Minnesota $30-$60 Problem

I have spent the past two weeks playing at the Canterbury Card Room outside Minneapolis, Minnesota since they recently started spreading $30-$60 holdem. I would like some comments on the following hand which I believe I misplayed. It is a 9-handed game. I limp in from middle position with the Jd-Td. The cutoff raises and only the big blind and myself call. The cutoff is a stranger to me. There is $200 in the pot and three players.


The flop is: 5d-4d-3s, giving me a flush-draw with two overcards. The big blind checks. I bet. The cutoff raises. The big blind folds and I call. There is $320 in the pot and two players.


The turn is the 2c. I check. My opponent checks.


The river is the Ks. I check. While it is unlikely I can win a showdown, I figure he will call if I bet especially since a king will touch many hands a preflop raiser might have. My opponent checks. My opponent wins with the Qs-9s. His queen-high beats my jack-high. I never figured him for this hand.


Should I have bet the turn? Should I bet the river?

Why open limp with a drawing hand like TJ suited? I think I would either raise or fold the hand leaning towards fold. Post flop there's nothing that I would've done differently. If you bet the river on a bluff and get raised you cannot call.


~stephen

in what is the biggest or next to biggest game in the house you find the most aggressive players. ive seen very frequently that they do this to you by raising after you bet on the flop with them having two overcards. so with your hand i would have reraised after the flop and bet out again on fourth. then on the river made a good guess as to what to do if they called on 4th.

since you just called after his raise you looked weak so i would have bet on 4th here as well, as all weak hands get help from that 4th street card and hopefully two overcards will fold and you will only get played with from a big pair.

since you are going to the end with this hand and dont mind plenty of action you should tend to invest an extra bet to give yourself a chance to win when you are beat by a weak hand.

I knew I did something wrong. I think I put the guy on an overpair based on his preflop raise followed by a raise of my flop bet. I pretty much gave up on the hand unless I hit. In a $15-$30 game, this may be correct but not in the bigger games I am discovering. I like your flop reraise since it costs me very little mathematically at this point and may give me some leverage later on. He may even lay it down right there. It would also have helped if I had known more about my opponent.


I am surprised he did not bet the river since queen-high does not rate to survive a showdown normally.

Jim,


The flop semi-bluff bet on the flop is something I don't like. Its a toothless tiger. It seems right on the surface but doesn't hold up to scrutiny. I have posted this before. The guy behind you has at the very least overcards, so he isn't going anywhere on the flop. If he's paying attention he knows you can't have a big piece of that flop either. I would play this either as a semibluff with sufficient firepower to make it work or as passive Bob and just check call. (either bet out with the intention of reraising, or check with the intention of check raising). If you check, the guy behind bets, and you pick up a call from the blind it won't kill you as you have two in, and I would make that checkraise still. It would add credibility. I would lead at the turn no matter what comes. It the blind looks alert, take the free card and hope guy behind doesnt ruin the plan. If something unforseen happens you will know that your overcards are probably no good.


Playing as you did, I really don't like a turn bet because the board makes any ace a gutshot made straight and that usually helps him more than you. The player behind will either usually have an ace or a pair. They don't usually fold pairs, and the ace gives them a straight. Your gonna get raised there alot. Of course, you would get out overcards without an ace, so the bet isn't that bad, and maybe a stinky pair, it just looks hard to believe.


On the river you look doomed. I think you have to just concede to the player with position and lament how different things would be if you were acting last.


Regards.

I agree 100% with Ray. I was gonna write exactly what he did, but he beat me to it. I always play these hands strong. Ethier bet the flop and 3 bet if raised, or check-raise the flop. And lead at the turn no matter what. Give him a chance to fold if he is weak. Alot of player will raise on the flop no matter what, with overcards, but if you 3 bet and lead there done unless they spike one of there cards. As you point out, they may even muck right on the flop.


Btw, that is if I played this hand. I think limping in middle position with this hand is a bad play. Either muck or raise. And usually will be a muck. I might raise once in a long while if conditions are good. Blinds are tight, and I have a tight image at the table.

I wish you hadn't said what he had right away..


Limp first in from middle with JTs? I think you are better off raising or mucking, unless the field is loose enough that you expect 2-3 callers behind you who won't raise. It may not be a big deal whether you limp, raise, or muck -- I just don't like inviting a weak raise from behind with a limp, especially after I have pretty much forfeited my right to represent anything decent on a big flop.


On the flop, I would usually reraise. The cutoff's preflop raise against 1 limper doesn't mean much of a hand, and he is pretty much guaranteed to have overcards to that flop, so his flop raise isn't that informative either. Your reraise probably doesn't cost you anything since you have 12 outs even if he holds a better J or T, so are about even money to beat most of his hands by the river. But by reraising here, you should often be able to win the pot with a bet on the turn if he had nothing and you both blank. He may raise again, but I think you should take the chance here.


On the turn, I think you have to bet. He can't put you off something like Axs, and your bluff doesn't have to succeed much to be profitable. Your quick guesstimate should be that you need to succeed about 10-15% of the time (15% success shows an immediate profit, you have redraws to win a bigger pot if called, but you can be raised). I would say it's more than 10% likely he has no ace and no pair, so I think you should try the bluff.


On the river, it seems very likely he has nothing after checking the turn. He may be trying to induce a call or something, but that would be strange when it looks like you can't have anything to call with anyway. Since your nothing is likely worse than his nothing, and your bluff only needs to work 15% of the time to show a profit, just do it! /images/wink.gif


Now, with the leisure of postanalysis, we can try to calculate how often your bluff on the turn must succeed to be profitable. The pot currently has about 5.6BB, so let's find the EV for check calling the turn. You lose without improvement 31/46 times, and win another bet 9/46 times when you make a flush (this payoff assumption doesn't matter much since we will be comparing it to results with the same assumption for your bluff). We'll also give you a 50/50 chance to win or lose another bet if you make a J or T, so a 3/46 chance of either case.

EV = 31/46(-1BB) + 12/46(9.6BB - 2BB) + 3/46(-2BB) = +1.17BB


Now, say your bluff succeeds with probability X, so that you win the 5.5BB pot if he folds, or you otherwise fall into the cases described above with probability 1-X. Additionally say there is a 40% chance (this may be high, but let's err on the side of caution) he raises you with or without an ace, so you lose an extra bet when you miss your draw these times and will no longer win anything if you hit a J or T.

EV = X(5.6BB) + (1 - X)(0.6(31/46(-1BB) + 12/46(9.6BB - 2BB) + 3/46(-2BB)) + 0.4(37/46(-2BB) + 9/46(11.6BB - 3BB)))

EV = 5.6BB*X + (1 - X)(0.6(+1.17BB) + 0.4(+0.074BB))

EV = 5.6BB*X + (1 - X)(+0.73BB)

EV = 4.87BB*X + 0.73BB


So we want to know when the EV for bluffing is better than the +1.17BB for check calling:

4.87BB*X + 0.73BB > 1.17BB

X > 0.0903


So your bluff on the turn only needs to succeed 9% of the time to be profitable. If you play with the chance that your opponent raises your bluff on the turn, you find that your bluff is a freeroll if he never raises when he calls (pretty obvious if you think about it), or needs to succeed 20% of the time if he will always raise the other 80% of the time.

Jim the way I would have played this would be to raise before the flop go for the blind coup. Since, you did not raise before the flop. I would have check raised the flop looking for a tell. If you figure you can win it on the turn with a bet I would then bet. If I felt he was just sucking me in I would just check the turn and go for the odds. If the other player in the post plays back your decision has been made for you. All the best. Play well and have fun.

Jim,


Welcome back. I agree with a few of the others that this hand loses value before the flop in a tight game after a few others have folded. Either raise or fold before the flop.


BTW, did you make it to Costa Rica?


Regards,


Rick

Hey Jim,


I've read the other posts, and I know I'm somewhat in the minority, but here are my thoughts for whatever they're worth. I don't dislike the limp preflop, though in late-middle position I might be more inclined to raise. I found the games in Minn. to be often quite passive and don't think that limping with this hand is so wrong as you may attract other callers and get volume on a decent drawing hand. On the other hand, I also found some of the players up there to be strangely overaggressive preflop from late position and from the blinds, is suppose this is probably a function of the 2/3 blind structure which I'm not used to in Chicago(even when we play 30-60 we play w/ 15dollar small blind). This being the case I would be more inclined to check-call or check-raise the flop as the preflop raiser is likely to have a hand that he won't release before the river(the fact that there's a third player involved decreases the chances of outplaying the raiser). If the raiser has a pair or an ace he probably won't muck before the river no matter what comes on the turn given the flop. He'll call the turn or keep betting (raise the flop) with an overpair or two overcards and a gutshot. As for the river, I don't think your missed bet is usually a mistake, how often is this bet going to work? Most of the time you're up against a hand that will pay you off unless the third player is still in and that would be an even tougher bet. As for the way it went down, how can you bet the turn when you might get raised by a wheel, costing you an extra bet to draw to your flush(which could even be drawing dead).

It seems alot of the posters are trying to show ways that you can win this hand(or advise not playing it), we all know that you can't win every hand that you play and that when faced with aggression from a player with better position we are going to be at a disadvantage, I think this is a pretty routine situation, though obviously I don't mind playing in some situations that have an overall negligable expectation, I think its been good for my action(not that I particualarly seek out action).


JMHO, enjoyed meeting and playing with you in Minn,


Mike

Welcome back, Jim!


Pre-flop: When I limp in first from middle postion, I feel like I might as well hold up a sign that says, "I'm weak, take advantge of me from later positions." Dump it or pump it, preferablly dump, unless it looks like a couple of players behind you are ready to fold.


On the flop: Again, when I bet a flop like this and only call the raise, I feel like I am holding up sign #2 which says, "I only have overcards and/or a flush draw. Play accordingly, my worthy opponents." The flop had to have missed him; reraise. Lots of good things can happen for just one more small bet.


On the turn: I would have bet here. He's going to fold anything without an Ace and he might not raise even with an Ace, waiting to see if a flush comes up on the river or not wanting to chase out a bluffer.


On the river: Once he checked the turn, I would have bet the river. (Thought he might not have raised with an Ace on the turn, he certainly would have bet with one.) Pretty tough for him to call as it looks like you were waiting to trap him on the turn.


Anyway, tough to play out of position when your action is limp, bet/call, check, check.

Mike,


No, you can't win every hand. But if your gonna play the hand to the river. Don't you want to give yourself the best chance to win? The way I play it, its not costing me too much more to do the same thing you want to do. Which is see if you make your draw. Because really its only costing one sb on the flop more. The turn he will bet most of the time if you check call flop and turn. So I lose the same on the turn. I don't have to bluff the river. Thats a judgement call on what I think he might have and whether he likes to keep me honest or not. But I think I'm actually the favorite to win this hand and show a good profit doing it, because of the way I play it. Its close to even money for me to outdraw him anyway for the majority of hands he might have. I think what makes me show a big profit, are the times he doesn't have enough to call on the turn with. More often than not, he will just have over cards and not be able to call. If he does have enough to call thats okay too. Because like I said before, I'm even money anyway to win. This aggressive play is very affective when you have a very solid image. Becuase you will get them to lay down ALOT of times on the turn.


I think check calling this hand is the worst way to play it. But thats just me. As I am a come betting fool.

Pokerguy,


I'm not disagreeing with your flop play, but because of the texture of the flop (with an ace having a gutshot draw) you're going to atleast get called by most hands until the river regardless of the turn card(unless maybe when you make the flush and they don't have a redraw), but you are not even money anymore if/when they call the turn--now you likely have at best sixteen outs with only one card to come. If you miss on the end, then you have another tough decision in whether or not to bluff. I don't disagree with playing draws strongly, but it is much easier to do with position, not having position carries with it liabilities and I think that this situation is often one of them. If their positions in this hand were reversed it would be much easier play this hand very aggressively. Maybe I just get involved with a few too many drawing hands(we've had this debate before), but it seems to me to be pretty expensive in the long run to play every/many drawing hands this strongly when out of position, especially since we don't always have as many outs as we think/hope.


Mike

I went to Costa Rica the first time they had the trip. I did not make it on this second trip because I was playing in Minnesota. The $15-$30 games in Minnesota are great. They have a reasonable rake (no collection, just 5% up to a $4 max) and the games tend to be loose, passive which is my favorite type of game.

Thanks Coilean. Preflop, I agree that open-limping vs open-raising is probably not a major poker decision. This game was a little loose, so I expected calls from the blinds at least. I don't like committing a lot of money up front with a suited connector.


You are quite correct in stating that preflop raiser in late position does not have to have full values for a raise against an early/middle limper (although I think he should have if the limper is a decent player). Many players raise in late position with weak hands after a solid player limps in early to try and isolate him and bet him out of the hand at a later stage if they don't get help. This was my mistake. I mentally put the guy on a big overpair or two big cards especially when he raised my flop bet.


Good post and excellent analysis.

"Limp first in from middle with JTs? I think you are better off raising or mucking, unless the field is loose enough that you expect 2-3 callers behind you who won't raise. It may not be a big deal whether you limp, raise, or muck -- I just don't like inviting a weak raise from behind with a limp, especially after I have pretty much forfeited my right to represent anything decent on a big flop. "


That's why you sometimes limp w/AK, AQ & JJ-88. This works esp. well in loose, passive games where weak players are actually sometimes more likely to call a raise rather than a limp, as they want to gamble for a big pot. And, of course, said opponents automatically put preflop raisers(esp. first in from middle or late) on AX & KX, and will call all the way w/gutshot, or bottom pair w/no A or K on board.


I can't tell you the number of times I've been first in w/AsKs; raise and get 3-6 callers, board 9s7s3d2cQh, bet it all the way & lose to 7h6h; OR limp preflop w/same hand, get maybe called by button & blinds, same board, bet it all the way and win uncontested on the turn or river.


I don't agree w/Caro about much, but I do agree that many players raise too much pre-flop and that pre-flop play is overrated v. turn play. Also, game selection is more important than every other factor combined, and loose-passive games are the best.


Ergo, tonight I'm not going to raise preflop at all, and tomorrow I'm only going to raise w/AA&KK first in early & middle and maybe go down to JJ-99 first in from cutoff & button. Then I'll play it regular on Thursday. I'll let you know how it worked out.


BTW I think the protracted EV calcs are interesting but can get novices mired in needless complexity(similar to memorizing starting hands charts or doing game theory estimations for a $10-20 game). Slightly OT, the golf magazines are complaining that pace of play has slowed markedly on public courses as duffers emulate pros on TV following their sports shrink's advice to "not to hit it till you're ready". I wonder if poker will have the same problem form those who've read too much Roy Cooke! /images/smile.gif


That being said, it's nice to see the mathematical backup for the gut instinct that James probably should've bet the turn. Your posts are very valuable and informative.

I agree with the point that limping or raising with JTs is

not a huge issue here.


I'm not sure I like the bet on the flop. With the players

arranged as they are, it seems like you're likely to end up

with exactly one opponent, which is the exact number you don't

want. Two would be okay, zero would be great. Like others

have said, I think I'd check and see what happens. I might

call or check-raise, depending on various other things.


The real difficulty in this hand seems to be Jim's position

(er, lack thereof). Betting the turn seems to be asking

for trouble because there are a *lot* of aces that the raiser

can have. And Jim can't fold if he gets raised on the turn

because of his diamond outs.


It's seductive to play this hand in hindsight, knowing that

a reasonable amount of pressure would have won the pot. But

without knowing the opponent's cards, out of position, and a

board that very credibly gives the preflop raiser a wheel,

Jim's just in an awkward situation. I mean, what's he supposed

to do if he bets the turn and the guy raises? Re-raise ("No

really, *I* have the ace.")? What if the opponent has

something like Ad-Qd - you're drawing dead, wanna getting into

a raising war?


My attitude about awkward situations: if you think you're

getting the right price to draw, then call ("Huhuhuhuhuh - he

said 'call'."). If you're not, dump it, next hand.


Note that *with* position, this hand plays out much more

differently. C'est la guerre.


Regards, Lee

I often bluff at opponents who I don't feel are too sophistocated if they appear to have made a classic free card raise on the flop and then check the turn when the draw doesn't get there. I don't know what your read was on this player, but if you don't have too much respect for him I might put him on something like AQ looking for the straight or something and bet into him. That's just me.


MB

I agree, that with this flop you will get called more than others by more A high's. But they don't have to even have A high here. Could be any 2 facecards. And my way your not losing much more in bets playing it aggressively if your planning to call the turn anyway. But giving yourself a much greater chance of winning without improvement.


If the texture of the flop was different would you play it more aggressively? Say 2,3,10. 2 to your suit. What about A,2,8? K,8,3. Of corase all with you flopping a flush draw. Is it only because of the 2,3,5 flop. Or do you not agree on pushing draws out of position period?


And your not even money anymore on the turn, but you sure have plenty enough outs to make continuing correct. I think you might as well bet, instead of check call. Its still one bet, but the times he mucks will surely make up for the few times he raises the turn. And then some. And you still have a chance to outdraw him if your raised and still win the pot. But he can't win the pots he forced to muck the turn. And you pick up all those bets without even making your hand. Which imo makes up for, and shows a profit, for the few occasions when he gets a few extra sb's out of you when he has enough to call or raise.

"Should I have bet the turn? Should I bet the river?"


Sometimes you should bluff on the river no? IMO there isn't really one right answer but I like the considerations that Ray enumerated a lot. If you checked the turn and your opponent checks behind you, your bet on the river doesn't look that suspicious to him given the board IMO.

The flop bet would be fine if there was a medium to high card there somewhere. That is, when Jim limps from middle position and then bets on a 543 flop into a preflop raiser, there are really only two hands that he could have - either a flush draw or a hand like 88/77 (and the flush draw is way more likely).


But, if the flop were, say, Q43 with two diamonds, then I think betting the flop has a lot going for it (even though the Queen may have hit the preflop raiser). Those resaons were discussed in one of Mason's recent "hand to talk about" posts.

Pokerguy,


Just woke up, forgive me if I make less sense than usual /images/wink.gif . Yes, I meant, that this flop in particular causes problems because of the gutshot wheel possibilities. No, I'm not saying that I never will play a good draw strongly out of position. Flush draw, w/ something else like, pair, or gutshot, I'm going to play more strongly to try and get an idea if I can win w/out improvement. I also don't think that you can completely discount the times when you are drawing dead on the turn to the nut flush draw and also situations where an ace merely calls the turn so as not to be reraised by a 6-high straight and to let a worse hand keep betting. I realize that Jim would be far less likely to have the raiser's possible wheel beat with a 6(this is all hypothetical of course) than some players, but the raiser may not know that.


Mike

Given the sequence outlined, I think betting the river has a ton of merit. I might get A-Q or A-J to fold. I would almost certainly get Q-9 suited to fold.

Jim,


Is there a typo in your original post?


The flop is: 5d-4d-3s, ....the turn is 2c


AQ and AJ have straights. How are they gonna fold?


The only hands that are beating you that will usually fold are Q high hands. Everything else lower than that, you win in a showdown. The rest call, after that sequence.


Regards.

Sorry, backdoor and everyone else. I am now wondering if I got the hand wrong since I do not believe there were four parts to an open-end straight on the table. It may have been something like 5d-4d-2s with the turn card being a non-diamond blank which was not a big card.

I don't think its a big deal. Hands can go do any which way anyhow, so our posts helped us regardless.


Regards.