10-20 question

Pretty typical 9 handed 10-20 game, about 3 or 4 players seeing the flop each hand.


I get dealt black aces on the button, three limpersto me and I raise. Both blinds and all limpers call. 6 players, $120 pot.


Flop is KK5 with two spades and I have the ace of spades. Checked to me. There are at least two players at the table that will slowplay a King here all the way to the river but I don't really want to give out freebies to lower pocket pairs or spade draws (even though I'd have redraws with the Ace of spades and to a full house).


I bet (would anybody check here?), all fold except one early limper who calls. 2 players, $140 pot.


Turn is a 6. Limper check-calls. 2 players, $180 pot.


River is the six of spades completing the flush and making the final board KK566.


Limper bets.


What's my play?

I probably check the turn against one opponent if I suspect he may have a K. And he is a tricky player. He might raise and represent a K, but doesn't have to have it. So I will not be able to lay the hand down and may cost myself 2 big bets on the turn if he does. And may induce a bluff on the river if I check the turn. Either you have him in bad shape if he doesn't have K. Or he has you in bad shape if he does. But if you have him in bad shape he may fold the turn, but if he has you. You'll lose 2 bb.

Close one. I say raise.


Call only good versus bluff. 10 to 1 not good enough to call IMO.


Fold if you think he could only be holding the king. There are two things going for this theory: 1) He doesn't have the ace of spades, so to have a flush he would have to have been drawing to the non-nut spade. 2) AK makes sense; he knows you are drawing virtually dead with anything you could have.


But I go w/ raise. 1) He is losing a bet by not check-raising the turn. That doesn't make sense if he's holding a king. 2) His slowplay only makes sense w/ KQ or AK since he is from early position. You have the A, making that holding very unlikely. And that eliminates reason #2 for folding. 3) I believe it is a +EV play to bluff raise the flush or 6 here. If he does not have a king, then he would likely give you credit on the raise...you've been betting the whole way, including a dangerous turn bet. That shows a lot of confidence, so why shouldn't you have the king?


So I say bluff raise him. $40 to win $200. Add the likelihood you are beating another legit non-FH/flush hand (slim to none) with the likelihood that he is bluffing with the likelhood he has the flush/6s over FH and will fold, and you have the best play. If you thought a call had +EV, then that makes a raise even more valuable. Curious what others might respond.


Mojay

I totally disagree on raising the river. He will not throw away a full house and most will not throw a flush away either. The play is to call and hope he's bluffing. If its a totaly rock that doesn't bluff you can muck. Raising is the worst play. It may scare him if he has a flush or 6. But he isn't gonna throw it away.

Cry, call, and lose the pot.

You can't raise - he's going to bang back. What could he possibly have that he is still going to be in there with? Unless this guy is so loose and aggressive, then you still have to call.

I agree, don't raise. Y'know sometimes on this forum I see responses to posts that give the relatively unknown opponents a lot of credit for being able to think. It was a long, sometimes hard lesson for me to learn that others don't think the way that I do.


If the opponent in question has a clue he should realize that his flush (if he made one) is no good against a K anyway and that he should maybe check to induce bluff from a hand that may not call if bet into. Of course, if the opponent is a decent player and he realizes the above, he may bet a flush, willing to muck for a raise from what should be atleast K's full. That would seem to make mojay's raise a good idea, but probably not in a 10-20game where players are not generally so advanced.


I'm tryin' to think what I would do if I made a flush here; I suppose I would check against a tricky opponent and bet into one that's much more predictable where I could safely muck for a raise.


Mike

I think your river play depends on what you know of your opponent. If he is passive, you might want to fold. Passive players often think they are outkicked and won't bet until they have caught up. If this is one of those players who could slowplay a king until the end, you might want to fold also. This is just a real tough call against anyone, because the only draw on the flop just got there. The only way you can call is if you think there is a better than 9% chance that this player would have hung around until the river with a worse hand, and then decided to pull a move by betting it. I think it's a pretty rare player who wouldn't check raise on the turn, if he were planning to make a move at all.

I think it's a pretty rare player who would muck a better hand for your raise more than 17% of the time. Which is what you would need to make a raise here profitable.

Thanks for all the responses.


I folded for the reasons Coilean points out in the above post. I was surprised that it was the only post saying I should fold. The only draw got there, and this player was capable of slowplaying a King until the river.


I thought the chances that he check-called an underpair all the way and then made a move on the river were too slim to make calling profitable.


I think that calling in these situations has been a major leak in my game. Every time I make a lay down like this I lose less and less sleep over it.

Tony,


I might have checked the turn once it was head up. Yeah you give a free card to a flush draw but you save yourself from getting trapped for two bets when your opponent has a king. Some opponents with weaker draws such as underpairs will now call a river bet after they check but they may have folded to a turn bet (you want this sequence even though they spike a full once in a while).


On the river you can only fold against an opponent who rarely makes a move or can't get inside your head. A thinking opponent could easily have the aforementioned underpair (not all fold here) and he decided to make a move when a double scare card comes since he now figures to call your bet anyway and he knows you need a king to raise.


Regards,


Rick

Tony,


You didn't say much about the player in your original post but note that if YOU find yourself head up against a raiser with dead money and a medium pair with this type of board consider making the move when the scare card comes. You probably call a river bet anyway and sometimes you will get the rockets to lay down if your opponent is pretty good but not so good he can see that you may be making a move.


Regards,


Rick