Straight to Hell

[naphand]

This hand happened a few days ago, but is one I have been wondering about.

This is a new table, first orbit, no reads as all players are unknowns. Should I raise the Turn here?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Naphand bets</font>, BB calls, MP folds, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">Naphand 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">CO caps</font>, Naphand calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Naphand checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Naphand calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Naphand checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Naphand calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 13.50 BB, between CO and Naphand.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Naphand shows Ah Ad (two pair, aces and fours).
CO shows Ac 7c (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: Naphand wins 13.50 BB. </font>

My thinking on the Flop was he could well be betting an OESD. A flopped straight or set was more likely to be slow-played and raised on the Turn.

I 3-bet the flop and it's capped and the Turn brings the 4-card straight and he bets. I'm thinking, if he is betting the OESD, that may well be the top card he is holding. I hesitated for a moment, considering a raise, but just went for a call-down against this unknown.

Does anyone think a raise is justified here? or am I likely to get burned... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[PassiveCaller]

I think putting him on that 7 is a solid assessment but it being the first orbit around the table and with no solid read of what's going on here I think you just call this down.

[grinin]

Still learning here but I'll take a shot.

I agree the flopped set or straight would be more likely slow played. So, given unknown CO's betting pattern the question is:

What percentage of the time does an unknown CO hold a 7 vs a 3. In the 1/2 game you are playing I am not surprised to see CO hold A7 suited or not, 78 suited or A3 suited. Discounting the 78 hand you are a 4/1 favorite.

So it seems a bet is in order, but should it be a raise on the turn?

[grinin]

I also would have called down a few days ago and probably would have in this situation (in the heat of the moment). However I am trying to get in more value bets.

[PassiveCaller]

limper before the raise in a partypoker 1-2 game with no reads. What does this mean? He could have nearly anything.
They play all sorts of crap in that game.

If he had some sort of a read this situation changes.

[naphand]

I think I was still digesting the action when the Turn came, and when he bet out again after my check I suddenly realised he was very possibly on a 7. A CR followed by a 3-bet might be a touch uncomfortable, so I now think bet and call a raise would certainly be better than check/call. Giving a free card to a draw is wrong, and I allowed that to happen (nearly).

Trouble is how to differentiate, given that he capped the OESD, I think he would raise this too, as an improved hand. On the other hand I now have insurance in terms of a possible split pot, so the raise is not hurting me too much even if he is on 78 or a 3.

My selective memory erased my check/call and replaced it with a simple call. Bet and call a raise.

[fyodor]

I think call down mode is fine here. Your assesment of the hand was bang on but what happens if you raise the turn and he 3 bets? He may very well do this with TPTK. He probably thinks he's ahead. Now you may start believing he has a set or a straight.

Just reading some Cloutier and he quotes Caro on entering a pot with AA where there are already a lot of guys in like this pot. You have 3 limpers plus the BB behind you. A raise is not going to chase anyone. It makes the pot bigger but that just makes it more likely anyone with any piece will stick around. They are not saying it is wrong to raise AA PF - that's never wrong - but just calling is an option in this sceneraio.

[naphand]

Exactly. I think with some players this is auto to bet the Turn, I was just wondering if I erred too far on the side of caution due to the lack of any read.

This is a judgement of what typically gets slow-played, and how many times I see a 3 -vs- the split pots/MHIG. My thinking is that it may be slightly in my favour, and a bet/call-a-raise is preferable.

Given that my brain's processing capacity only churned out a suggestion after the Turn check and bet, I had the option to CR. But a CR is a different animal, or does it really matter? If my read is he has a 7, then I think his bet is expected and I actually have a choice here.

I still think I prefer bet/call-a-raise. I am definitely going to SD, and paying 3-bets on the Turn would not feel too good when I am behind and possibly negates (?) the advantage I get by getting in one more bet when he is still drawing. I don't think many at Party $1/$2 will 3-bet this Turn without the straight, though some might raise a single bet with TP/draw on the Turn. Perhaps that is my answer.