When to chase gutshot straight draws?

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Just a review on gutshot odds with overcards.

Let me know if my math is correct and how far I should take the following situation. Hypothetical situation follows:

5 limpers and I'm in LP with A-10o. 2.5 BB in pot. Flop comes 6-8-9 rainbow.
I have a gutshot straight draw and 2 over cards. I can assume hitting a seven or an ace would be clean outs, so I have 7 outs in this hand. Not including a ten in this equation as it may not be clean (or should I be including it?).

Anyways, the odds in this case would almost always be correct to call 1 or 2 bets and see the turn, correct?
7 outs is 6:1 underdog to hit an ace or seven on the turn (without including implied odds).

So in my above scenario lets say one player bets, the next raises, two fold, and its to me for 2-cold bets.
The pot will now be offering me 4.5:1 (assuming the first bettor calls the extra 1 bet and neither folds or raises).

The 4.5:1 is almost even with the 5:1 to hit, but the implied pot odds would be much greater than 5:1, so calling here would be a must?
Alternating flop play a bit, lets say one player bets and one calls, other two folds and its to me. Pot is now offering me 7:1 to call. Obviously calling is a must here as well or even raising to try for a free river card.

Does everything look correct here? Any other thoughts on this discussion? Thx.

[sin808]

Lemme know if I'm wrong on this but, what makes you sure you're A outs are clean, because it wasn't raised pf? They may or may not be, some ppl limp with AQo, AJo. Not sure about the 7 either, can you guarantee someone isn't holding JT? Looks like you could easily end up with 2nd best even if you do make it.

oh, and by my math you're 7 outs would be 6.71:1. And if there were 5 limpers in front of you, plus you, plus the blinds wouldn't the pot be more along the lines of 4BB (if the small blind came along as well).

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Lemme know if I'm wrong on this but, what makes you sure you're A outs are clean, because it wasn't raised pf? They may or may not be, some ppl limp with AQo, AJo. Not sure about the 7 either, can you guarantee someone isn't holding JT? Looks like you could easily end up with 2nd best even if you do make it.

oh, and by my math you're 7 outs would be 6.71:1. And if there were 5 limpers in front of you, plus you, plus the blinds wouldn't the pot be more along the lines of 4BB (if the small blind came along as well).

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Ya I rounded the 6.71 to 7. Its always safer to round up. That way you know for sure your odds are justified when they match or exceed.
I wasn't exactly clear but I meant 5 people in total saw the flop. That would be 2.75BB because your right, I did forget to include the .25BB small blind.

I agree with you about the ace may not be a clean out. Could we almost ever count on overcards being a clean out? Your point there makes this scenario even more difficult to judge.

Despite some mathematical innacuracies, would you dump your hand in that scenario? Why or why not?

[sin808]

I think in your original post you listed the odds for your 7 outs at 6:1, so you might wanna double check that. I would probably dump it. Even if the A outs are good, someone may already have a made straight, and if I make mine it might end up 2nd best to JT. Though with ATo I probably wouldn't limp in mid-late position, personally I'd say it's a raise or fold. The pf raise I think would make it easier to play post flop.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Simple. If the pot odds, or implied odds, make it correct to call, then you call. you always consider whether your outs are good, in the case of your AT, tens are probably no good, so don't count them. If someone may have a flush draw, factor that in, possibly not counting flush outs. Whether you'll get raised or not behind you if you call counts too.

There are many situations where it's correct, and many more where it's clearly wrong. A little thought should be enough to figure it out if your basic skills are solid.

al

[sthief09]

OK, first of all the pot can't be 2.5 BB on the flop like you said, since there were 5 limpers, plus you, plus 2 blinds. Secondly, I muck ATo after 5 limpers. Medium-good aces are tough to play against a lot of players, since you run the risk of being either outkicked or lose to 2 pair.

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I can assume hitting a seven or an ace would be clean outs, so I have 7 outs in this hand. Not including a ten in this equation as it may not be clean (or should I be including it?).

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I have 2 comments. First, never assume that your A outs are clean. No matter what the board looks like, you can almost never be sure that an A will win a hand for you. In this case, I'd give my A 1.5 outs, instead of 3, since I figure to lose a hand where I turn an ace a significant amount of times.

Also, as I just showed, outs aren't just completely clean or completely dirty. In this case I wouldn't count the T outs at all (as you said) since it completes a 1-card OESD, but in the future you can count only a part of the outs. If the T would complete a one-card gut shot straight draw, I'd probably give it credit for an out.

For your gut shot outs, I'd probably only count it for 3 outs, since JT is a very popular hand, and even if JT isn't out, you can still end up splitting with any T.

So I'm giving you 4.5 outs, or 42.5-4.5, or ~9.5-1. Another factor to consider is whether you're closing the action. If you call a bet and it's raised behind you, you're now committing an extra SB and you've made a mathematical mistake. If you call a raise and it gets reraised and capped, this is another terrible mistake.

In general you shouldn't be calling raises with draws unless you're getting a significant overlay (like a flush draw or OESD) or getting huge implied odds.

[sthief09]

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Simple. If the pot odds, or implied odds, make it correct to call, then you call.

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this isn't true. there are 2 factors that completely destroy the price you're getting from the pot. one is that you're drawing dead or to a split pot, and the other is that you're not closing the action and there's a reasonable chance (like when there's a bet and a raise to you) that it's going to get popped again and you'll end up paying more than you expected, and paying a worse price than the pot is laying you.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

From the original post...

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If the pot odds, or implied odds, make it correct to call, then you call. you always consider whether your outs are good....

If someone may have a flush draw, factor that in, possibly not counting flush outs. Whether you'll get raised or not behind you if you call counts too.


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If you take one sentence out of context, sure, I was wrong. But in reality I clearly stated that you need to consider more than just your immediate pot odds when making such decisions.

I did take the time to answer a fairly simple question. Please don't take my answer out of context and tell me I was wrong when clearly that is not the case.

al

[sthief09]

oops, I did take that out of context. sorry

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A lot of insight from all the posts in this thread. Much appreciated.
Sthief09, I really like your giving the Ace only 1/2 its worth in outs. I've never thought of looking at a draw like that before and it makes sense.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

al /images/graemlins/grin.gif