'll show you what I have if you show me what you have", he suggests. I decline. He then states that he has pocket AA's. At this point I request that the house require FM to adhere to the 2-minute warning rule, i.e., if FM doesn't act within the time frame he forfeits the pot. FM calls the bet. The flop K98r comes and I bet $1200 and FM calls. Turn 6 and I bet $2000 and FM calls. River 4 and I'm all in with $700 bet and FM calls. I win and FM flips over AA! Question: FM explained why he played his hand in this manner but what's your guess????????

Dear Backlash,

I agree with Jim and Skip. And have just a couple of thoughts to elaborate. When I evaluate a flop I like to use the red flag system to help determine my action. First your flop comes out with a pair, red flag no. one.As you know a lot of players ,at middle limits, will check a set on the flop when their set has a pair on the board (a mistake often, especially when they are against a possible drawing hand ,and yet quite a few times ,if not the majority of times players will check their set on the flop, and then bet or raise with it on the turn, in middle limit games. Second the flop is coordinated. Red flag no. two. Since it's coordination there is an increased probability that you are against either two pair or a straight draw. Next the flop is at the bottom end of the big cards. Red flag no. 3. Since holdem is a big card game, many players will play any two big cards, so there is the possibility of an open ended straight with a 10 jack, or one or two big inside straight draws is present against you. (ie Queen jack or Queen 10) And while the pot odds are not there for a player to call a bet for an inside straight, at middle limits you see this happening all the time. (Red flag no 3) Next you are out of position. You hold the most common trap hand in holdem (the Ace baby card) And when you do catch your Ace on the turn, you often end up loosing the hand to an bigger Ace with a larger kicker, the only kicker you could beat is a duck. And a lot of middle limit players will call with an Ace almost anything and call to the turn (another mistake but a reality of the game) Red flags 4 and 5. Finally what do you have invested in the pot. Answer: nothing. Remember blind money doesn't even count as a bet and belongs to the pot even before the hand is played. So in summery you are out of position against 5 red flags, with a dog hand that "won't hunt". So in my opinion the better part of valor says to check fold, and wait for a better hand to go to war with.

Your other choice, which I feel would have been a mistake, was to come out betting on the strength of your Ace, but you didn't do that.You made what I am afraid was a weaker move raising back into a bet multiway pot.And you did it when there was a fair chance that you were against a set, two pair, a made full house,a bigger Ace,and or multiple draws. Unfortunately my intuition is not always right, so I am forced to use mathematical probabilities. And the probabilities all say drop. If at this stage you are starting to think that you might have played the hand in a less than ideal way, then welcome to the club. After each session when I do my post game analysis there is almost always a hand or two that I feel I could have played better. Sometimes there is one I know I could have played much better. That's one of the things that makes our game so enjoyable is that we are all constantly learning. Thank you for sharing this question with the forum


"Good luck favors the prepared mind" Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

Jim,


Given the description of the button (he will bet almost 100% of the time checked to on the flop), I think the check raise is not at all a bad play. With 4.6 bets in the pot, his check raise needs to win the pot only 30% of the time to break even. And don't forget there is a very good chance that his ace high is the best hand at this point (only two opponents, and only 2 ranks for them to match on board), so he is quite often protecting a vulnerable best hand with this play. The fact that the pot is small actually helps him, since the limper should be less likely to call with a draw getting only 3.3:1 pot odds. I think check folding your A high to a button who automatically bets in this spot is bad shorthanded play. Betting out is an option, but why not take the free bet from the button and protect your hand at the same time?


He is in a tough spot after being called on the flop. The T is maybe the worst possible turn card since it helped most of the hands limper could call with on the flop that Backlash was beating, by either making limper a pair (JT QT T7) or a straight (QJ 67). A bet is marginal, but there are 4.3 bets in the pot, and the combined chances that Backlash still holds the best hand (maybe limper made a bad flop call with 2 face cards) and that limper folds a weak best hand (an 86 85 or small pocket pair) might exceed the 20% required to make a bet profitable. One thing a bet has going for it is that Backlash should be very unlikely to get raised by a worse hand, so it's an easy fold if raised.


On the river, it's over. If limper hung in there with something like face cards and wants to bet it now, more power to him. It doesn't seem likely enough to make a crying call profitable.

Maybe you are right but there are some other considerations. The button along with an early player voluntarily entered the pot preflop from a field of ten players. This means they have something, the early player at least. I don't consider this to be analogous to a shorthanded situation. There is a big difference between facing two opponents from a starting population of ten than facing two opponents from a starting population of only three. Furthermore, the presence of a third player who limped in from early position reduces your overall chances of having the best hand. An unpaired hand gets help from the flop about a third of the time. With two unpaired hands, it becomes likely that at least one of them gets help from most flops although that may not be true of this particular flop. The small pot may or may not deter some players from pursuing a draw. Most of them don't think statistically. A lot of them figure they can collect extra money when they hit (implied odds) so they will call anyway. But the small pot should impact our thinking. The smaller the pot, the less willing we should be to getting over-involved having no pair and no draw. To me the check-raise is a step toward getting overly committed with no hand and lousy position.


As with many mistakes in holdem, the real mistake was getting involved in the first place.

Thank you for your insights...

"The small pot may or may not deter some players from pursuing a draw. Most of them don't think statistically."


right. im with jim on this one. the flop checkraise with ace high here is a case of making a relatively sophisticated play against unsophisticated players: one who will always bet the flop when it's checked to him and another who will limp with T7 and then play a decently flopped draw very passively.


if you know your opponents at all, as it seems hero did, then you should just fold the flop and wait until you have an actual hand. no point in getting all tricky and advanced against weak players who dontcant analyse mid-hand.

Thanks everyone for the great advice! A big Thank you to Jim, I greatly appreciate your thoughts, and insight.

Given your hole cards (which don't match the flop), there are 47C2=1081 starting hands for your opponents. With a 3 rank flop, there are 38C2=703 hands for your opponents which don't pair, for a 35% chance of each opponent flopping a pair. With a 2 rank flop, there are 42C2=861 hands for your opponents which don't match a card on the flop, for a 20% chance of each opponent flopping trips or 2 pair. We're ignoring pocket pairs here, but that shouldn't be a big deal here since it seems unlikely anyone held a decent pair preflop given the action so far.


So, the chance both opponents miss on a 3 rank flop is 0.65*0.65=0.423 (42%), and the chance both opponents miss on a 2 rank flop is 0.8*0.8=0.64 (64%). If you want to say the EP player is playing better hands (although it seems not to be true in this case /images/wink.gif), your chances of him missing the flop get better. Even if he is winning with a better ace high (which may not be too likely with him checking the flop, depending on the player), it's fairly tough for him to call your check raise. I think you are being overly paranoid to fear losing already on the flop after nothing has happened (it checked to the button, who put in his customary automatic bet). You have to be leaving some money on the table with your worst chance of having the best hand so far (given the action) being better than 50% and 4.6 bets in the pot.


If someone pursues a draw in this small pot, that is to your advantage. They just donated most of those 2 bets to you, and you probably win the 8.6 small bet with a bet on well over half the possible turn cards (Q-T & 7-6 are the worst cards for you). Of course you prefer that they all fold, but you shouldn't be unhappy to play against opponents who will make calls this bad either.


I do agree that you should get out of small pots when you don't have much. But I don't agree that this is necessarily such a situation.

i think a fold after the flop was best however if you really want to contest this pot which i would not you could call the the flop and go for a check raise on the turn with ace over card if reraised hes got anine this of course is very expensive if it fails which it would have here because the 10 on turn helped him muck it pre flop move on

There are a lot of pocket pair hands that would not have raised preflop. 22 (6ways), 33(3 ways), 44(6 ways), 55(6 ways), 66( 6 ways), 77 (6 ways), (88 3 ways), and 99( 1 way). These are 37 hands which could be held by either opponent.


In addition, if someone holds a hand like jack-ten (16 hands) or seven-six (16 hands) or ten-seven (16 hands) they are a mathematical favorite to make a straight or a hand that beats ace-high by the river and they will be going to the river with these holdings. This is another 48 hands that could he held by either opponent.


There are also hands like ten-eight (12 hands) and eight-seven (12 hands) which may might decide to play having middle pair with other pairing possibilities. This is another 24 hands.


These total another 109 hands.


The other thing that needs to be considered is how a hand gets played. Suppose you check-raise, get called, and blank comes on the turn? If you don't bet, then you may get bet out of the hand even if your ace-high happens to be best. How could you call a turn bet with no pair and no draw at that point? Your poor position cripples you. Your hand may be best but you will not be able to always recognize it as such and play it that way. Here is an example. The early limper has jack-ten suited with the board of nine-nine-eight. He limped in early preflop. He checks his straight-draw on the flop after you check. The button bets and you raise. He calls, pursuing his straight draw. The button folds. The turn is a blank. If you check, he may decide to step in and bet having an open-end straight draw with two overcards (14 outs) and only one opponent who now shows weakness in a heads-up situation. But from your perspective it would be a tough call at this point so you may fold having the best hand not knowing that he was drawing. The alternative is too keep betting but you cannot bet him out of the hand. He will call.

I agree 100%, either bet it now (intending to fold on a raise) or fold. Wait for a stronger hand to make any sort of a move - you're out of position with crap and got no real help on the flop. The pair is high enough and connected so somebody very well could have gotten at least a little help. The only reason it might be worth a shot is because there are three players (a little extra equity and the bet seems a bit stronger against three than two - there is no way you could make this against four players). I'd probably fold, but a SINGLE bet would be ok IMO.

...is in full rigor mortis, so I'm going to wave the white flag after this reply. /images/wink.gif


This turned out a lot longer that I thought it would, sorry about that. I hope you (or anyone else still following this thread) don't mind reading through it and responding, since I still feel that you are leaving more than a big bet on the table if you give up automatically on the flop in this hand (remember, we were told the button would bet this flop nearly 100% of the time he was checked to).


First off, several of those hands you want to add were already counted (78 T8 88 99) in the 20% of hands I mentioned which match one rank on a paired flop. In case it wasn't clear, I "approximated" the 20% figure using the universe of all possible 2 card hands (which includes unlikely hands that beat you such as 83o or AA, as well as unlikely hands that you are beating such as Q5o or 72o), rather than going to the trouble of making up some reasonable range of hands to count the possibilities from. Note that with EP's proclivity to limp UTG with T7o, his hand selection doesn't appear much better than random anyway. /images/wink.gif


I would discount EP calling your flop raise cold with 22-77 or a better ace after he wasn't willing to bet on the flop. The button may have these hands, but I think you usually get him off anything worse than an 8 by betting the turn (which should be automatic if EP folds and button doesn't reraise).


You raise a good point about JT T7 67, which are 51.2% to beat you by the river. However, with 4.6 small bets already in the pot, you leave more than a big bet on the table by giving up against these hands.


Now, I'll try to reiterate my basic point, which I think got lost in all the hand probabilities in my last reply.


With 4.6 bets in the pot, your check raise shows an immediate profit if you pick up the pot only 30% of the time. Your opponents should have absolutely nothing to call with something like 50-60% of the time (adding JT T7 67 to the 8x 9x hands makes it 44% likely at least 1 of your 2 opponents has something to call with). Maybe another 5% of the time you push hands out that beat you, but are too weak to call down with (22-77, a better Ax). And against some of the hands that call (but don't raise) you are even money or better to win (i.e. Ax KQ-T QJ-T JT T7 67). So, I think you pick up the pot or have a legitimate hand well over 30% of the time.


I don't think the play of the turn is usually that difficult, either. If both players call your check raise, you are done with the hand. If only the button calls (and doesn't reraise), you bet the turn whatever it is, and can fold for a raise. If only EP calls, you definitely bet a blank or ace on the turn, and maybe bet a Q-T or 6-7 depending if you can get a read on him. You may get outplayed by a worse hand, but they will not raise you with a worse hand even close to every time. Don't forget your turn bet only needs to win 38% of the time to show a profit for your 2 big bet investment thus far, and you may still betting the best hand against something like JT T7 67.


The important point I think you are ignoring is that any chance you are betting the best hand improves your situation a great deal. Even if you want to be terminally pessimistic and say your chances of holding the best hand right now are only 40% (when I think it's more like 50-60%), you are leaving more than 1 big bet on the table if you fold on the flop, which should take you (on average, anyway) about an hour of perfect play to get back.


So, I still think you seriously undervalue this hand against 2 opponents who have not yet indicated any strength whatsoever (the button's bet was described as automatic). Absolutely nothing has happened yet to make you think you don't have the best hand. Scoff at the 4.6 small bet pot if you like, but something like 50% of the time, it was your 4.6 bets out there.