Question regarding SH variance and downswings - advice sought

[Surfbullet]

Hey all,

Here's the question - I've heard big swings are how SH goes - but are these figures anything for me to worry about?
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Started okay at SH, then almost immedaitely (500 hands) slipped into a -187 BB downswing, lasting a few thousand hands (moved down in limits to fix BR)

BR fixed - back up to SH, make it back up to being even. Go on a 115 BB upswing over 2.5k hands

Start next downswing... - 155BBs over 2.5k hands.

To clarify, I'm not tilting or getting emotional, and I've done my best to play tight, solid poker. I realize there are definitely leaks in my game (likely volkswagon-sized) but I'm doing my best to learn SH and fix what needs to be fixed.
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Back to the question - is this type of HUGE up-and-down swings the way most SH games go? If so, that's great, because I won't start tinkering with things to try and reduce my variance. This is based on about 12-13k full table hands and 7k-8k shorthanded.

I currently have a win rate of 2.58 BB/hr over ~20,000 hands, including full table - my SH game is currently -1 BB/hr because of the small sample and current downswing... my full table stats were 3-4 BB/hr.

NB: this is not bb/100, I don't have PT so use spreadsheets - no direct correlation to BB/100 as 1 hand could take an hour theoretically...I use it as a personal, relative indicator of my own earnings so there is no reason to "inflate" or "brag" about the number because it has no comparative value to BB/100)

The moment of truth - its possible I'm not yet ready for SH and I am a -1BB/hr SH player... if so, what's the best way to adapt my game? I've been reading heaps of old threads on this forum (VERY helpful) but are there exercises etc (raise or fold?) that would help get into SH, or just stick to full table until I've got like 50k hands under my belt?

Thanks for the input,

Dan

[naphand]

Just a side-point surf. BB/100 is a far more reliable indicator of your play than BB/hr.

BB/hr is a way of measuring our own personal pay-scale. BB/100 is the only way to make accurate comparisons across different samples. If you are using spreadsheets then calculating BB/100 should be very easy, you have the number of hands and you have the $ won/lost.

=sum(Ax:Ay)/countA(Ax:Ay)

where A is your $ won/lost per hand column, x is the first row of your data and y the last.

BB/100 allows you to accurately compare yourt profitability in different games and sites, where the speed of play can obviously vary considerably from 70-120 hands/hr per table. Also ignores the effect of multi-tabling (but does allow a direct comparison of the effect of introducing, say, one more table, on our overall play).

[Surfbullet]

First off, I just noticed that grinin's post is along the same lines - I apologize for the redundancy.


One other thing - I definitely haven't been running well the past day or 2(or 3). I've gotten AA/QQ AKs AK etc more than my share of times but they have not been holding up anywhere near their share.

I accept bad beats because they mean I'm at the right table - they rarely bother me, I've done my best to take Joe Tall's advice (http://www.riveredagain.com/articles.htm#Tall_Enjoy_a_Bad_Beat) to heart.
I say "nice hand" and possibly compliment him/her on some aspect of the play that I think was good (nice river c/r etc).

However, it can begin to get frustrating when it feels like everyone who tries is drawing out on me...
It's clearly not the case but when suckouts happen more than their share it makes me start to wonder if I'm doing something wrong, not giving them enough chances to fold, etc.

This makes not doing well all the more frustrating because it's easy to see how soft these games should be when guys chase to the river with J3o with no pair or bottom pair.

Ahem. /images/graemlins/cool.gif Thanks for the input.

Dan

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a side-point surf. BB/100 is a far more reliable indicator of your play than BB/hr.

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I've heard that BB/100 is more accurate and useful...
I'd love to be calculating it but at this point I'm on PokerRoom and they have terrible(nonexistent) tracking systems - I can't track # of hands so I record beginning and ending times of each table and + or - BBs. I'll be back home from school soon and then I can get pokertracker and move to party or paradise and start keeping good records.

I'm technically citing BBs/hr/table, usually 3-4 tables at a time, though this shouldn't matter overmuch.

Thanks,

Dan

[Joe Tall]

However, it can begin to get frustrating when it feels like everyone who tries is drawing out on me...

Next time someone draws out on you online, head over to this link: http://www.twodimes.net/poker/ and plug in the hands/board. You'll feel a lot better knowing how much a favorite you were and how often you'll drag that pot versus such an opponent.

I also recommend reading, "Zen and the Art of Poker" by Phillips.

Hope things run well for you.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]

I also recommend reading, "Zen and the Art of Poker" by Phillips.


[/ QUOTE ]

Great book, I second that recommendation as well. Thanks for bringing this book up I am going to have to take it out for a reread the next time things aren't going well.

[Surfbullet]

Thanks for the advice, I'll be sure to pick up "Zen" as soon as I get home.

Your article on riveredagain.com is great as well - it really helped me lose the "I've folded for an hour and now I've got AA so i DESERVE this pot" mentality. The hardest point for me now is accepting the losses when I don't know if I'm actually playing well enough to be a winner at SH. Time to post more hands!

Dan

[fyodor]

AA, KK etc will make money. If they are not it just an anomaly in a small sample.

I now have 8000 hands in pokertracker. Very small sample. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs are all top of the moneymaking list as they should be. AQs though which should be at least in the middle somewhere is my biggest loser. I know that it will turn around though. We're only talking 27 hands right now. When it hits 100 and I'm still losing with it I'll start to worry.