Tough turn decision

6-12 at the Mirage. Posting it here because this hand played like a middle limit hand, and I am looking for feedback from that perspective.


All fold to me and I raise in middle position with KQo. All fold to the BB. BB calls.


I have shown down nothing but premium hands all night, and most of those hands were against the BB. BB has been playing a bit loose, but has a good idea of what is needed to win a given hand, she is not going to draw to a loser. She is also very aggressive with her more powerful hands, usually in the form of a check raise. One of the dealers expressed surprise about the BB being in the game because she is a regular in the 20-40 game. She is a bit on tilt at the moment.


Flop:


8s-8c-10h


Check, bet call.


Turn


[8s-8c-10h] 7s


BB surprises me by betting out. In my head I run through the following thoughts:


1. BB does not have an 8 or a straight. She would check raise both of those, especially against me since she is certain I will bet.

2. BB has me on either an overpair or 2 large overcards.

3. BB would lay down a pair of 10’s if she was convinced I had an overpair

4. This reeks of either 10’s hoping I have to fold, or a semibluff with some sort of spade and/or straight draw.


Because of these thoughts, I raised. She reluctantly calls.


River:


[8s-8c-10h-7s] 3h


Checked to me, I bet, she thinks and mucks.


This is the first time I have ever attempted a naked bluff raise on the turn, so I am wondering if my thought process was right and this was a good play, or if I got lucky. All thoughts appreciated.


Thanks

Was the lady's name Tu? (Diminutive but very feity Asian woman)

I don't think there's any need for this kind of play, if it's Tu you are playing against she has probably picked up a flush and/or straight draw on the turn in which case she has a lots of outs to beat you if you are not beat already. Tu might even 3 bet you here with only a draw - now what are you going to do?

You say she is a little on tilt - that makes this kind of play even more risky as there's more chance now that she'll be desperate enough to call you down with almost nothing.

In fact you most likely caught her with something like a semi bluff in which case you made a big swing play to win the pot.

It's this kind of play that creates huge swings at the medium limits and can open the door for tilt if not executed perfectly.

(at least it would do for me anyway)

If you look at the size of the pot - small and what you have - squat then this play is probably not worthwhile in the long run.

Don't know her name, but she was tall, slender and asian, approximately mid 30's. She kept getting up to smoke about every 25 minutes. Very personable as well.

Players I don't like to bluff against:


people who are playing in a limit lower than they normally play


Situations I don't like bluffing:


a coordinated board with straight and flush draws with another card coming and I have nothing to show down.


She's not going to fold a straight or flush draw on the turn, so you are risking three bets (two turn bets and a river bet) to win a tiny pot

Its not tu. I think I know the womoan your referring to. She plays 30-60 at the bellagio sometimes 20-40 at mirage. The smoking thing is dead giveaway. She smokes alot. If its who i'm thinking of she is a very solid player and I doubt she was on tilt. She gives off that impression but its usaully becuase she's thinking about when to go run and smoke. I could be wrong though. Sounds alot like her tall, personable. Anyway this isn't important.


As far as the hand. Your committing too much money with zilch. She's either got a good draw or got you beat let it go.

BB plays way too predictably if your thinking about her is correct. Good read and nice play.

Thanks for the feedback everyone......


Both the above things you listed were reasons I DID bluff, maybe that was a mistake. Against most regulars at the 6-12 game I wouldn't dream of making this play because they wouldn't lay down any pair. But against her, I was confident she could lay down 10's (top pair) if convinced I had an overpair. In addition, if she was on a draw (lets pretend a flush draw and a gutshot with QJs) I am a substantial favorite since she cannot call without hitting one of her 12 outs. In fact, this is a case where I could end up bluffing with the best hand. Also, isn't something like this easier to pull off with a small pot, heads up than with a big pot multiway?


To be honest, I am not sure about this situation. As I said this is the first time I have tried something this with nothing on the turn, but I routinely (once a session) see a situation where I feel it is the correct play. Do any of you make plays like this based solely on your read? It sure seems like a correct play according to the FTOP and I have a fair amount of confidence in my hand reading skills. By no means am I suggesting it should be a frequent play, but isn't it one that you want in your arsenal?


Thanks

I think there is nothing wrong with your play, as long as your read is correct. Really all you did here was make a well timed but high risk/low reward semibluff, which might prove costly in the long run if your read is less accurate or your opponent less predictable. Just be careful of thinking all your opponents are predictable enough to be pushed around this easily. To think otherwise might bring on a bankroll threatening case of Fancy Play Syndrome.