Folding top two on the river for a raise

This was a hand I observed in the local 20-40 game while waiting for a seat in a different game, and I was wondering what you all think of the SB's play on the river.


The player I am standing behind is a somewhat solid player in the SB, and lifts his cards high enough that I can see his AdKc. A decent player I don't know very well limps in from late, and a loose player on the button calls. The SB raises, the BB folds and all call.


The flop comes Ac Tc 3h. SB bets and both players call.


The turn is a 9c, completing the flush. SB bets and both players call.


The river is a Kd. SB bets, the decent player raises, and both the button and SB fold.

Wow. Awesome laydown, that is, if it was right. :-)


I guess the main question is, would the decent player raise on the river with two pair? That would depend largely on how much respect the decent player gives the SB's preflop raise. Apparently the SB thinks the decent player respects his raise from the blinds sufficiently to conclude that the decent player does not fear a set or a bigger two pair. So it looks like the decent player has either QJ and took one off with an gut-shot turned open-ender, or he made a medium-to-small flush on the turn and did the old wait-to-see-if-another-flush-card-hits-and-if-it-doesn't-then-raise-the-river play.


Either way, I think this hand is a great example of how important it is to think things through on the river when tempo is not a factor.


Tommy

Yeah, I had the exact same thought: great laydown if he was right. /images/wink.gif


Another reason the decent player might wait until the river to raise with his flush (or maybe a set, although you would think he would raise a pair first in from late position) is to earn an extra bet from the button.


Anyway, like you say, it's depends mostly on how likely SB thinks the decent player is to raise holding only two pair on a pretty scary board. AA KK AK should be the most likely hands for SB after he has shown all that strength, and they all beat any two pair hands the decent player is likely to have.


One thing I didn't like was how fast the SB folded. He mucked his cards almost as soon as he was raised. He's either thinking farther ahead than I am, or he is making some bad laydowns on the river. If the other players ever catch wind of this, SB may be facing many raises on the river in his future.

If as you say sb knows decent player put him on a strong hand to that point then what was the point of sb betting the river at all?

why not just check and call one bet, and fold to two bets?

I think it'd be nutso to check the river with a lose player on the button who had been calling all the way. The BB was the last preflop aggressor and met no resistence on any street. This typical registers as "he might not have all that much." I can picture the button paying off with as little as a king, thinking (hoping) that the BB has QQ or JJ.


Tommy

I'm wary of outsmarting myself into folding headsup for one more bet on the river, but this looks like it might be an exception.


If the the player is reasonably solid as described, the texture of the board and the way it was played go against two pair, and set and a straight.


What two pairs can he hold? If he had T9s, he makes a cheesy flop call, then just calls instead of raising with a three flush looming? The other two pair might be KTs. But I would buy that more if the K were suited to the board flush, which it can't be unless he limped in with KTo. UGH. Other two pairs have the same clouds hanging. Two pairs just don't feel right.


Isn't a set going to raise the turn to shut off a singleton medium club from the button? If not, solid isn't the right word.


A straight would mean that he hung on with a gutshot on the flop, without odds, against a two flush, squeezed between a good bettor, and the button. Sounds like a plan to you? Even if was, you gotta get outta this place.


Flush, flush, flush. Was either seeking weak button overcall or was just waiting to the river, when the coast was clear.


Notice that the king on the river is immaterial to the small blind when the two pairs idea is extinguished. It's a false beacon of hope.


So the question is: do i believe in what I believe enough to fold? Small blind did. Don't worry, if you fold wrongly, your family will still love you.


I like the bullet fold on the end. It says, "well that cheese is no good" and leaves the multitudes wide eyed and wondering.


regards.

"I think it'd be nutso to check the river with a lose player on the button who had been calling all the way."


How can this be? especially since a flush has been on the board since the turn, and a str8t makes it on the river? Why not just check the river if you are going to fold to a raise?


By betting the river and folding to a raise you are risking the whole pot to gain a bet or two.


If you check and call one bet you get to see the showdown for the same price as your bet and fold, and maybe win the pot.

Depends on how your opponents play. If they are likely to call with many losing hands but unlikely to bet with them, you should bet, hoping for a call, and then fold to a raise since they will raise with so few hands that can't beat you, if any.


You make money on your bet enough times to cover those times when you get raised.


This is totally dependant upon your opponents. If they are tricky aggressive for instance, your play is to check-call, obviously.


natedogg

Super post, backdoor.


"I like the bullet fold on the end. It says, "well that cheese is no good" and leaves the multitudes wide eyed and wondering."


Me too. When I manage to do a bullet fold in a situation like this one it usually means that the longer I'd delay the more likely I'd be to succumb to a crying call.


Tommy