when to fear the overset?

30-60 bellagio hand:


UTG limps, next player, who is sane, raises. Button cold calls, I call in the BB with 66.


Flop comes QsJs6. I check, raiser bets, button folds, I raise. UTG cold calls, raiser reraises. We eventually cap it, with the guy in the middle paying the whole way.


At this point, I am concerned about the possibility of an overset. Raising with JJ/QQ and hitting a set would look like this.


Turn is a 4, and I bet out so as not to give a free card. Caller calls, raiser raises, I call.


River is an 8, I check, checked around and my hand is good.


So should I have been concerned about the overset? He could have also have AA/KK/AQ/AsKs. The middle guy was clearly on some sort of draw, or flopped top two and didn't like the check raise on the flop, which seems unlikely.


So how worried do I need to be about the overset? Any other comments on the hand?


- target

Often players wont go crazy on the flop when they flop a set. Often they wait until the turn, but then again from my limited Vegas experience getting capped on any round is fairly rare so I think you had some reason for fear of a bigger set.

Remeber that this board was higly coordinated and is going to produce you lots of action from draws and maybe something like top two pair.

I would think raiser had over pair or AQ. I would also think

middle player didnt have top two because he would have woken up at some time with a raise more then likely. I too would put him on a draw. I have no problem with your play. If you were behind the raiser then pounding back is the course of action. But given your poor position I think you played it well throughout.

You played well. I can't count the times that I have been sure that I have been beat with 2nd or 3rd set, when the person raising ends up having only top card-good kicker or top two. That's why poker is still "gambling," you have to take chances. I think Rounder had a great point - he plays these hands slower (which tightens the std deviation). But, these are the hands that make you the $$$, so you want to build it up. You'll get beat now and then, but more often than not you pull in the chips - so you want as many as possible in the middle.