Quick question for a common situation

This type of situation seems to come up from time to time and I'm not entirely sure how to play it. In brief I'm playin 15/30 HE last night. I raise one off the button with AK and get calls from the big blind and two people who limped in front of me. The flop is J55. I don't bet when it's checked to me for reasons we don't need to get into here. The turn is another Jack. Two checks and the player in front of me bets. I'm fairly certain this player would have bet a Jack on the flop. I pop it figuring I have a good chance of having the best hand but don't want to give him a chance to catch a pair if he was trying to buy it, and if not I can probably knock this guy off of something like a pair of eights in the hole and probably a 5 also. He raises back and I muck certain he wouldn't raise without a Jack. He shows J-2 of clubs as he rakes the pot. I would like to know others thoughts on how to play this situation, particularly in a game against obvious passive players. How would you play if you held those eights? or an over pair to the board?


Your thoughts appreciated.


mike

You obviously have wealthy parents, a deep-pocketed wife or play because you are bored. The raise w/AK facing J55 makes a rank sucker appear professional. Your only option was to fold.

You've never raised a board of two pair with a lone Ace kicker against a probable steal?


Supes

"A probable steal" is much different than two limpers that call a raise besides the BB. On the turn you are facing the possibility that #2 limper has AJs, AJ,A5s, A5,56s,45s,10Js,10J,JQs,JQ,KJs,KJ, plus there are two more players behind you who could possibly have one of these holdings. Furthermore, although the odds are 3.3:1 in your favor that neither of the 2 limpers or BB hold a J or 5, this does not factor into the equation the different over-pair combinations, any other player holding an ace, or the fact that some of the other players may think that you are making a move and therefore make it 3 or even four bets to go!?! The major problem lies in the fact that these three players were granted a free card!

In many of the games I play in I would agree with all of these statements, but this particular game is full of weak passive players. This is a room I play at when I am in Chicago and it is far easier than what you would encounter in Vegas or LA. It was very likely that any player would bet a Jack on the flop and check a five with the intention of check raising the turn. When the first two players didn't bet the turn I was positive they held neither, and I also thought it was likely that the third player was trying to steal. It turns out this time I was wrong, but I'm very sure a great majority of the time this assesment would be correct. I felt I was likely to steal half the pot or save the whole pot if I did have the best hand but allowed him a free shot to pair up. to simplify the question, how would anyone play that Ace if you knew for a fact that no player held one of the cards paired on board... nine times out of ten that would be exactly the case.

You claim a weak player would position him/herself to check-raise on the turn yet after two players could have done exactly that you bet into them with confidence knowing that these "weak" players are what?...to "weak" to outplay you with a silly play that you knew before you bet was the "only" strategy that such "weak" players were capable of performing. If this was your diagnosis: your best play should have been the polar opposite of your bet.

It depends on the sophistication of your opponent.


If I steal bet the turn, I would not be very scared if you raise (you would only check the flop if you had JJ and you certainly wouldn't raise the turn with JJ). I would not fold and would likely 3 bet you with a worse hand. On the other hand, I would probably fold if the sb or bb checkraised me because they would have had reason to check the flop and then again check the turn.


Next hand, if I try the same steal and a less sophisticated opponent finds himself in your shoes and raises me, I would probably fold.


So, short answer, these creative plays are effective in tough games with sophisticated opponents. They are counterproductive in games where guys are voluntarily seeing the flop with J2.


As an aside, I think you need to have a very good reason not to bet this type of flop i.e. raggedy with a low ranking pair against just 3 opponents.

[On the flop] I don't bet when it's checked to me for reasons we don't need to get into here.

I'm interested to hear your reasons.

Oh... nothing too exciting. The small blind has more tells than Mike Caro could count. As the action came to me I saw him subtly reach for two bets, so I was expecting the check raise. He'll regularly check raise flops like that whether he has the trips or not. When he didn't be the turn after no one bet the flop I knew he didn't have the goods. I didn't mention before just because I felt it was irrelevant to the question at hand.