Chess Championship

[Clarkmeister]

Any of you chess guys have an opinion on this line?

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game -108
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -102

[Dynasty]

I hadn't heard of Kramnik defending his title but here's some quick information to get things started.

Kramnik is the player who defeated Gary Kasparov in 2000 to end Kasparov's decade-and-a-half domination of the chess world.

Acording to the official FIDE ratings (http://www.fide.com/ratings/top.phtml), Kramnik is ranked #3 in the world. He's a decent amount behind Kasparov who many think is still the best player despite losing the World Championship. He's also a bit behind V. Anand who is widely regarded as being in the same league as both Kasparov and Kramnik (but certainly a bit behind Kasparov until he proves otherwise).

I don't know much about Leko other than that he's currently ranked fourth by FIDE and he's a rather young 24. He's never competed for the World Championship before.

You could try posing the question in the Fide Forums (http://forum.fide.com/).

[Dynasty]

Miscellaneoous: He's a link to a story by Bob Ciaffone about Kramnik beating Kasparov in 2000.

http://www.michess.org/webzine_200102/worldchampionship.shtml

[Dynasty]

I couldn't find a good site which is covering the match. This is the best I found.

http://www.mark-weeks.com/chess/a3a4dnix.htm

A total of 14 games is to be played under classical time controls. Vladimir Kramnik is defending the title he won from Garry Kasparov in 2000 against Hungarian GM Peter Leko, who qualified at the Dortmund Candidates in 2002.

14 games is very short for a World Championship match. Because the match is so short, I think Kramnik will play defensively. He'll play not to lose, especially with the black pieces. As a result, it's very unlikely Leko will win the match. He may not even win a single game. I'd say Leko has at best a 20% chance of winning the match.

[Non_Comformist]

How do "professional" chess players make money?

Are there prizes for these things, sponsors?

[Dynasty]

Matches and tournaments at the highest level have sponsors. In many situations, the sponsors provide the funds with no expectations of making their money back.

[David Steele]

Here is a good place for regular chess news.
The Week in Chess (http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/twic.html#futureevents)

The story looks about the same as the one you posted.

I like Kramnik at that line, can't figure what they are thinking.

D.

[Gamblor]

Same way professional golfers make their money.

Someone throws a tournament, gets a sponsor, sponsor gets ad-time, top players get cuts of sponsor's money.

[TimM]

What's the line on this match being really boring?

Kasparov needs to get his act together again...

[David Ottosen]

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game -108
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -102

Here's what I will tell you (if you don't care to have any back story, I'll just say go to the bottom and there will be my pick).

Kramnik made his big debut playing for the Russian Olympiad team at Kasparov's insistence when he was 17, and backed it up with some ridiculously impressive score. Kasparov at all times had been quoted that Kramnik was his "likely successor", but Kramnik stumbled a few times (including a waxing at the hands of Shirov in a pseudo World Championship qualifying match). He eventually just got gifted the match against Kasparov and won it, in part due to Kasparov's insistence on trying to beat a drawish line of the Ruy Lopez.

Leko is also interesting; he broke the record for youngest Grandmaster ever and used that publicity to play with the "big boys" (the group of 6-10 super GMs at the very top) a few times, and was suitably crushed. After grinding it out for a few years, he made a breakthrough and moved up to that Super GM level himself.

Kramnik's results have been very uninspiring since winning this World Championship, while Leko has moved up to the super super GM level (which really includes only Kasparov, Kramnik, and Anand).

Both are very drawish players, very dull to watch many times. Both are known for being incredibly difficult to beat. As well, unless the rules of this match are unusual, the champion (Kramnik) will keep his title in the event of a tie. As such, I think there is incentive for Kramnik to tie.

Personally, I consider the match a toss up and would, presented these odds, put my money on Leko, no question for the following reasons:

1) Better value on Leko at 102
2) Likelihood of a tie and Kramnik's lack of incentive to win
3) Chess etiquette/tradition; say it enters the last game tied, and Leko needs the win to win the match; he goes all out and fails, getting a losing position. Chess "etiquette" will generally mean Kramnik offers a draw here anyways, and the match would end tied

Just my opinion.

[David Ottosen]

I might add I would never bet on "Victor" Kramnik. Whoever that is, I'm sure he's not as good as the current World Champion Vladimir Kramnik /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[David Ottosen]

I posted the same question on a couple of our chess newgroups. Other than one Russian player who felt Kramnik would blow him out of the water, most players agreed that there was value in betting Leko. The three respondents I put most stock into were two masters and an International master; one of the masters said he didn't know, and the other two both felt Leko would be at worst a tiny underdog, and possibly the favorite.

[TimM]

Hey, I recognize you from ICC or FICS (can't remember which).

[David Ottosen]

I played both occasionally, but really only played on FICS very much.

[bigpooch]

I don't think there would be much value on either one of
these bets. The rating difference between Kramnik and Leko
is quite small and Kramnik may not have much incentive to
win the match. On the other hand, Kramnik did have a nice
win against Leko in a Sicilian Sveshnikov in this year's
Linares tournament and he does have more match experience
than Leko.

I think you may have the best of it betting on Kramnik, but
you shouldn't expect much of an edge.

[Cyrus]

(A match is series of games.)

- I don't know if you are allowed to "past post" and how many moved deep into a Chess game. But know this: in Chess, Bayesian rules are to be used very, very cautiously as they apply to the opening. Say, Kramnik has the edge over Leko by 11-7 (Kramnik has won 11 games and lost 7, in their lifetime meetings, with draws not counting). Say, also, that Kramnik has a 100% record against Leko when playing White and the opening is Opening Variation A. They have played some 4 games with that and Kramnik won them all. If in the game you are betting on, you see Leko as Black going into Opening Variation A, then you are NOT to assume that Kramnik now has some huge advantage. What you should assume is that Kramnik will probably face difficulties in the early stage of the game, at least, because Leko has some "opening surprise" in store, i.e. he would not go into A unprepared!

-- Specific conditions of the games to be played are more important than people realize and particularly the rules on time. Players gain (or lose) on their strength according to the time limitations. Look for older people to be more comfortable with extended time and young people the opposite. (Remember to make an exception for "eternal youths" such as Karpov, Korchnoi, and others, here.)

-- ELO ratings are not to be taken lightly. They provide a solid rating of a Chess player's strength. ELO is also very good (it is actually designed for that) in indicating what is the likely result of a match or a game. Google for how ELO is computed and what are the ELOs of the two heroes.

That's it for now.

[Clarkmeister]

Thanks David.

[Clarkmeister]

Updated line for those who are interested. As Ottosen surmised, the money has come in on Leto:

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game +103
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -113

[MMMMMM]

"14 games is very short for a World Championship match. Because the match is so short, I think Kramnik will play defensively. He'll play not to lose, especially with the black pieces. As a result, it's very unlikely Leko will win the match. He may not even win a single game. I'd say Leko has at best a 20% chance of winning the match."

Kramnik did a helluva job playing defensively against Kasparov; hard to imagine he'll have even that much trouble playing defensively against Leko. But hey, what do I know about Leko.

[MMMMMM]

Any line on Kramnik retaining his title?

[Clarkmeister]

No. That's the only bet I've seen. You'd just have to risk the tie.

The line is from Pinnacle.

[Punker]

I don't like the bet as much as I did before, but if you gave me $100 and said bet on the match, I'd still put it on Leko at this point.

[J_V]

Root for Kramnik if you enjoy seeing the life sucked out of chess.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Root for Kramnik if you enjoy seeing the life sucked out of chess.

[/ QUOTE ]

People said the same thing about Karpov. Then, he went on to have several of the best matches ever against Kasparov.

Kramnik neads a rival who can push him to be better.

[David Ottosen]

I don't think Leko is exactly the savior of exciting chess either.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Root for Kramnik if you enjoy seeing the life sucked out of chess.

[/ QUOTE ]

People said the same thing about Karpov. Then, he went on to have several of the best matches ever against Kasparov.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I remember this general sentiment. Someone even made the comparison that "Karpov" was like a "carp"; a slow, boring, bottom-dwelling fish.

I would have like to have seen a Deep Blue vs. Karpov match. I think that his "boring", closed line style of play would have fared better than Kasparov's effort. If you recall, in the first match against Deep Blue, Kasparov initially tried to tactically outplay Deep Blue, which resulted in a disastrous effort. He eventually wised up, and in the final game he kept a closed position that had Deep Blue totally pinned with no plan.

For some reason, in the rematch, Kasparov tried to play "anticomputer" chess, and he ended up being totally outside of his element. He was obsessed with getting DB out of its opening book, to the point where Kasparov let his play deteriorate.

I think that Karpov could play his normal game (keeping closed, non-threatening positions), and have a good chance of beating Deep Blue.