CardPlayer Magazine Article about AK

[Chris Daddy Cool]

So I'm at the casino and I pick up a copy of CardPlayer with Greg Raymer on the front cover and flip through the pages and see this article. I dont' have the copy with me and I forgot who it was, but it pretty much went like this...

A solid player raises UTG. It's folded back to you in the SB with AKo or AKs, doesn't matter. The best play more often than not is to fold. I almost choked back on my Pepsi. I'll let others who've read the article more closely elaborate on this, but I think it's clearly terrible advice.

[Ed Miller]

The article was by Rolf Slotboom, and he basically just transcribed a thread from 2+2. You are correct, Mike Caro and Rolf have this clearly wrong against 95% or more of all UTG raisers.

[tyfromm]

It's time for a witch hunt. Someone find the thread and identify the posters that gave out this advice.

[pudley4]

Even Mason agreed that folding AK is correct if the UTG player is so tight with his raising that he would only raise AA, KK, AK, and QQ. However, if he would also raise with dominated hands like AQ, AJ, and KQ, then the fold is clearly wrong.

[Ed Miller]

Even Mason agreed that folding AK is correct if the UTG player is so tight with his raising that he would only raise AA, KK, AK, and QQ.

Mason is absolutely right. Unfortunately, I have found exactly one player in all my poker career who I feel fits this category reliably.

[Richie Rich]

What range of hands do you think your "typical" hold 'em player will raise when sitting UTG?

[Ed Miller]

What range of hands do you think your "typical" hold 'em player will raise when sitting UTG?

At the very least AK-AQ, AA-JJ... that's the tight ones.

[Richie Rich]

I agree with your "at the very least" range of hands for a solid player. So unless we know our opponent is a LAG, I'm not sure why AKo is almost always an automatic call from the SB (when you're out of position), especially in a NL game...

[Ed Miller]

I agree with your "at the very least" range of hands for a solid player. So unless we know our opponent is a LAG, I'm not sure why AKo is almost always an automatic call from the SB (when you're out of position), especially in a NL game...

This has nothing to do with no limit. This is for limit only. And the fact is, you should 3-bet with AK, suited or offsuit, from the small blind if UTG opens with the hands that I listed. If he opens with more hands, it becomes an even easier 3-bet.

[TXTiger]

It's not uncommon to see ep raises with hands as bad a A9s and ATo in the online 15/30 game. No way I would consider folding AK here. The big question I had after reading the article was, "How many people have high enough utg raising standards to make folding the AK correct." My answer would be that the percentage is so small I'm not going to consider folding unless I have a very strong read based on playing with this particular ultrarock quite a bit.

[cnfuzzd]

I would certainly three bet with AK,, and try to make it look like i was ready to three bet as soon as the UTG raised the blind. If he or she knows you are a tight player, you might even push them off AK, and if not, the only have you are a huge dog to is AA.

peace

John Nickle

[Richie Rich]

I think the key word, here, is "solid" player. Which doesn't necessarily mean "tight", but it's fair to assume that he has a good understanding of the fundamentals of poker (like table image, importance of position, what he thinks you think, etc.).

Okay, so you 3-bet and he calls...
** You missed the flop and he bets. Do you call, fold or c/r?
** You bet when you hit a K on the flop, and he smooth calls. Now what do you do when a blank falls on the turn? If you bet and he raises?

Or say he 4-bets and you call...same scenarios.

We all know that AK is a very strong hand, and one that many would not consider folding before the flop. But when you consider all of the different factors -- you're out of position, you will only make TPTK 1 out of 3 times, he may have AA/KK -- I don't think playing back at him with AK heads-up is a +EV move in the long run.

ps~ perhaps those with PokerTracker can share their total amounts won/loss with AK in the SB. My AKo is up, and my AKs is solid...but I also think that has to do with the fact that I play this hand in the right spots, and have even folded it too. I've heard from quite a few 2+2'ers who are actually down with AKo from the blinds or EP...maybe because they're playing it too aggressively.

[Richie Rich]

thx

[Ed Miller]

Okay, so you 3-bet and he calls...
** You missed the flop and he bets. Do you call, fold or c/r?

Well, I'm first to act, right? 97.4% of the time, this won't come up, because I've already bet.

** You bet when you hit a K on the flop, and he smooth calls. Now what do you do when a blank falls on the turn? If you bet and he raises?

Once you hit a K on the flop, you are basically going to showdown.

I don't think playing back at him with AK heads-up is a +EV move in the long run.

The big blind money makes this easily +EV.

ps~ perhaps those with PokerTracker can share their total amounts won/loss with AK in the SB. My AKo is up, and my AKs is solid...but I also think that has to do with the fact that I play this hand in the right spots, and have even folded it too. I've heard from quite a few 2+2'ers who are actually down with AKo from the blinds or EP...maybe because they're playing it too aggressively.

PokerTracker data is virtually useless here. No one has nearly enough hands in the situation in question to draw any conclusions.

Richie, this is really not a point worth arguing. No expert limit hold 'em player would routinely fold AK in that spot. Period.

[astroglide]

180,000 hands. AKo in the sb 186 times. i saw the flop 100% of the time, i play the hell out of it, and i'm +0.84bb/hd. but yeah, i don't think this one is even worth debating.

[Ed Miller]

Ok.. first the facts:

If your opponent will raise with ONLY AA-QQ and AK, you should fold AK in the small blind.

If your opponent will raise with AA-JJ and AK, it becomes closer.

If he will raise AA-JJ and AK-AQ (adding ace-queen), 3-betting becomes correct.

Here's the BIG problem with this "fold AK in the small blind to a tight UTG raise" advice... if you misuse the advice slightly, it becomes very bad, very quickly. For instance, if you remove the word "tight" from the advice, it becomes absolutely horrible advice:

"Fold AK in the small blind to an UTG raise."

This is an example of advice that has a very small upside if used correctly, but a huge downside if used incorrectly. If you play $20-$40, and you correctly implement this advice, it is likely to save you literally no more than $20 per year (actually, I think that's a generous estimate). This is because you encounter someone who fits this profile (will raise with ONLY AA-QQ and AK) SO RARELY that you will basically never get the opportunity to USE this advice. You have to

1. Find such a person (VERY RARE... I've encountered maybe three or four in my life)
2. Manage to get AK in the small blind at the exact moment that he receives AA-QQ or AK in the UTG position
3. Have it folded to you

My guess is that this will happen to someone who plays 40 hours a week no more often than once every few years. So if the advice saves you $20 each time you use it (also an overestimate), you are saving no more than a few bucks a year.

Now examine the MISUSED advice. As opposed to the relatively rare case of someone raising only AA-QQ and AK, you will find a TON of people who raise hands like A3s, A9o, and 55. If you fold AK in the small blind against such a player, you have made a SIGNIFICANT MISTAKE. Not only is this a significant mistake, but you will find the opportunity to make this mistake relatively often... maybe as much as once per week. So misusing this advice could cost you as much as $500 per year or more.

Whether you like it or not, people do not read closely. They remove stipulations and restrictions. People WILL misuse your advice. It is partially the responsibility of the advice-givers to avoid advice that has a very small upside if used correctly, but a huge downside if misused.

So EVEN IF Rolf is correct (and he's not), it's STILL bad advice because of this. I guarantee you, the readers of Rolf's column will, on aggregate, LOSE MONEY as a result of reading this AK piece.

[astroglide]

i think he should change his name to "ROLF LOOL1"

[joker122]

.

[Blarg]

Have to agree with all that, but want to add two things.

Even unbelievably tight players sometimes vary their game a little bit; I know I've seen it. It doesn't happen often, but it happens. So even when you have a flawless read on how tight someone is, if it turns out just to be near-flawless, the fold may be making even less and losing even more. Tight players are not necessarily too dumb to mix things up once in a while. They actually get a great deal of mileage out of it when they do, because nobody believes them capable of it.

I'm saying this as someone who's seen rocks do it, and as someone who plays tight myself, and uses that image sometimes to do quite a fair amount of stealing. Just a couple of blind steals an hour, or getting one or two guys once in a while to fold on the turn, can put you well ahead of a game.

Also, online you have even less of a rock-solid read on someone's playing, unless you perhaps have many hundreds or even thousands of their hands analyzed via Pokertracker or the like. There are fewer useable tells or other ways of judging people -- clothing, voice, etc.

So you compound the fact that people can do a change-up on you with the fact that tells and overall reads are less reliable in the first place online, unless you have quite a lot of stats on them, and the idea of instantly folding the AK seems even less worthwhile to the online player.

[bernie]

I wouldnt mind if some of my opponents took this advice to heart and 'learned' a new way to 'save' chips with AK. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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