QQ stuck to my fingers

Say you hold QQ in middle position. You open raise, an overaggressive and loose player (LP) three bets, and a decent player (DP) caps it. You and LP call.


You think DP would normally only cap with AA, KK, QQ or AKs but you think there's a chance of AK or even less here because DP is factoring in the fact that LP could have a variety of lesser hands, and he knows you would raise first in with most hands worth playing.


So the flop comes like 2-5-9 rainbow.


What is the best way to proceed? I usually check raise to simplify matters (i.e. usually LP will fold and DP then has to react to your show of strength), but that can just compound your problems, as you know.


This scenario unfolded three times last night for me and it went badly each time: twice DP had AA and once he had AK and spiked an ace on the river. I am wondering what you fellas do when you have a bit of doubt about the capper's hand but you know there's a good chance you are drawing to 2 outs.

I would not check - raise the flop here, unless the opponent's reaction will tell you his hand. If it does not, you make a mess.


Usually, the best play is to check and call thru the river. If you know the opponent will stop betting AK on the turn, you can fold if he bets there.


But I usually check and call, unless the action and board say I am beat - like the 3rd player sticks around and there's a raising war on an ace - high flop.


If you are sure he is playing AK, AA or KK or QQ, you can fold on the flop if an overcard appears - you are not getting your odds, as your 2 outer is not a lock. If he might also have JJ, you can also fold if a J and an A or K appears.


Good luck.


Dan Z.

Scott,


A check-call approach will usually get you to the river with effective odds of around 4:1.


A check-raise the flop and then check-call from then on will usually get you to the river with effective odds of closer to 3:1, but it will also increase your chance of winning (by knocking out one opponent--There is a tradeoff you have to make between increasing your chance of winning the pot and making your odds as attractive as possible).


Let me make the following simplyfying assumption: We can consider LP's cards random (more on this later).


If DP has AA or KK, you are going to win about 8% of the time. If DP has AK or AKs, you are going to win about 60% of the time.


Let's say that he'll cap with AA 100% of the time, KK 100%, AKs 100%, AKo 33%. Let me point out that this is a very conservative interpretation of your assumptions (and of the general situation--I know that I would play more aggressively that those %s for instance in the situation you described).


Given all of the above assumptions, you are going to win (.08*12 + .6*8) / 20 = .29


Since you are going to win about 30% of the time, you should not fold. I think that just check-calling is the best approach here. LP will usually be drawing very thin against either you or DP (this is why I felt ok about assuming that his cards were random), so I don't think it's worth it to check-raise the flop in order to knock him out; plus, with such a non scary board and a loose player, I would not be so optimistic that a check-raise will knock out LP. In general, I think that check-calling to the river is the best plan (assuming scary cards don't come out, and in those cases you'll have to reavaluate your situation).


-Dan