$20-$40HE - Missed Read

Hand reading skills separates player's level of poker abilities. My game has been progressing but here is a situation where my lack of reading the hand correctly cost me.


$20-$40HE game at Lucky Chances. I am up about four stacks and am on the button in a fairly good game.


Early limper and "Lucky"(never play with someone called Lucky?) from middle position raises. Cutoff calls, I have QJh and call, BB calls as does limper. We take the flop 5 handed with $210 in the pot.


Flop: AsKh6h


Check, check, "Lucky" bets, cutoff folds, I raise with both flush and backdoor straight draw. "Lucky" calls and all others fold. "Lucky" is a tournament player who plays like it is always the final table. However, he does think things through.


Turn: 3c


Check, I bet. "Lucky" calls. $370 in the pot.


River: 5h


Check, I bet and "Lucky" quickly checkraises.


This is where I made my mistake. Results will follow.

Dont tell me you folded! However i think you probably reraised him and got popped back by the nuts. also maybe you miss spoke but you floped a gut-shot straight draw with your four flush not a backdoor draw. Anyway I also dont get what you mean that lucky plays like hes always at the final table of a tournament, because the structure and payout format of the tourney should dictate how one should play the final table.

I'd imagine you raised him and folded when he four bet. The only other misreads I can think of are just calling his check-raise with the best hand (hardly a big deal) and folding to his check-raise (which would have to be one of the biggest gaffes of your poker life). If you reraised with the intention of folding if he reraised, then you should have called. Putting yourself in a position to cost yourself a large pot isn't worth the extra bet.

"I am up about four stacks and am on the button in a fairly good game."

-Neither could be possible if Tommy was in this game. He always has the money and the button.


"never play with someone called Lucky"

-And never eat at a place called "Mom's."


"Lucky is a tournament player who plays like it is always the final table. However, he does think things through."

-I don't play tournaments. What does this mean? Does your second sentence mean tournament players don't think things through?


"Lucky quickly checkraises"

-The quicker and more emphatic the aggression, the weaker the hand. Usually. But not always. If you raise and have him beat, you're going to win (at most) one additional bet. If he has you beat, you're going to lose two. Ah-xh is not impossible given the way Lucky played the hand (although I wouldn't have played it this way). Fold is out of the question; call seems the prudent action here.


What was your thinking on the flop and turn?

I would think that a guy name Lucky would have 3-bet the flop with top pair and the nut-flush draw -- failing that, check-raising the turn. -- So I'm not at all clear whether your misread was in not raising the river or raising the river.

The nuts here is Axh, where x is a ten or lower. Would Lucky raise a MP limper with that hand? And wouldn't he have bet or checkraised the turn with top pair and a nut flush draw?


I don't know what lucky has, but I think ACBob has him beat.

Bob,


Excellent description of Lucky's play. He calls people down a lot and picks off many bluffs, often skillfully. He also can get going with his middle position raises as fits the large blind stages of tournaments.


I strongly suspect he had the nuts with a weak suited ace of hearts, a hand he'd play just as happened here. In this situation, I'd still call.


Matt

I do not like the turn bet very much - it is just not very likely Lucky has a worse hand or will fold. It is much more likely you will be check-raised.


This play isn't bad, becuase you are risking a fraction of 2 bets to win about 6 bets. So if it's about 4-1 or less on the fold versus check -raise, I would bet.


On the end, ignore the tells. Lucky would very likely slowplay a set or the A- high draw - these are the hands he raises with, depending on his skill.


If you reraise and get 4 bet, you will call. So you need to be 2-1 that he raises with AA or KK or AK vs. the big draw. How aggressive is he on the river? How often does he make these slowplays?


This goes back to his pre-flop play - would he raise with ATs? A9s? Axs? If the answer is yes to all of these, I would only call. If he has Brierish raising standards, he can't have the ace of hearts, so you should 3 bet the river.


Also, remember that your play is not like a flush draw, so he probably does not read you for one, so you should never fold, and probably re-raise unless he would raise any suited ace pre-flop from his position in the given sitiuation.


On the other hand, if Lucky is a good player, he would often play his weak ace/flush draw passively. If I were in his shoes, I would either 3 bet the flop, or play passively throughout, depending on my knowledge of the raiser.


Just some things to consider. Seems like a thin reraise against most players, but don't go past 4 bets.


Good luck.


Dan Z.

Results and some follow up. Yes, I meant inside straight draw, not back door.


"Plays like the final table" I mean he plays pretty fast. Aggressive, three bets often, leads out often, does not give many free cards.


Result: I call pretty quickly and "Lucky" spreads out pocket 3s for a set of threes on the turn. Board is AsKh6h3c5h. I turn my second nut over like a schoolgirl.


jd and DanZ have it right. Had I given the checkraise on the river some thought, I should have known I had to have the nuts. "Lucky" would have either three bet me on the flop, led or checkraised the turn if he had Axh. Top pair with nut flush draw, yes I am 90%-95% certain he would have made his move earlier.


I called too quickly. One of my leaks. I call raises too quickly, usually to my detriment.


I know Tommy would have earned the extra big bet.


Bob

Chances are he would not have called a three-bet because any three-bet should have a set of threes beat hear. It was still worth a shot however.


***I think you should have considered where he put you.*** You raise the flop and bet the turn. He can't be thinking flush at this point for you. He probably has you on an ace or aces up.

"I think you should have considered where he put you.*** You raise the flop and bet the turn. He can't be thinking flush at this point for you. He probably has you on an ace or aces up."


Absolutely. Hand reading, knowing your opponent and thinking before acting are the key learning points here.


Bob

Bob,


Lucky typically does not three-bet Axh on the flop here. Yes, he does three-bet weaker top pair on the flop sometimes, but almost always with position.


Matt

Beyond the flop, the problem Matt, and you may know best, is whether Lucky would check call the turn and check the river with Ahxh.

"Lucky would have either three bet me on the flop, led or checkraised the turn if he had Axh. Top pair with nut flush draw, yes I am 90%-95% certain he would have made his move earlier."


Hmmm. Don't be so sure. As it happened, he hit his hand on the turn and waited til the river to make a move. This alone means he is very capable of not check-raising the turn with a big hand.

(When I was reading the story I put Lucky on a rivered set of fives.)


"I know Tommy would have earned the extra big bet."


Don't be so sure again! Given how it went down up to the turn, I wouldn't expect him to fold to a turn bet, so I might have taken the free card on the turn, which would have alerted him to the flush possiblity and maybe even made him check the river (bet-call at most), so I'd earn one or two fewer BB's. But then, I'd also have gotten infinite odds on the turn. So we're playing the results game here.


Heck, with all those people in, and holding no overcards, I might have just called on the flop with the monster draw and played make-a-hand.


If we went deep enough, and we left the river betting out of it for a second and talked only of preflop, flop and turn, this

hand could turn out to be a classic case of how the best line depends not on the opponent, but on how the opponent perceives us. Typically I would reraise Lucky before the flop in a situation like this one if I was going to play. I don't know what he would put me on if I cold-called before the flop, because I don't even know what *I* could put me on. Wierd.


Given that everyone else folded on the flop, and that I would have seized the momentum with a preflop reraise, Lucky would have likely checked to me on the flop, and he might have even folded to one bet if he did not have a heart with his pair (you didn't say), with the cutoff still to act behind him.


Back to the hand as it was, yeah, I think you missed a raise on the river. The info was there.


Tommy

Matt/Tommy:


Perhaps I should not be so sure. You guys have different views. That's what makes this game interesting and eternally an education.


Tommy says:


"Hmmm. Don't be so sure. As it happened, he hit his hand on the turn and waited til the river to make a move. This alone means he is very capable of not check-raising the turn with a big hand."


I guess I see Axh, top pair nut flush draw very different than a set. The first is maybe the best hand with dreams while the latter is a huge favorite at being the best with that board.


"Heck, with all those people in, and holding no overcards, I might have just called on the flop with the monster draw and played make-a-hand."


Defintely one way to play. I wanted to build a big one in the event I hit. I actually planned to check the turn if all called and I missed. However, when only "Lucky" called...different situation. With the under pocket pair 3s, had he missed the turn, there is a good chance he mucks when I bet. He just happened to hit and set a trap.


"Given that everyone else folded on the flop, and that I would have seized the momentum with a preflop reraise, Lucky would have likely checked to me on the flop, and he might have even folded to one bet if he did not have a heart with his pair (you didn't say), with the cutoff still to act behind him."


Yes, preflop 3-bet, you and I would have both won with that flop. But that is results oriented. I like QJs multi-way preflop. My flop raise was to build a pot, not reduce the field.


"Back to the hand as it was, yeah, I think you missed a raise on the river. The info was there."


And I most certainly agree.