AK suited on the button

Thanks to those who responded to my post yesterday ("54 suited").


Here is a hand which I played badly, but I don't know what my worst mistake was. It's a 10-20 game that has been generally loose, although four of the ten players at the table are rocks. It is folded to a player in middle position, Tony, who opens with a raise. The next two players cold-call $20, and then it is three-bet by one of the rocks, who is in the cutoff. I am on the button with ace-king of hearts, and I call $30 cold. The blinds fold and Tony caps it at $40. Everyone calls. Five of us see the flop; there are 21 bets ($212) in the pot. Before the flop is dealt, Tony checks blind. (Tony is a smart guy, but likes to play a bit wildly. His checking blind after capping it was partly a joke.)


The flop comes 2-3-4 rainbow, with none of my suit. Another player checks, and Paul (sitting two seats to my right) bets out. The rock in the cutoff raises. I pause a few seconds to think. I have a gutshot straight draw and the two highest overcards. It's unlikely the flop hit anyone, but there must be at least one pocket pair out there, and if someone has aces or kings then I'm drawing very slim. On the other hand the pot is huge, and the other players could be holding QQ or JJ, or conceivably something worse. Therefore I three-bet. Tony caps it, Paul throws in the $30 to call, the rock folds, and I call. Now the pot is 35 bets, with three of us still in.


The turn card is the king of spades, giving me top pair top kicker. There is also now a spade draw. (The board is 2c-3s-4d-Ks.) Tony bets out and Paul raises. Paul is a regular player who frequently goes on tilt and turns into a maniac. When he's on tilt he bluff-raises whenever he can. Unfortunately, I'm not sure at this moment whether or not he's on tilt. I know in my heart of hearts that even though I have top pair I must fold because I'm against KK or AA (or both). However, I call the $40 cold. Tony promptly three-bets and Paul caps it. *Now* I fold.


Results are immediately below.

The river is the 5 of clubs. (Final board is 2c-3s-4d-Ks-5c.) Tony bets and Paul calls. Tony shows AA for a straight, and Paul mucks without showing. If I had stayed in, I would have split that huge pot with Tony. I was sorely tempted to ask to see Paul's hand, but I restrained myself because it's rude. When I folded on the turn I figured that one of my opponents almost certainly held KK, the other AA. But I think that if Paul really did hold KK (top set on the turn) then he would have been jumping up and down and cursing to have lost on the river like that to a straight (this is based on my prior knowledge of Paul). Since he didn't have an ace, I guess his most likely hand was QQ. But then his capping it on the turn was very peculiar. Perhaps he had a spade draw, but then his play pre-flop and on the flop made no sense. He might also have had a smaller set, such as 44.


If I had called the last $40 on the turn, I would have split that huge pot with Tony. Should I have called? If Paul really did have QQ or a spade draw, then on the turn I had two outs to win the whole pot (the remaining kings) and four outs to split the pot. If Paul held KK, then I only had the four outs to split.


So what was my worst play in that hand? (a) Three-betting on the flop; (b) Calling two bets cold on the turn; or (c) Folding for the *additional* two bets cold on the turn?

I don't think I like the raise on the flop, given all the preflop aggression. Someone probably holds an overpair, so your chances of getting a free card are close to nil, eliminating the best reason to make this raise IMO.


The pot is laying you 27:1 to make the second call on the turn. If you figure you are against AA, you have 2 outs to win and 4 "half" outs to chop, effectively 4 outs total. With a nearly 1:10 chance to hit, this should be an easy call after you make the first call. Even if you make the somewhat unlikely assumption someone holds the two case kings, your effective pot odds of 1:21 to chop are good enough to make to make a call when you are being laid 27:1. You kind of make the worst possible mistake on the turn here, by calling the first two bets and then folding for the second two. If you know you are going to fold for more action, folding for the first raise is the better play, although I would find that hard to do with 20 BB at stake and the nut pair with a gutshot.

I think you have to cap it pre-flop with this hand on the button, especially if you think there is a good chance that Tony will cap it. You'll be paying the same amount, but the whole dynamic of the hand will change. If you had capped pre-flop the rock may not have raised the flop, or it could even get checked to you (if it did, I would check and see the turn). Position is so important with a non-pair hand in a big pot that you really need to show strength pre-flop to give you a better chance of winning the hand later.

Preflop I would cap the betting - this may give my hand some added value after the flop - if I have a tight image it might help me beat a better hand/get a free card that helps me win the pot.

On the flop the raise is unwarrented, nobody with any kind of hand/draw is going out and you are probably/certainly beat.

Nice to play passive here, you are drawing and getting a good price but you don't have a NUT draw in any way, you might be drawing very slim too so why cut your odds and encourage a raising war. Not every decision comes down to raise or fold even though it sounds tough to say so.

On the turn folding for the first 2 bets is an option as long as you can make an accurate read that you are slaughtered and face a possible cap. Even now it's a tricky fold as you still have a straight draw.

If there is a very small chance you have the best hand - any chance at all then crying calls are in order.

If there is a fair to decent chance that you are good then 3 betting here is good play to punish these guys as you have hit your draw and maybe they are out of line.

I think it's the worst possible play to call 2 bets on the turn then fold, especially in such a large pot against opponents who might be making some kind of play.

BTF I would either cap or fold. I think it's pretty close either

way. Arguments for calling are your position. There are strong

reasons to not even get involved with the hand to begin with.

A rock has made it three bets. What can he have? You are either

drawing real thin or you have the same hand. If you have a short

bankroll and want to lower your flucuations a fold is clearly in

order. As it turns out you were against AA and on the flop were

in deep trouble.


On the flop I think you have a clear fold. You have absolutely

nothing. You have no backdoor flush draw and you have a gut shot

to the stupid end of the straight. Overcards are worthless with

all the action on the flop and BTF.


Bruce

Imo, I think a muck preflop is the best way to go. When a "rock" 3 bets preflop I don't like my hand anymore even AKs. Sure the suited plays a little better multi way but not enought to get involved. 3 better's either got you dominated with AA,KK. Or has QQ's. If he is a "rock" he might not reraise JJ's or AK. So the only hand your not dominated against is QQ's. And with the other players in there your aces and kings may be tied up.

But what if the flop was Ace high, then our Hero would be better off smoothcalling and letting Tony cap it preflop (of course, at this point, we don't know that Tony has AA).


In other words, IMO, smoothcalling is the better play with a hand like AKs if you know that the action is going to get capped anyway.


As for the preflop call, it's limit poker. I have never thrown away AKs before the flop. Heck even against KK, you have 3 outs - which is effectively 9 outs on the flop. But the main reason you call is that even Rocks don't have to have AA or KK to 3 bet. If you find the odd fella who can only 3 bet with AA, then you have a fold. I have yet to meet that fella.

How do you go from 3 outs to nine out against k's on the flop. And you probaby wouldn't even have 3 because someelse in this hand is very likley to have an ace.


And yes there are many "rocks" that will only reraise with AA,KK,QQ. And even if he did raise with a few others there are none that you beat. You'd be tied with AK. And with the other players your not gonna win unimproved.


Would you muck AK off before the flop in this spot? Have you ever mucked AK off before the flop? If you would or you have the suited is not that much more important. You are not getting odds to draw so being suited shouldn't make much different in this spot. I know many will not agree with me. But I think in this spot you have no reason to get involved with a hand that may be dominated when you have to call not 2 bets but 3 bets from a "rock". IMO

"How do you go from 3 outs to nine outs against k's on the flop."


You get 3 cards on the flop. I know...not entirely accurate but I said that just to emphasize a point i.e. you stand a 20% chance of outflopping him. Anyway, it was probably not an appropriate comment.


If you are up against a rock who will only 3 bet preflop with AA,KK, and QQ, there are 6 available combos of QQ and 3 available combos of AA/KK respectively that he could have. If an Ace or King flops (and you will generally fold on the flop if one doesn't), then it makes it that much more likely that he started with QQ.


In limit poker, I don't see calling with AKs as ever being a big error - perhaps folding isn't either - but I play pretty tight as it is and I am simply not folding AKs if the decision is close (which I say it is even if you were to accept that the rock has such tight 3 betting requirements).


Also, I think that you underestimate the importance of being suited. You want to be suited not solely because you can make a flush but also because it allows you to win in ways that would not be possible if you were unsuited i.e. it allows semi-bluffing, it allows you to catch a pair of Aces on the river when you flop a flush draw etc.


BTW, I have also never mucked AK off before the flop in limit poker mainly because I simply have not seen a player who plays as tight as you describe. Check that. I suppose I can think of a couple of players in my casino who fall into that category. I suppose I have never held AK when they happened to get a chance to 3 bet preflop. Who knows. Anyway, I can't ever remember folding AK. But I will grant you that the case for folding is stonger when your AK is offsuit. Being suited is huge for the reasons given above.

I agree its not a big error if it is one at all. Just imo there's no reason to get invloved in this spot where your cards are probably tied up and up against a hnad that might have you dominated. It can be a big chip burner on a hand that even if you hit the A or K it might not be good, and even if it is will not necessarily win. I guees there will some times when playing it that you will win some big pots to make up for the chips you burn when it doesn't win. Maybe. By the way this is only with a real "rock".


Being suited can be important for semi-bluffing reasons. Not as important as your giving it though. In a pot this size you will not be able to bluff. Your goin to have to make a hand to win.

"But what if the flop was Ace high, then our Hero would be better off smoothcalling and letting Tony cap it preflop"


Please elaborate on this, IMO the opposite should be true. I would always want to be the aggressor in the hand, even if I knew the flop was going to include a King or an Ace (most of the time it won't).


"In other words, IMO, smoothcalling is the better play with a hand like AKs if you know that the action is going to get capped anyway."


Why is calling 3 cold better than capping? You aren't really disguising your hand, since the hands that you would call 3 cold and cap with against a tight 3-betting rock should be about identical. It seems like you need to use your positional advantage in this situation.

I agree that being suited is important, even if you think it will only be 3-way action. I think that the decision between folding, call 3 cold and raising with AK against a tight rock 3-better is very close, and being suited may make nudge it towards a cap and being unsuited may nudge it towards a fold

Thanks to everyone who responded. I agree with "Payoff" and "Coilean" that on the turn I made the worst possible play by calling for two big bets and then folding for two more. When I posted this hand I had been hoping that someone would find a way to justify that play, but the math set out by Coilean is irrefutable.


As for preflop, I think my smooth-call was not too bad. Firstly, I disagree strongly with those who suggested a fold here. As skp points out, this is limit poker after all. Maybe if I had been 95% certain that someone held AA, a fold would have been in order but with that action the raisers could easily have held, say, TT and AQs. Based on my knowledge at the time of my preflop decision, the probability was perhaps 40% that someone held AA; that's why I have to at least call. The decision between calling and raising is more debatable. My thinking at the time was that I should smooth-call to disguise my hand (which I see now makes no sense) and also to increase the probability slightly that one or both of the blinds would call - in other words I was thinking that if I did make a flush then I wanted as many players in as possible. Moreover, it was by no means certain that someone else would cap it if I did not. Plus, my image at the table was not so tight that I would get a free card from everybody by capping it.


On the flop, just about everyone suggested either a call or fold instead of my raise. I agree that my raise was wrong, however I still think it's close between a raise and a call. Remember that Tony capped it preflop and then checked blind on the flop. What if he held AK? Then when I three-bet it on the flop he has to fold, whereas he would probably call for only two bets.


Thanks again for all the comments.

If you know an Ace or King is going to hit the flop, you want there to be a bet ahead of you so that you can raise either for value or to knock out the competition depending on the situation. That can best be achieved by smoothcalling.


"Why is calling 3 cold better than capping? You aren't really disguising your hand, since the hands that you would call 3 cold and cap with against a tight 3-betting rock should be about

identical. It seems like you need to use your positional advantage in this situation."


While the first part of what you ay may be true, you still stand a much better chance of having someone else bet the flop when you have just called the flop (even if it is for 3 bets cold). That will allow you to make better use of your positional advantage.