Call for Pot size?

I haven't posted here an enormous number of times, but those times I do, it usually involves whether or not to call when I think I'm beat. Well, here's another situation.


I'm playing in the loosest of Loose 9 - 18 holdem games at Commerce. Very loose. AT LEAST 6 players per flop, usually 7 or 8. Loose. The guy to my immediate right is about the only decent player at the table, but he has an incredible tell. He always raises one of 2 ways. 1 way is the "I have great cards", and he throws his chips into the pot. The other way is the "I want to get the button, get the blinds out/I'm just betting position" when he stacks his chips. For about 2 hours I've noticed this pattern on his pre-flop raising. For example, he raised with K2s in the cutoff with his "position raise", and never raised with anything less than AQs (that I saw) with his "good cards" raise.


He's in the cutoff on this hand, and raises his "position raise" raise. I have ATd on the button. If I call, both blinds will call, and 7 will see the flop (the blinds haven't laid a hand down since FDR had fireside chats).


Because I sense some serious weakness with the preflop raiser, and because I have the button, I decide to 3bet. If you view this as incredibly horrible or doubt my read on the player, just pretend for a while that he limped and I raised on the button with ATd.


Well, my 3 bet didn't eliminate anybody, it just build a big ol' pot. 7 of us see the flop of


Qc 9h 3d.


I missed. Fortunately, the table was in the "check to the raiser" mode, so I see a free turn card, which is the beautiful Jd.


Board = Q J 9 3 with two diamonds.


I am open ended with the nut flush draw.


Early position bet, call, middle position raises, and all fold to me.


This is middle positions's first hand. He is an off duty dealer, and he couldn't get his chips into the pot fast enough. I sincerely thought he had KT or T8, but it being his first hand, I didn't really have a read on him.


Do I

1.) Raise for value (10 outs to the nuts, but possibly 15 winning outs if any diamond, K or 8 gives me the winner)


2.) Call the 2 bets cold.


3.) Fold (please don't say this is what I should have done)


There is another option...raise to thin the field...see if I can get the first bettor or caller to lay it down incase they have an open ended draw, so I won't have to chop if an 8 comes.


In any case, I call.


The river is a black ace, all check to the turn raiser, and he bets. I fold, all fold.


Now, the question I have is should I have called the river based on the size of the pot. I rivered the top pair, but it wasn't a card I was looking for. After all mucked, the middle position player showed his cards, and they were QdTh. He had top pair with the open-ender.


Of course, if I had 3-bet the turn, I would have ended up with the pot (they would have checked to me on the river, I would have checked, and won). I just have a tough time putting 3 big bets in on the turn on a draw. If I knew that the early position players would have called the 3 bets, then I possibly would have 3-bet for value (it was about borderline, depending on if the Qd, 9d, and 3 non-diamond 8's were winners for me or not), but if 3-betting gets them out of the pot, then a raise for value is a self-defeating proposition.


Comments?


Worm

Preflop, based on my limited experience at Commerce I would call. Even 3 bet raises will *never* get someone who is already in for 1 bet out of the pot. You are creating correct odds for them to call all the way if you catch a decent, but vulnerable flop of A-9-7 or 10-7-4.


I'd do exactly what you did on both the flop and the turn. The hands you are drawing to on the turn want extra callers.


On the river, I have call. It is too easy to put the MP raiser on a hand such as Q-10, Q-K or J-10 or any pair with a diamond draw. Q-10 and Q-K would be played in exactly the same fashion. He could easily be trying to narrow down the field and protect a highly vulnerable hand which he was planning on check-raising with on the flop. On the river he is not about to stop betting. The pot size coupled with a realistic chance of holding the best hand demand a call I think.

I wish you hadn't said what the MP player had. It's too easy to make a results oriented analysis when you already know the outcome, which is less instructive for everyone. You miss the chance for everyone to honestly make the same "mistake" or "great play" you made, which is one of the best ways to guage how good or bad your play really was.


With a little over 17 big bets in the pot on the end, I think you must call for the single bet after you make top pair. As long as he bets a weaker hand more than 6% of the time here, you will show an immediate profit by calling. I consider most of my reads to have less than a 90% accuracy, so I would call a single bet on the end given better than 9:1 odds almost every time I have top pair or better, even when I read him for a better hand than mine. In this case, your situation is even better since the range of hands you can put him on includes some hands which you can beat, given all the ways he could be paired with a straight and/or flush draw on the turn.


Also note, his bet on the end isn't that terrible (although not great either) as a value play. The huge pot size could easily earn him crying calls from worse hands, given the generally low caliber of players at the table you describe. This possibility alone should give you enough doubt to call.

Gummy,


I would suggest that in the future you not post the results of the hand, because it is much harder to be objective.


With that said, it looks like you're getting 19:1 on the river (I am having to guess at how a little of the action went). IMO, this is not a good spot to make a heroic laydown. If there is a 100% chance that the guy has the goods, then you are only making a 90 cent mistake by calling (in EV terms). I think that you will win more than 1 time in 20 (or chop more than 1 time in 40), so I think a call is in order. In the absense of the guy showing you his cards, I think that it hard to know that your top pair is no good more than 95% of the time. I would have (cried and) called on the river.


-Dan

Are any of you considering the fact that there are still two players to act behind me? Does that influence your decision at all? And, you're right, I should not have stated the results ahead of time.


Worm

Clarkmeister - Thanks for the response. The one place where I have to disagree with you is with the preflop 3-bet. Sure, nobody (or, very few) players will dump for the three bets, but surely the fact that I was sure that I had the best hand and the best position makes a 3-bet worthwhile. That is, there are reasons to raise before the flop other than just to limit the field, right?


Worm

one other reason to raise is that you have an excellent multiway hand and if you make the flush you stand to win a tremendous pot. If I knew that everyone would call my threebet and would have 7 players on the flop I would raise with almost any suited A, and certainly I would raise with ATs.


Pat

I think you have to call on the River. You thought his bet on the Turn was because he made the straight, but actually he had top board pair and a straight draw. Until the Ace shows on the River, you are beat here, but you have the Nut flush draw possibility.


You need to be careful -- you looked at the Board and saw what cards he *could* have had and since he was betting, you assumed he had a straight even though it was the first hand you had really observed him on. At the Turn you were beat, but not for the reason you thought. Raising on the Turn would be a little risky - I suspect the other two players might have dropped out - but it might have saved you a bet on the River. He might have thought *YOU* had the straight! He then might have checked the River and then you would probably know that he didn't make the straight. You turn your cards over and then take the pot!

You should always call when you would've won the pot.

"I'm playing in the loosest of Loose 9 - 18 holdem games at Commerce. Very loose. AT LEAST 6 players per flop, usually 7 or 8. Loose."

-Was the game tight or loose?


"He always raises one of 2 ways. 1 way is the "I have great cards", and he throws his chips into the pot. The other way is the "I want to get the button, get the blinds out/I'm just betting position" when he stacks his chips. For about 2 hours I've noticed this pattern on his pre-flop raising."

-Good read. In my experience, most players are the opposite; they toss with weakers hands and stack carefully when they've got the goods.


"I decide to 3bet. If you view this as incredibly horrible. . ."

-I don't. I view it a a good play made for a good reason.


"I missed." Another good read.


"Board = Q J 9 3 with two diamonds."

-Better to say Board = Qc 9h 3d Jd, to show the order in which the cards came.


"Do I 1.) Raise for value"

-No. Your hand has no current value in the sense that you are on a draw. Plus you might be up against a straight that will reraise.


"Do I 2.) Call the 2 bets cold."

-That's what I would do.


"Do I 3.) Fold (please don't say this is what I should have done."

-No, this is not what you should have done. Happy?


"should I have called the river based on the size of the pot. I rivered the top pair, but it wasn't a card I was looking for."

-You've already given the game away, so rather than answering just now, I will offer this: you should have a plan based on missing, not just hitting. Anyone knows what to do if they make the nuts, but what about if they catch an Ace?

(I thank Rick Nebiolo for reminding me of this in a post a couple of weeks ago.)


[From deep's post: "You should always call when you would've won the pot."]

-Not just a funny quip. You don't have to win very often to make a river call correct in a big pot. I count (and I'm bad at counting) $315 in the pot. So you're getting 17.5:1 to call. Consider that the bettor had checked the flop and then bet when a Jack hit. If the jack was "beautiful" to you, it might have been beautiful to him in the same way, i.e., as a drawing card not as a completion of his hand, especially since he appeared to be the type who "couldn't get his chips into the pot fast enough."

Finally, somebody who said something reasonable!!


In all seriousness, in retrospect, I should have called, (almost fully expecting to lose).


I think the reason I didn't is the same reason I don't like calling a flop bet with AK when the board is J 9 6. . . I'm afraid that my card will make 2 pair for somebody else. . . with 4 people seeing the river for 2 bets apiece, I seriously doubted that 1 pair, mediocre kicker would take it.


Of course, after the winner took down the pot, people asked me what I had. . . I said the only thing I could think of . . . "pocket tens".


Andy (and others) thanks for agreeing with me regarding the preflop 3-bet. . . it's nice to know I did something right. And oh, by the way, the game was LOOSE, to answer your question. Very Loose. Not tight at all, in any way, shape or form. Loose. Which meant "lose" for me. Blech!!


Worm