Stop the leaks II

9-18 game, I am in mid position with AKo.


One caller as it gets to me, I raise. Folded around to the BB who seems to be a good player, a lot of raising when he's in the pot. Seems to bluff a bit as well. BB calls and the early limper calls.


Flop comes A37 - no flush draws that I remember. BB bets (a routine play for him to bet into the pre-flop raiser). Early player calls, I raise, BB re-raises. Early player folds and I call.


Turn comes K - still no flush possibilities. BB checks, I bet, BB raises. I call. Only now am I beginning to sense I am in trouble...


River comes a rag of no consequence. BB bets, I call.


Did I lose too much to his set of threes?


Thanks

Generally when someone 3 bets a pre-flop raiser out of position with an ace on board (assuming he respects your raises), it might be a sign of trouble. Maybe ace/big, probably two pair, but maybe a flopped set. When the king comes giving you top two, it's hard to check. When (check) raised, it's decision time. Against some players, it's an easy fold. Others it's very close. Unfortunately it comes down to knowing your opponent. I'm not trying to cop out, but the answer is - It depends.

I don't think you lost "too much." Unless you know this player well and what kinds of hands he's willing to play this way, you a have an awful tough lay-down. As you said, this player "raises alot." Not a hand worth obsessing about, see Coilean's comments in Stop the Leaks I.


Mike

Look at it this way. The 3-bet on the flop signifies something good. Two pair or a set. I would say A-big is unlikely given your preflop and flop raises.


Suddenly he checks the turn. Why? It looks like he has read you perfectly (also something to think about). If he has two pair, he is behind and knows it and wants to finish it cheaply. If he has a set, then he knows he has you hooked, and wants to extract the maximum. The situation is one where you are either way ahead or way behind. Often, in these situations, a passive play is appropriate. Consider checking behind him. You don't worry about a free card, since he only has 2 if he's behind, and you may be the one needing it. Granted, you may lose a bet when you are ahead. This is not guaranteed, however. If he is sure of his read, he may fold on the turn or river. Checking the turn will probably get a bet out of him on the river, so it may balance. You will save a bet when behind, however.


On the whole, it probably isn't a big decision EV-wise. But you may as well start to train them to not check-raise against you.


Eric

If BB is not overly tricky or aggressive (but it sounds like he might be from your description), I think you should sometimes lay this down on the flop after you get 3 bet. If an ace on a flop with no draws (except the double gutshot 54, in this case) doesn't scare him against a preflop raiser, then you are the one who should be scared. If you figure he can only have a small set, two pair, or AK, you are going to pay 2.5 more big bets to win half the pot only a fraction of the time. I would only "sometimes" fold on the flop for the standard reason that you don't want an observant opponent to start playing back at you more frequently, and I would occassionally want to see if he slows down on the turn or river; it's a "frequency thing" as Tommy would say. Those times you do fold on the flop here, do it quickly and mutter something about "damn kings" /images/wink.gif.


You got trapped by "improving" on the turn, since it is otherwise pretty easy to get away from your hand against all but the most aggressive opponents once check raised. If BB can only have AK AA 33 77, your EV for calling down the turn check raise (pot has 19.5 small bets before you call) is:

BB has AK (4 ways), EV = +12.8BB/2 - 2BB = +4.4BB

BB has AA (1 way), EV = -2BB

BB has 33 or 77 (6 ways), EV = 40/44(-2BB) + 4/44(+12.8BB - 2BB) = -0.84BB

So the overall EV is:

4/11(+4.4BB) + 1/11(-2BB) + 6/11(-0.84BB) = +0.96BB


Obviously, the EV only gets better if BB can also have hands that you are beating, such as AQ A7 A3 37s. So it is pretty much always correct to call down the turn check raise, unless you think BB can have only a small set -- maybe you are certain he would reraise preflop with AK or AA, but wouldn't play A7s or A3s at all. Remember, the possibility to split is where all your +EV comes from if you don't think he would overplay any hands weaker than yours.


From your description of the guy, it sounds like calling down is the right play, as I bet he would call preflop with A7s A3s AQ AJs as well as 33 77. Your failure to 4 bet the flop might convince the aggressive BB that you don't have AA or AK, causing him to overplay aces up after the king comes on the turn.


If you think you have major leaks, I would worry less about hands like this where your play is probably correct, and worry more about how often you are paying off when it is more obvious that you are beat or drawing thin.

"Did I lose too much to his set of threes?"


No, because he would have likely played two-pair the same way.