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adios
06-07-2004, 11:49 AM
This is in anticipation of a fast growing auto market for consummers in China. An aticle excerpt:

General Motors, Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp. have announced plans in the past eight months to invest about $10 billion in China, which is the world's third- largest vehicle market. They are benefiting from a new automotive policy that bans lending to unauthorized projects and encourages larger carmakers to expand through mergers.

The government, which is seeking to slow economic growth to 7 percent this year from 9.1 percent last year, probably won't derail rising demand for cars, said Ashvin Chotai, a China analyst at Lexington, Massachusetts-based consulting company Global Insight Inc.

Chinese banks have reduced loans to car buyers by at least 75 percent in the past few months.

`Room to Grow'

``China will still have more room to grow, compared to other countries in the region,'' Chotai said in an interview in Beijing. He said the world's most populous country will have about 51 cars and light passenger vehicles per 1,000 people by 2014, up from 16 per 1,000 now, according to Global Insight.

It's a growth rate of about 12.3% compounded annualy for the next 10 years if no population growth which of course isn't true in China so the actual growth rate in actual automobiles being used is much higher. Don't know what the projections are for India. Looks like fossil fuel demand will not abate anytime soon. I did see that the price of a barrel of crude had eased somewhat this morning. Saw that there's a projection of a tanker glut by the year 2006 but I find that hard to believe but maybe.

General Motors Plans $3 Billion Expansion in China (http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=a8PHUyF7cRVc&refer=asia)

General Motors Plans $3 Billion Expansion in China (Update5)
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, plans to spend $3 billion with its partners in China in the next three years to more than double production.

The automaker, which had invested more than $1.6 billion in China, will seek government approval to expand its four ventures to make 1.3 million units in 2007, from about 530,000 units this year. It plans to introduce 20 new models, build a transmission factory and boost engine production.

``Success in China is crucial to GM's global success,'' Phil Murtaugh, chairman and chief executive officer of General Motors China, said in Beijing as the carmaker prepares for the city's auto show. The Detroit-based automaker's profit from China last year more than tripled to $437 million and the nation may be the carmaker's second-biggest market within two years.

General Motors, Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp. have announced plans in the past eight months to invest about $10 billion in China, which is the world's third- largest vehicle market. They are benefiting from a new automotive policy that bans lending to unauthorized projects and encourages larger carmakers to expand through mergers.

The government, which is seeking to slow economic growth to 7 percent this year from 9.1 percent last year, probably won't derail rising demand for cars, said Ashvin Chotai, a China analyst at Lexington, Massachusetts-based consulting company Global Insight Inc.

Chinese banks have reduced loans to car buyers by at least 75 percent in the past few months.

`Room to Grow'

``China will still have more room to grow, compared to other countries in the region,'' Chotai said in an interview in Beijing. He said the world's most populous country will have about 51 cars and light passenger vehicles per 1,000 people by 2014, up from 16 per 1,000 now, according to Global Insight.

Shanghai's Composite Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares and foreign currency B shares, fell as much as 1.5 percent, led by local automakers including Shanghai Automotive Co., the publicly traded unit of GM's Chinese partner.

China's vehicle market ranks behind the U.S. and Japan. The country may overtake Japan in the next two years to become General Motors's second-biggest market, Murtaugh said.

The country's car ownership per person compares with about 700 cars and light passenger trucks per 1,000 people in the U.S., 598 in Japan and 91 per 1,000 in Thailand, according to estimates from Global Insight.

Surging Demand

Overseas automakers have invested an estimated $30 billion in China since the 1980s. Manufacturers are scrambling to make enough vehicles to meet demand after last year's 76 percent surge in sales.

In the first four months of this year, General Motors and its joint ventures sold approximately 178,000 vehicles in mainland China, 56 percent more than a year earlier, the company said. The company sold 8.56 million vehicles worldwide last year.

Shanghai GM, which makes Buick Regal, Sail, Excelle and other models in a venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., is scheduled to expand to 450,000 units by 2005 from about 200,000, the automaker said. The automaker is studying additional new capacity for products it didn't identify.

General Motors also will start production of unspecified models later this year at the former Jinbei General Motors Automotive Company Ltd. in Shenyang, Liaoning. General Motors China, Shanghai Automotive and Shanghai GM reorganized the venture in March. It had been making Blazer sport-utility vehicles for China.

SAIC-GM-Wuling, GM's mini-vehicle venture with Shanghai Automotive and Wuling Automotive, is expanding its manufacturing capacity to 336,000 vehicles a year from 200,000, including the addition of Cadillac models at the plant. The plant expansion is scheduled to start production in 2006.

Engines, Transmissions

Murtaugh said plans to expand its range of Chevrolet brand models in China will be delayed by six months.

General Motors will expand the existing engine plant at Shanghai GM and build a new engine factory and a new transmission plant at SAIC-GM-Wuling, which is in the southwestern Chinese province of Guangxi. The new facility will have annual capacity of 300,000 engines. The location of the new transmission plant is under study, General Motors said.

General Motors will add a virtual reality design, a noise and vibration test lab and other capabilities to the Pan Asia Technical Automotive Center in Shanghai, the company said in the statement.

The automaker's shares rose 72 cents to $46.94 at 10:59 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading and have fallen 13 percent this year.

andyfox
06-07-2004, 12:00 PM
"The government, which is seeking to slow economic growth to 7 percent this year from 9.1 percent last year . . ."

Not many governments, I would think, are seeking to slow their economic growth.

Nothing in the article about whether any hybrids or hydrogen cell cars are planned. GM was originally pessimistic on hybrids and plans to market a hydrogen cell car here in the U.S. in 2010.

adios
06-07-2004, 12:04 PM
Inflation fears abound regarding China so I believe that's why the want to slow growth but 7% is very robust. Wondered about fuel effecient vehicles myself in China and what actually GM is planning to sell.