turn a set and never raise?

15-30 game. Pretty tight/aggressive, but not that tricky. One fast player in the SB, ABC player in the BB. Cutoff is the oh, so very live one.

Cutoff open raises. I look down to pocket nines on the button and three bet. Cutoff could have anything, based on past history, but he seems to be playing a little tighter today. Still could have anything, though.

SB wavers a little and smooth calls. BB mucks.


Before the flop is shown, cutoff says to me: "I check, you check?" flop comes down A 3 5 with two hearts. SB checks, cutoff checks, and I check.


turn is an off suit nine. SB bets, cutoff raises!! Board is

A-3-5-9. I smooth call. SB takes a looooong time and finally calls. River is 10h. SB checks, cutoff bets. I hesitate and call (looking for the overcall), and SB calls.


Reasons for my calls.


Turn: I figure the cutoff's raise was either two pair or a big ace. Either way he was hurting. If I raise here, I probably lose the SB, and any action the cutoff will give me on the river. A set of aces was a possibility, but not the reason for my smooth call here.


River: when the third heart hits, I still figure to have the best hand. However, raising the cutoff cuts off any chance I have of a SB call unless I'm beat. Also, Ace-rag suited is a hand cutoff would have open raised with, so there is the small chance he hit runner runner.


comments?

results will follow.

Board was A-3-5-9-10 with three hearts. Cutoff bet, I called, SB called.


Cutoff showed A-Q suited (not hearts) and SB showed the same. I raked in a big one.

Without looking at the results i think you played fine and your reasoning is sound.

I probably 3 bet the live one in the cut-off preflop with my 99.


On the flop, since it's 3 way, I would probably have bet once they checked although I would be kind of wondering "WTF?...does he have AA?" after the live one checks given that he has only 2 opponents. In other words, I might bet the flop to reduce the competition to one opponent and then consider checking the turn depending on my read of the live one (although I would usually just bet out and then fold if checkraised).


On the turn, I would raise. Given the way the action went down, it is extremely unlikely that anyone with a big Ace will fold to a raise. If they did, you could literally raise 4 out of 5 times on the turn and expect to pick up the pot. That is, you could call preflop raises with 72 offsuit, put in a raise on the turn and win the pot.


As we all know, it doesn't quite work that way becaue you will usually be called. So, when you have the goods, you should raise and expect to be called.


Now, if they had abolutely nothing, they would fold and your raise may cost you 1 big bet that you may have gained with the live one bluffing again on the river. But in general, there is more to be made by raising the turn than there is to slowplay it in the fear that you will lose your customers.

I'm a little unsure about what happened just before the flop. Did the cutoff check dark, or did he just want to check the hand down and forgot the SB was still in? Did this have something to do with why you didn't bet the flop?


Anyway, I think you should usually bet this flop. If you get check raised, it's usually a pretty easy laydown, since most players would be pretty afraid of an ace high flop against a preflop 3 bettor. If you get a caller on the flop, I would usually check the turn to both induce a river bluff and avoid a slowplayed strong hand -- the free card is not as dangerous since there is a decent chance you are not winning after you get called (he could easily have an ace and be afraid his kicker is no good).


After you spike the 9 on the turn, I think you should probably reraise. For one thing, your call might actually look more scary to the SB than a raise, since you should usually reraise to isolate the live one if you are going to continue in this spot with any one pair hand; ergo, he might be more afraid you have a better than one pair hand if you smoothcall than if you reraise. For another thing, you are forgoing the chance to win a really large pot as they should doubt that you have much of a hand (except maybe a slowplayed set of aces). Finally, anyone who was making a move with hands worse than a big ace is unlikely to pay another bet regardless of whether you raise or call.


Given the turn action so far, at least one of these guys was probably hoping to check raise on the flop since that 9 shouldn't have helped either of them (especially with you holding two of the other 9's), so they could have big aces, sets, or flush draws. If this is the case, the only way you lose anyone by raising is if the SB has a big ace and is willing to lay it down; even so, your reraise should look a little fishy to him and he could easily convince himself to continue against your attempt to "isolate" the live one. Even if the SB folds to your reraise and would have called the single raise, you probably only lost one bet at worst, but you might have missed a chance to make up to 4 more bets.


Since the flush makes it on the river, going for the overcall is probably OK, although I might still try a raise (you are very unlikely to get reraised unless someone actually made the flush). If the flush hadn't come however, I would always raise. You can only gain from those times the SB calls your raise, since the live one's call will make up for those times the SB folds -- this is virtually a freeroll except for the small chance you are beat by AA.


Notice that if you had held AK on the turn (and for some reason had checked the flop), you probably would have played it in a way as to make more money than you did with your set. This should bother you.