Turn raise with a draw

This was a hand that I played several years ago. I posted it on this board and it turned into a fairly long thread with all kinds of comments (both good and bad) on my play. I can’t remember what my thinking then was but I know what my thinking now would be if the hand were to take place today. Anyway, we now have several new regular posters on this board and I thought it would be interesting to get your perspective.


Here’s the hand from a loose 10-20 game.


I am on the button and limp with 9c8c. 6 others have already limped ahead of me. The sb calls. The bb is an elderly gentleman who plays an ultra conservative game. He raises (a bb raise from him signifies to me that he has AA or KK with a slight chance of QQ or AKs). We all call and take the flop 9 handed for 2 bets each making the pot $180.


Flop: AJT rainbow (can’t remember if there was even one club on the board).


The bb bets. 4 players including me call. The sb folds leaving the bb as the player to my immediate left. The pot is $230.


Turn: 2 (can’t remember if it put a 2 flush out there – if it matters in your final analysis, please indicate as such).


The bb bets again. I now rule out KK/QQ. He has AA with a slight chance of AKs. The other 3 players call again. The pot now has $310.


I raise.


The bb calls. 2 guys fold and one other chap calls. The pot is now at $390.


River: 7


It’s checked to me. I bet and the bb paid off. The other guy folded.


All comments appreciated.

Why would you raise the turn? You're surely going to have to make a hand to win this pot and your hand has no showdown value. In addition a K is possibly a split pot situation. Raising the flop for a free card is fine, but raising the turn makes no sense.

I don't like the turn raise for the following reasons.


1. Were you raising for value? No. You are possibly drawing dead. What appears to be an open ended str8 draw is actually a gutshot draw since a Queen will very likely make some one elses hand. I consider a raising with a draw on 4th street when I at least had a draw to the nuts and a minimum of 9 outs. You have neither.


2. Were you raising as a semi-bluff? I hope not. A predictable opponent has said very clearly that he likes his hand. The chances of him folding are slim, not mention the other three players. I also don't like to semi-bluff with multi-way action in a loose game.


3. Were you raising to make people fold? I suppose you could justify the raise by hoping that someone with a K would fold, thus giving you up to 4 additional outs. The pot is so big that I think only a really bad, passive player would fold a King for one more bet.

reason #1 should be drawing to a split pot, not drawing dead. Don't know what I was thinking.

I don't really understand the raise. I'll assume there is not a flush possible but if there was a flush possible then your raise makes even less sense, unless of course it is two clubs on the board. If you suspect BB has AA then there is no way in hell he is folding so the raise is a poor semi-bluff.


Again assuming no flush is available, your outs are only a 7 or a Q, however, a Q gives anyone with a single K the big straight so there is a good chance that the Q is not an out and you are drawing to four outs. It's probably worth the call on the turn but why pay the extra bet by raising? Perhaps your thinking that a raise will make someone with a K fold and if the Q hits you are good. That is the only reason I can see for raising.


When the 7 does hit on the river it's not that scary of a board and if the BB has AA he will probably still bet out and then you can raise him and make the same amount of money, if the 7 didn't hit you save one big bet.


Anyway that's my take on it... I'd hate to replay some of the hands I played a year or two ago... scary!!!

I'm trying to multi-task at work and post on 2+2 at the same time. going nutz.

pre-flop-


good


flop-


its a call, but i would only consider the 4 7's as outs here.


turn-


again, drawing to 4 outs i would just call.


the 7 on the river would look pretty inconspicuous,providing good implied odds, i am sure the bb is sweating a K or Q popping for the gutshot broadway. your raise here as 11.5:1 dog is suspect. although it may cause the action to get checked to you when you hit a Q and therefore you can show it down rather than get bet out of the pot when the Q is good for you.


river-


of course you bet here.

I don't really like the turn raise.


First, four of your outs are going to split almost half the time. There is a pretty good chance the rock has one (more ways to have AK than AA on this board), and a good chance that one of the other three players has one (KJ and KT are likely hands). I'd say you'll win the whole pot about half the time and split it half, so I'd say your four outs are really the equivalent of three outs. And if the turn card really does put a two flush on board, then I'd take away another equivalent out. So I'd count on having about six outs, and I'd say I have almost no chance of winning unless I make my hand.


I wouldn't raise the turn because:


1) I probably win less bets when I win and lose more when I lose. After you raise, you'll probably get checked to on the river and are less likely to get over calls. If you just call the turn, you might have 3 callers to you on the river and get to raise. By raising the turn you're risking 2 bets to win 1 instead of risking 1 bet to win 2.


2) There is very little chance of getting the rock to fold, and even if he does, you still will probably get called down by at least one of the limpers and you have no showdown value.


3) You aren't getting the best of it by raising your draw even if the other four players will always call. I assumed 6-7 equivalent outs with 46 cards unseen, but even if you assume that all 8 outs are good and assume there are only 44 cards unseen if you know the rock has AA, you still will make your hand less than 1 out of five times.

skp,


I can't understand why you raised the turn. With only have 4 opponents, it can't be a value raise. I think that you make matters worse for yourself on the river with a turn raise. If the river comes a relatively innocuous 7, then there is some chance that the BB would bet into the field if you had not raised the turn, but he will not do so if you raise the turn. The BB will never reraise the turn, which is good in that you won't lose customers for your draw, bad in that he won't make a K fold. So what were the good comments regarding raising the turn? Sorry that I don't have time to be more thoughtful right now, but dinner and a paper are calling my name.


-Dan

Actually, many details may be off so my memory really ain't that good. In fact, as I was trying to recollect how the hand came down, I thought that the flop may have been JT8 and then an Ace on the turn....whatever...but the idea behind the turn play is the same in either case (the idea itself is pretty questionable - that's why I reposted the hand).


I will talk about the idea a little later once everyone else has finished lambasting me /images/smile.gif

Seems to me getting those single Ks out is one of the main points of the raise.


KJS

"The bb bets again. I now rule out KK/QQ. He has AA with a slight chance of AKs."


if this is the case then why raise on the turn as he may 3 bet it and then you will lose all your customers (if you make your straight), plus cost yourself another bb to draw to it.


just call and let him lead again on the river and trap all those people in between so you can raise those times you make your hand on the river card.


now to go look at the other posts and see what im missing here.

Turn raise to try to knock out opponent(s) with a stiff king? S&M have emphasized not saving bets when the pot is big, so it seems worth raising here if you can give yourself even a slightly better chance to win the pot. However, anyone who has come this far with a K seems very unlikely to fold to your raise. Pot odds are more than enough for them to call w/just a gutshot.

I like the call preflop. I like the call on the flop. I hate the raise on the turn. With you knowing the "rock" has AA or AK it doesn't make sense. He may reraise you and make you pay even more for this weak draw. As you only feel comfortable with a 7. Q you may lose to someone holding a K. Even worse with a 2 flush since your outs might now be as little as 3. I think you should want to pay the minimum to see the river, not the maximum.


River I like your bet. Thats a great card. You've got them. If anybody had a bigger straight you would have heard about it on the turn.

The main point of the raise is, imho, is to give yourself a true open-ended draw instead of just the gutshot.


On the flop there are 18SB in there, meaning any gutshot is going to have correct odds to call just for the gut shot.


However, on the turn there are 29SB in the pot. 31 by the time it gets to skp. He's getting 31:2 on his gutshot call, which looks like a good call, however, if he raises - he's offering the KJ, KT and AK hands 35:4 or 8.75 to 1. Most reasonable players w/ the bare K or K+pair hands would fold for his raise, whereas they are prolly going to call for the 1 bet getting 33:2 or 15.5 : 1 which is plenty of odds to draw to the gutshot.


When he raises, if he succeeds in knocking out all the K gutshots so he's head up against a set of A's, he's dramatically increased his chances of winning.


For the sake of arguement, we'll make some assumptions.


If he successfully knocks out all the K's by reducing the odds, his chances of winning double from 4 outs to 8 outs, thus his chances of winning the pot go from 42:4(4 boards cards + AA in bb's hand + his cards) which is 10.5:1 to 42:8 which is 5.25:1.

Percentage wise that's 8.7% vs 17.4%.


Since there are 31 bets in the pot when it gets to him, the pot he'll win on the river will be

Calling - 37 bets in on the turn(w/ two calls behind) + 2sb's on the end from AAA when he hits the 7 = 39 bets - at a cost of 2sb.


Raising - 37 bets in on the turn(no calls behind) + 2sbs on end regardless if Q or 7 hits = 39 bets - at a cost of 4sbs.


Thus his equity in calling is 8.7% * 39 = 3.39 sbs, at a cost of 2 sbs and 17.4%*39=6.78 sbs, at a cost of 4sb.


Thus by raising he's increased his equity by 3.39sb while increasing his cost by 2sbs = net gain of 1.39sb.


Key assumptions made :

Noone flopped the broadway - in which case he'd fold to the raise or re-raise behind him, he loses 2 more sbs if he raises.

No flush draw out there - flush draw makes it less likely to knock everyone out(or atleast K's out if they have flush and all 7's and Q's are no good).

Everyone folds to raise - If one K incorrectly calls then it skews the results.

The read of a set of A's is 100% accurate.


These assumptions prolly are somewhat flawed, but are useful to see a 'perfect' scenario where everything goes according to plan.


Notice that if the pot is > 22 sbs, the play is a money maker, whereas if the pot is <22, you lose equity for the play b/c the pot is too small to overcome the extra investment on the turn.

"Most reasonable players w/ the bare K or K+pair hands would fold for his raise, whereas they are prolly going to call for the 1 bet getting 33:2 or 15.5 : 1 which is plenty of odds to draw to the gutshot."


one fundamental problem with what you say:

skp is on the button and the suspected AA or AK is in the BB so all the players in between have already called one big bet on the turn meaning many of those K hands might call one more big bet, at least they would be correct in doing so.


otherwise i like what you say. but the fact that they already called makes his raise here pointless.

Hey...some support...I was starting to think that Matth was right when he said that I must have been sozzled to make this raise.


Anyway, here are my thoughts:


There are 3 principles all set out in HFPAP that seem to come into play:


1. In big pots, try and win the pot. Forget about saving bets.


2. If you must call, consider raising.


3. Sometimes raising with the second best hand is proper (I realize that I don't have the second best hand here. I only have a dubious draw but a raise coupled with a 3 bet from the bb would give me a better draw).


With that in mind....


...On the flop, I already know that my draw is dubious. I probably only have 4 outs and could in fact be drawing dead if one of these guys is bushwhacking the rest of us with KQ. But still, I clearly cannot fold yet. I would also think a raise serves no purpose because even if bb 3 bets it, no one with a King is going to muck on the cheap round.


...On the turn, the situation is a little different. Firstly, when everyone again just calls the bb, I can be confident that no one has KQ. Now, I am still probably looking at a gutshot. Even so, that's just a 11:1 shot and there is $310 in the pot. Therefore, I must at least call.


So, the real question is whether raising is better than calling. We are told that raising with the second best hand can at times be the proper play i.e. increase your chances of winning the pot. Now here, for my raise to have the same effect, I really must get some help from the bb. That is, he has to 3 bet it because as others have pointed above, no one with a King is going to fold for just one more bet.


So, as I see it, if I raise, three things could happen:


1. The bb could reraise with his AA and that would definitely get out the singleton Kings. I am not sure if the EV calculations would justify my putting in $60 on the turn instead of $20 in return for turning my gutshot into an open-ender.


Note that if I were the bb and I held AA, I would 3 bet it in this big pot. If I run into KQ, cest la vie but I am not going to let some guy make his gutshot cheaply. When I posted this hand initially years ago, I made the raise hoping that the bb would 3 bet me. But now, I am not sure that I would hope for the same. Again, I suppose the Ev calculations would shed some light on this.


2. The bb could just call but even that may be enough to get someone to drop a single King (although the chances of that are slim as noted above).


3. the bb calls and everyone else also calls including those with single Kings. Of course, in this scenario, my raise would be bad but it can't hurt the image too much if I go on to hit the miracle 7.


Anyway, I now think that the raise is probably slightly wrong but by no stretch is it one that is reserved for the sozzled ones.


BTW, suppose I had for some reason played 98s UTG and the betting went the same way. Now, if I raise the turn, the singleton Kings should drop rather than calling $40 cold. But, the pot would only have $250 when it is my turn to act. Would your calculations support a raise? How big does the pot have to be to make raising the proper play?

"On the turn, the situation is a little different. Firstly, when everyone again just calls the bb, I can be confident that no one has KQ."


how can you assume that since you dont remember whether or not there was a flush draw on the turn? if there's a rainbow board on the turn and a KQ say somewhere like UTG then why wouldnt that player continue to go for the overcalls and hope to even call-reraise on the river (barring a paired board)? that's how i would play it given the right situation. why let everyone off the hook on the turn?


"When I posted this hand initially years ago, I made the raise hoping that the bb would 3 bet me. But now, I am not sure that I would hope for the same."


then that makes no sense, because you will surely end up with what actually happened:

"3. the bb calls and everyone else also calls including those with single Kings"


DOH! now youve just charged yourself an extra big bet to draw to a gutshot.


good thinking: wrong time to apply it.

"If there's a rainbow board on the turn and a KQ say somewhere like UTG then why wouldnt that player continue to go for the overcalls"


He could but he would be in error to do so given the size of the pot.


"When I posted this hand initially years ago, I made the raise hoping that the bb would 3 bet me. But now, I am not sure that I would hope for the same."


then that makes no sense, because you will surely end up with what actually happened"


We have a misunderstanding here. What I mean is that I am not sure that investing $60 is worth it to get the singleton Kings out. So, if I were to play the hand today, I am not saying that I would raise and hope that the bb does not 3 bet it - that would be silly. I am saying that I would probably just call. I would not raise the turn in the first place. But my point simply is that though raising in this situation sounds like it's way wrong, it really isn't all that wrong if there is a good chance that the bb would 3 bet it.

While a call on the turn is certainly in order given your pot odds of 15:1 and the action indicating no made straight is out, I really don't like the raise. The main reasons to raise the turn in your position are 1) to get a free showdown with a weak hand (that you were going to call down with anyway) that could improve to something worth betting, 2) to get more money in the pot when you are a favorite, and 3) to set up a chance to steal on the river. In this case, none of these reasons seem to apply: your hand has no showdown value even if you pair; you are not a money favorite against 4 players with 4 good outs and 4 questionable outs (you are worse than a 1:4 favorite even if all 8 of your outs were to the nuts); finally, even though everyone will probably read you for the straight or a set when you raise, your odds of stealing should be nil against the elderly gentleman with AA or AKs, who is correct to call the river given the huge pot size.

On a peripheral point: If you were the bb and had AA, would you 3 bet the turn when the button raises on a board of AJT2?

if i made the AA on the turn i would go for a checkraise on the turn. i would risk giving a free card here (unlikely no one would bet with all these players in) in order to force people to fold or call two bets cold when they get caught between me and the better. i would just call a turn reraise and check call the river if i didnt fill up.


if i had made the set on the flop i would have bet out there hoping to 3 bet it, then lead on the turn of AJT2. i would 3 bet here with top set every time. if i am behind to KQ then i have many outs to draw out. if im against AT, AJ, TT, JJ, JT, or 22 i am getting so much the best of it that to not raise is a crying shame. plus i want to charge Ks and Qs in between the raiser and i as much as possible and hopefully make them fold. i think players who would just call here are making a very big mistake.

The only explanation is that you raised the turn because the other players in the hand also thought the raiser had AA or KK, and since they tought you probably knew that too, the only hand you could play that strongly is QT.


So you are representing the straight hoping the others will fold and that the ultra conservative player will give up on the end if he doesn't get any help.

I find your reasoning for the raise intriguing. When I thought of reasons you might want to raise the turn, I missed the chance you might create extra outs if the BB reraises -- I was just thinking that anyone with a king surely wouldn't fold for one more bet. So, here are some EV calculations for scenarios on the turn:


BB reraises with AA and gets out everyone else. BB pays off 1 bet on the Q or 2 bets on the 7:

EV = 38/46(-3BB) + 4/46(22.5 - 4BB) + 4/46(24.5BB - 5BB) = +0.83BB


BB reraises with AK and gets everyone else out. You pay off the Q, and get paid on the 7:

EV = 38/46(-3BB) + 4/46(-4BB) + 4/46(22.5 - 4BB) = -1.22BB


BB just calls your raise, leaving 1 player with the gutshot king in. You make 1 more bet on the 7, and lose 1 more bet on the Q:

EV = 38/46(-2BB) + 4/46(-3BB) + 4/46(20.5 - 3BB) = -0.39BB


You don't raise and are against a gutshot king. You make 2 more bets on the 7, and lose 1 more bet on the Q:

EV = 38/46(-1BB) + 4/46(-2BB) + 4/46(20.5 - 3BB) = +0.52BB


So, under ideal conditions your raise makes 0.31BB when the BB reraises with AA and the kings all fold. Under most other circumstances, the raise lowers your EV; also, the raise is obviously much worse than the cases here if there is no king to push out, or if someone with a king calls the reraise anyway -- I didn't do the calculations for these two cases because it should be apparent that you are only putting in more money with the worst of it. When questioning the assumptions made in these EV calculations, keep in mind that only a folding error makes a huge difference to the result; arguments over winning (or losing) another bet or two are worth about 0.09BB of EV per bet in a 4/46 case.


In general, I still think your raise is ill advised here, since the only case where it is beneficial relies on another player to make an aggressive play on your behalf, and there are several other cases where it costs you extra money. But I like your reasoning that you can create extra outs if the BB will reraise with his set of aces. If the circumstances were slightly different (say you acted right after the BB on this hand, so didn't have to count on his reraise to make your play work), I can see where your raise might easily be a money maker. This is the kind of play I often miss (raising to create outs), so I appreciate your post and comments here.

Yes, I would reraise every time with AA if I was the BB, and probably even with AK if I thought about it enough (then I am the one trying to create extra outs). I wasn't thinking of you creating extra outs if the BB reraised when I made my first response. Check out my response to you under Rookie's post. If the BB reraises with AA every time, and if the kings always fold, you make +0.31BB. The problem is that you lose a lot more than that if the BB doesn't reraise, if a king calls the reraise anyway, or if a king was never out there in the first place. All things considered, this is never the kind of calculation you could quickly make at the table, so your raise is probably not that bad a play. At least you were thinking of ways to win the pot given your read of the situation, which can never be a bad thing.

Coilean,


Given skp's description of the BB, it seems very unlikely that the BB would ever reraise.


-Dan

Hey, nice to see you post.


He would actually be representing KQ tho...


Nic

Good point - I had misread skp's position and thought he was acting immediately after the BB.


If they've called one already I don't really like the raise anymore since the K's will pay two but on the installment plan so they definately won't fold if they called the first one(unless BB re-raises, which isn't likely to happen given the description).

Assuming you had 98 utg - my first post is a little screwy since I had you utg and the pot @ 310 when it got to you, but if my numbers are correct, if the pot is anywhere over 220, then it becomes profitable to raise - IF all the assumptions are true. Since there probably are some cases where you might run into KQ and might have a fool w/ a gut shot call the 40 anyway, I'd think 250+ pots would probably be sufficient to start seeing a profit.

Thanks for taking the time to do the calculations. That kind of nitty grittty math was never my strong suit.


I agree with all your comments, btw.


I also agree with Daniel's comment below that I probably misread the bb's ability to 3 bet me - he wasn't one to go out on a limb very often.


Last night, I had another hand where similar principles seemed to come into play. Again, I am not very sure if I made the proper play.


The game itself was a little tougher than usual but my 3 opponents in this hand were all loose players.


I am in the bb with 33. Two middle position limpers and the sb raises. We all call. 4 way action. $80 pot.


Flop: 764 rainbow


sb bets. I raise.


The other two coldcall (groan). sb 3 bets. We all call. $200 pot.


Turn: 3


sb bets. I call. The other two fold. $240 pot.


River: J


She bets. I raise. She pays off. I win a $320 pot.


The flop raise was made because:


a. sb could be betting overcards


b. If she has an overpair, I stand a better chance of having 6 outs if I raise the flop.


My thinking now is that my initial raise on the flop is probably good but my call of the 3 bet isn't because hitting either a 3 or a 5 could have landed me in a world of hurt.


Any comments on this hand?

Interesting hand - prolly would get more feedback under a new thread.

Given the SB is loose preflop, I think you have a legitimate raise on the flop. For the more normal opponents in my 10-20 game, a raise out of the blinds preflop means a big pair 80% of the time, so I would just fold on the flop against them.


After the 3 bet you are getting 17:1 to call, so you are nearly getting odds to spike a 3 even if the 5 is no good for you -- although I would think the 5 has a better chance of being good if you hit it than the 3 (you would think the cold callers are more likely to have a 5 than an 8 ). While it might be a mistake to call the 3rd bet (since you may have to fold after putting more money in when you hit), it's probably something less than a 0.5 small bet mistake in overall EV because of the big pot and your high implied odds (you won't contine on the turn unless you hit). I guess there is potential for it to become a bigger mistake if one of the cold callers comes to life and makes it 4 bets.


You have to love it after the cold callers fold the turn and the river blanks. Show me the money!