And my worst play of the night...

To accompany my "super genius" play, here is the hand I most horribly misplayed tonight. /images/wink.gif


10-20 hold'em. I have AK in the cutoff. Two players limp to me, and I raise. A fairly tough (but sometimes too tight) player in the SB calls, and 4 of us see the flop.


The flop comes QQ4 with two spades. Checked to me, I bet, SB check raises, and I am the only caller. I know this player pretty well and am pretty sure he doesn't have a Q when he makes this play.


The turn is an offsuit 4. He bets, I call.


The river is an offsuit 6. He bets, I call.

I agree with you that a Q is not too likely, since he would be more likely to trap with that hand than too chase the limpers out with a check-raise IMO.


Since he cold-called your preflop raise in the SB I would be much more afraid of a medium pocket pair. That needs protection (and therefore a check-raise on the flop would be a good move IMO), and he wants to figure out if you have a pocket pair yourself.


With you playing it so passive, I think he figures his pocket pair is good, and that is what I think you lost to.


Raising the turn and checking the river would be the best play IMO if you think he's capable of laying down TT-66 to that turn-raise.


Regards

The SB showed 99 and took the pot. Duh.


I think my worst play here was not raising on the turn (or reraising the flop and betting the turn). Since I thought he was unlikely to have a Q, he would be hard pressed to find a call. He would never have smoothcalled my raise preflop with AA-KK, and probably won't play most aces or queens against my preflop raise (and certainly not a 4). So he is very likely to have exactly what he did have, a medium pocket pair. And I would often play a Q here by smoothcalling his flop raise and then raising on the turn, and he knows this. Like I said, he is pretty tight, so I am 90% sure he would lay this hand down if I had raised on the turn. And it should have been obvious to me at the time what his hand was, so I should have found the play.


The call on the river also was a horrible play. Having a very good idea what he had, my first option should be raising (which this player would have a good chance of folding for), followed by folding. The call is just throwing my chips away. So, by not thinking during the hand, I not only cost myself the pot, but threw away another bet on top of it. Ouch. /images/tongue.gif

I think you perfectly described how you should have played the hand, the decision to raise or fold on the turn is dependent on the chance you think he will lay down his hand. I like a raise on the turn (and then I check the river against most opponents), because you have a decent draw against a medium pair (don't forget the two 4s to chop /images/wink.gif ), and this really does feel like his hand. Keep in mind against most 10-20 opponents I wouldn't raise here but thats because most aren't particularily tight, or adept at laying hands down.


Shawn

I agree it looks suspiciously like a mid-pocket pair when he check/raises the flop. Two plays you don't mention are, 1. Re-raising the flop (not necessarily to get him to fold, but because you're calling the turn anyway), and 2. Folding the river. I'd prefer 3-betting the flop as opposed to raising the turn because lets face it, he's not SUPPOSED to fold 99 on the turn...

If Coilean suspects a mid-pocket pair, I prefer a re-raise on the flop as opposed to raising the turn. I consider myself a pretty tight player and I assure you I don't fold 99 for a raise here. In fact, I might re-raise and what is he supposed to do with AK then? The reason I don't like raising the turn, is that he suspects he's beat with only 6 outs at best. Which brings up another problem with raising (and getting called) on the turn... What good does checking the river do?

I did mention folding, although only to say that it was probably my second best option after raising (and before folding). I mentioned reraising the flop too, although only in parenthesis.


When I said this guy is tough but sometimes too tight, the fact that I think he would frequently fold in this hand if I showed more strength is one reason I said he's too tight. He only needs to fold 22% of the time for me to show an immediate profit, and since I have redraws its probably profitable if he only folds as little as 15%.


As you say, he is usually right to pay the extra 2 bets to try and win 10 bets (9BB in the pot, plus the 1 more I will put in on the river) when AK AQ KQ AA KK are my most likely holdings (I probably only call down with TT-JJ, unlikely to raise preflop with 99 and lower), and only 28 (64%) of those 44 holdings beat him. His EV for calling down is:

EV = 0.64(44/46(-2BB) + 2/46(14BB - 3BB)) + 0.36(40/46(12BB - 2BB) + 6/46(-2BB)) = +2.12BB


However, because I suck and didn't raise with AK here his EV for calling my raise would be much less than that. /images/wink.gif If I sometimes check the river without improving my AK, his EV also goes down a little (assuming he still always calls the river bet, which he should), as it does if I sometimes play a JJ-TT more aggressively with a raise on the turn. All of which goes to show you, it pays to mix up your play when heads up.

"I did mention folding, although only to say that it was probably my second best option after raising (and before folding)"


Of course that should read that folding is my second best option after raising and before calling (not folding).

Assuming you're correct that he doesn't hold a Q, you are looking at medium pairs or flush draws. In either case, your only play is to raise the turn. I'd also check the river, because if he was willing to pay you off on the turn, then you're dead anyway. He would be making a catastrophic mistake folding the river after calling your turn raise unless he was on a missed flush draw.


Anyhow, I follow your posts pretty closely, and it actually surprises me to see you play this hand this way. Of course, I'm sure you'd play it differently next time (due to the fact that I'm sure he either had a medium pair and/or caught that 6 on the river while missing his flush draw and beat you!).


Keep up the great posts and great play. Just don't take my money.

I'm a tight player so here is the way I feel about this. I agree with Johnnyf that the best play is to smooth call the tight players raise and raise the turn. Being a tight player I would hate to call a raise on the turn and then the river, when there are too many hands that could beat my nines. I think I would fold the turn and move on. but then again maybe I'm too tight

I like the way you wished you had played it. Raising the turn and checking the river if called on the turn.


Players I wouldn't do this against are maniacs that may raise again on the turn and still not know if your good. But against this type of player I love the raise on the turn as opposed to calling down.

havent read the results yet.


it's when i find myself falling into this check and call mode on the expensive streets that i am almost always beat. as soon as i start to feel that sense on the turn that that is how the hand will play out i try and get up the courage to just fold.


you need to either raise on the turn here to represent a Q or muck and move onto the next hand.

havn't looked at the results but it looks like the bad guy has something like 10-10 or 9-9. I would very often call all the way to the river if the two pair on board was something like Q-Q-10-10. With Queens and Fours there are alot more hands that beat you but I guess you have to go with your read.

perhaps, the player that you know soooooo well, knows you better! He understands that you probably don't have the Q either, especially after you call. perhaps, the hand would've ended w/you winning the pot if you merely re-raised pre-flop?!?

You should have mucked your hand when you got check raised, period, end of story.

Given that he shouldn't want to shut out the other players if he has a Q by check raising the flop, my folding for 1 small bet with 6 outs to his most likely hands would be rather weak, don't you think? Perhaps you care to share why you think folding is the best play?

I'm interested in rationale for continuing after check-raise on flop. It seems that there are too many ways that you are

badly beat vs. tight player to continue, and then to raise him when he fires out on turn. I play too tight most of time, so I may be incorrect here. Seems to get expensive if he's really strong.

My rationale is that I know he (and most tight players, for that matter) would certainly not play KQo QJo (and maybe not even AQo) from the SB for my preflop raise, so he is less likely to have a Q than a medium pair or maybe an AK (although a check raise here with AK would be unusual for this player). Also, if he has a Q, he has to think if he goes for a check raise that I will be the one he raises, which usually shuts outs the rest of the players by making them call 2 bets cold. If he has a Q, he would be better off leading on the flop and hoping I raise him, or check raising the turn after collecting some weak calls on the flop from the other players who think I was betting AK.