10-18-2001, 06:34 PM
This is a followup question to some issues raised by a hand I posted below.
Here's how the hand went.
I raised an early limper with two red queens. The button, a conservative player, cold-called, the blinds defended and the limper called.
The flop came JTx with two diamonds.
The blinds check, the limper bets, I raise, now the button cold-calls and the limper calls after the blinds fold.
At this point I am pretty concerned about the the guy behind me (isn't that always the case?).
He is a conservative, fairly straightforward player but not weak-tight enough to fold a real hand. In other words, tight and tenacious without a lot of tricky aggressive moves in his repertoire.
The limper is loose and unpredictable, but not terrible. So it looks like the button either has me beat, has a diamond draw, or MIGHT have top pair. The limper wouldn't be in there for no reason, but it's not clear what he has.
The turn brought another diamond. Checked to the button, who bet and we both called him.
The river paired the T, making the board JTTxy with three diamonds.
Check to the button, he bets, the limper folds, I call, and lose to four tens. The limper tells me he had the Ad. This is EXACTLY what I was afraid of on the turn.
In hindsight, I felt I should have folded the turn, but as someone pointed out, that's probably a little too results oriented.
But what SHOULD I do here?
It definitely seems like check-folding the turn is weak-tight. But in a situation where I'm pretty sure I'm losing, and there's very little chance I'll push off a hand better than mine, what is the better play than check-folding?
And if I don't fold on the turn, should I call the river?
One solution is to bet the turn and fold to a raise. But what happens when he just calls me on the turn? The problem presented by checking the turn is that if I check, it shows weakness and he may be betting with a hand that I can beat. But if I bet the turn and he just calls me, do I bet the river? Do I check-call the river? Do I check-fold? Check-folding the river after betting the turn and getting called seems even more weak than just check-folding the turn, doesn't it? But if I check the river, that shows weakness and then I'm back in the situation where he could be betting with a worse hand just because I showed weakness.
What is the right play here?
Remember, the button is conservative, understands hand values, and is fairly tenacious without using any tricky aggressive moves.
In this case, if I had bet the turn, he would have only called, that is almost guaranteed based on how I observed him play later throughout the session. Of course, he would have bet or raised the river with quads, but I'd certainly be in a quandry on the river after getting called on the turn. The problem with checking at any point, it looks a LOT like I'm slowing down with mere overcards.
Another problem on the river is that the pot is fairly large. Check-folding seems totally uncalled for. But that is because of the fact that I put money in on the turn (either by betting or by check-calling). On the turn, the pot is not so big, but on the river, the pot is pretty big and means I have trouble folding here. Do I even have a REASON to fold here on the river, other than facing scare cards? I mean, the guy never raised once on any street, how can I fold?
If the button had given even the SLIGHTEST indication of being aggressive with marginal hands, I believe a call is automatic. But he hasn't so far, and now I'm in a quandry.
This situation seems like a mess. What is the best play?
natedogg
Here's how the hand went.
I raised an early limper with two red queens. The button, a conservative player, cold-called, the blinds defended and the limper called.
The flop came JTx with two diamonds.
The blinds check, the limper bets, I raise, now the button cold-calls and the limper calls after the blinds fold.
At this point I am pretty concerned about the the guy behind me (isn't that always the case?).
He is a conservative, fairly straightforward player but not weak-tight enough to fold a real hand. In other words, tight and tenacious without a lot of tricky aggressive moves in his repertoire.
The limper is loose and unpredictable, but not terrible. So it looks like the button either has me beat, has a diamond draw, or MIGHT have top pair. The limper wouldn't be in there for no reason, but it's not clear what he has.
The turn brought another diamond. Checked to the button, who bet and we both called him.
The river paired the T, making the board JTTxy with three diamonds.
Check to the button, he bets, the limper folds, I call, and lose to four tens. The limper tells me he had the Ad. This is EXACTLY what I was afraid of on the turn.
In hindsight, I felt I should have folded the turn, but as someone pointed out, that's probably a little too results oriented.
But what SHOULD I do here?
It definitely seems like check-folding the turn is weak-tight. But in a situation where I'm pretty sure I'm losing, and there's very little chance I'll push off a hand better than mine, what is the better play than check-folding?
And if I don't fold on the turn, should I call the river?
One solution is to bet the turn and fold to a raise. But what happens when he just calls me on the turn? The problem presented by checking the turn is that if I check, it shows weakness and he may be betting with a hand that I can beat. But if I bet the turn and he just calls me, do I bet the river? Do I check-call the river? Do I check-fold? Check-folding the river after betting the turn and getting called seems even more weak than just check-folding the turn, doesn't it? But if I check the river, that shows weakness and then I'm back in the situation where he could be betting with a worse hand just because I showed weakness.
What is the right play here?
Remember, the button is conservative, understands hand values, and is fairly tenacious without using any tricky aggressive moves.
In this case, if I had bet the turn, he would have only called, that is almost guaranteed based on how I observed him play later throughout the session. Of course, he would have bet or raised the river with quads, but I'd certainly be in a quandry on the river after getting called on the turn. The problem with checking at any point, it looks a LOT like I'm slowing down with mere overcards.
Another problem on the river is that the pot is fairly large. Check-folding seems totally uncalled for. But that is because of the fact that I put money in on the turn (either by betting or by check-calling). On the turn, the pot is not so big, but on the river, the pot is pretty big and means I have trouble folding here. Do I even have a REASON to fold here on the river, other than facing scare cards? I mean, the guy never raised once on any street, how can I fold?
If the button had given even the SLIGHTEST indication of being aggressive with marginal hands, I believe a call is automatic. But he hasn't so far, and now I'm in a quandry.
This situation seems like a mess. What is the best play?
natedogg