Hedging opportunity on Lakers/Pistons series

[Dynasty]

This is crossposted from another site. It interested me so I thoguht I'd get some input here:

4 months ago I put down a 2-1 bet on the Lakers to win it all. I never thought of hedging that bet but the Pistons have looked much better than I thought they would, especially with Karl Malone's condition in flux. So I'm considering hedging my bet. I am considering some options that would give the following payouts:

Lakers Win Pistons Win
1000 (500)
800 (10)
700 235
600 480


Here's how it works-scenario 1: Lakers win, I win 1000; Pistons win, I lose 500.

Which one looks most appealing?

[wateronrock]

I'm in the same boat. After the Lakers beat SA, I bet them to win the title at -136$. I gave hedging some thought prior to the Pistons series as +600$ seemed high, but I hated the idea of giving back EV.

My freind was begging me to hedge as we both hate the Lakers, and wouldn't be able to watch the games together if I went the mercenary route. I didn't hedge.

After game one, I wasn't too worried. I thought it might just be the wakeup call the Lakers needed? Then I watched game two... oh oh, Detroit seems to have many ways to get open looks against this team, and we all knew they could play defense. Now I'm officially worried /images/graemlins/grin.gif .

The way I hedged was to bet that the Lakers will not win 3 straight games in the series at -142$? Do you guys think this is a good angle? If the Lakers do win the next two on the road Detroit is toast. I think this gives me a decent chance to win both bets and some insurance. I don't think Detroit will roll over so I think it will be a back and forth series with the lakers winning in six or seven with a good chance of going back to LA down 3-2.

[Porcupine]

[ QUOTE ]
I never thought of hedging that bet but the Pistons have looked much better than I thought they would, especially with Karl Malone's condition in flux.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. What I've seen so far is that the Pistons have too many healthy/energentic players that they can use to wear down Kobe and Shaq. I heard a rumor that something is wrong with Fisher so he isn't able to properly get his legs under him to shoot. With the Pistons being tough on Kobe/Shaq, Malone hurt, Fisher not doing it, etc. I don't see them scoring enough points to overcome their (comparatively) poor defense.

The Lakers are hurting and look very tried. With the finals games being played nearly every other day (unlike the frequent 4 day breaks in the early rounds), I don't see where the Lakers can get healthy and rested enough to win.

>Which one looks most appealing?

Based on what I said above, I'd go for the 600 : 480 option. However, if you believe in the Lakers, I'd go with the 800 : (10) and just consider it a freeroll at 800.

[rtrombone]

It's simple. It depends on how likely you think each team is to win. If each has a 50/50 shot, the fourth option is the best.

I think the Pistons are the favorites at this point, so the fourth option looks even better. But I'm biased.