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View Full Version : 9-18 Problem: small set in the big blind


10-01-2001, 06:11 AM
Saturday I was playing in a Commerce Casino 9-18, and like most such games, this one was fairly loose. I have pocket 5s in the big blind.


Three people limp to the cutoff who raises. The cutoff is fairly tight, but amazingly easy to read. The button and small blind call, as do I.


The Flop comes 5 - 7 - Q, rainbow. Perfect. I fire out a bet, two of the limpers call, as does the cutoff. Four of us see the turn: Jack of the 4th suit.


Board is now 5 7 J Q.


I bet out again. One of the limpers raises me. All fold to me. This limper is loose preflop, and never opposed to taking one off. He is close to a "maniac", but I know he respects my play tremendously. I figure him for J5, J7, or QJ. There is also the possibility that he has pocket 7s, and didn't raise on the flop, because he wanted to call-reraise, but didn't get the opportunity to because the preflop raiser just smooth-called.


I three bet, and he calls.


The river is another queen. I now have the worst fullhouse, and here is my question. If he has J7 or J5, he hates that card. I've represented a lot of strength so far, so if:


1.) I check and he bets, he has to figure that I will call or raise. Thus, he would only bet with a full-house (I think). Any fullhouse is bigger than mine. I would probably still call due to the size of the pot, and I can't be 100% certain that I'm beat.


2.) If I check, and he has J5 or J7, I think he will check behind me. I've checked many scare cards on the river to him all day, and he only bluffed once, and I called him on it. Moreover, he can't figure that the Q is a scare card for me.


3.) If I bet, and he has J5 or J7, he will call (without a question), so I will make one bet. If I bet, and he raises, he must have a fullhouse, so I can safely lay it down.


Given the above, I figure that the best option is to bet, and fold if raised. Do you guys agree, or would you check-call, or would you call the raise on the river, or would you check raise, or would you start dancing like a goat with fleas? WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Thanks in advance for any suggestions.


I ask this primarily because Saturday was one of my worst sessions ever. I started out up $800 (within about 3.5 hours), but ended up down about $1100 (I played about 17 hours). There are very few mistakes that I can pin down, and attribute most of this tremendous swing to the nature of poker and one grotesque misplay on my behalf (not even worth posting. . . I'd be better off dancing like a goat with fleas). Thanks,


Worm

10-01-2001, 12:06 PM
"If I bet, and he has J5 or J7, he will call (without a question), so I will make one bet."


are you certain?


"If I bet, and he raises, he must have a fullhouse, so I can safely lay it down."


really? are you certain?


i wouldnt be able to be this certain against a typical loose 9-18 player. i would go into check and call mode on the river. if you are willing to lose one bet on the river then why not lose it in such a way that you get to see his cards. a bet by you is not going to get him to lay down any full house, but a check may tempt him enough to bet with a worse hand, unlikely as that is.

in this case you will only get called or raised with hands that can beat you. also he might check some better hands behind you like 7s full. save your big bets for when youre more likely to have the best hand.


"(I played about 17 hours)"


dont do this.


mike

10-01-2001, 12:34 PM
I would bet the river every time with my full house and call if raised. Folding would be unthinkable. You will get crying calls from trip queens, queens-up, or a lower two pair.

10-01-2001, 01:39 PM
As you know, hold'em is a game that awards aggressiveness. So bet the river, and if raised, reraise him.


No, I'm just kidding. I would check-call the river. Or maybe you should just have stuck with the drunken home games you normally play.

10-01-2001, 04:10 PM
Do not lay this hand down! If you can't read your opponent, than how do you know you're beat? Maybe he has AK? Who knows?


You can check and he'll either flip his cards over or raise you. If you're feeling timid, check. Otherwise bet and if you are raised, call. I like a raise because if he doesn't have anything, he'll be reluctant to hang in there against you later on down the road when you bet into him. Fear is a great thing!


But a check or a bet is what's called for. Do not fold. Don't forget, he's trying to figure out what you have as well.


What was the result?

10-01-2001, 04:53 PM
Bet and call if raised.

10-01-2001, 06:50 PM
Maybe this is a weakness in my game which I am just not sophisticated enough to understand. But so far, I've never folded a full house in either Hold'em or Stud. And I've never failed to bet them for value.


I came close recently in Stud. I caught a 6 on 6th street to give me 6s full of Aces (just a pair of 6s showing on the board). My opponent had Q88Q on his board and I had already put him on Queens since he had been calling my bets with an Ace as my door card. So now I believe he had Qs full of 8s. He bet on sixth street and I thought about folding but made the call anyway. I got lucky and caught an Ace on the river and my As full beat his Qs full. My call on 6th was probably still incorrect though despite the size of the pot.


In your situation, I bet the river and CALL any raise.

10-01-2001, 09:13 PM
Okay, for those of you who wanted to know, I bet, and folded when raised.


Go ahead, if I see any fewer than 18 people criticizing my fold, then I'll be disappointed in your ability to flame me.


Now for my justification...I three bet the turn. . . he had to know that i had a huge hand at the time. Like I said about my opponent, he respected me greatly. Then, he raised the river when I bet into him. If he did not have QJ or Q7,(or maybe Q5), then he could not have done this. . even with 7's full, he'd just call. If I laid down a winner, well, then curses.


So, given that I was going to fold to a raise, why the heck did I bet? Good question. Excellent question. The reason for this was because he would call (as I said, he would call with J5 or J7 - no doubt about it, but he wouldn't bet with these hands).


*******No matter what I did (check-call, or bet-fold), I would lose one bet if he had me beat, but only by bet-folding would I stand to gain a bet if I had him beat. Does this make sense? ******


Upon further review, if he had pocket 7s, he would have capped the flop. He must have had Qs full.


In the end, I still sorta feel like I played it right (even though I'm still expecting large quantities of people to tell me otherwise). Given the size of the pot, I could have called on the river, fully expecting to lose, but I had great confidence in my read and still do. The only difference is that maybe I should have check-called instead of trying to eke out that one bet on the river.


Mike - as for your comments about playing 17 hours....I know this may sound stupid or cocky or both, but it doesn't affect my play....as a recent college graduate, anything less than 30 hours of straight awakedness (a new word!!) doesn't bother me too much. I've played over 24 hours straight a very large number of times, and in fact, many of my best sessions have been marathons (I just take a quick nap when the other players call for a new set-up!!).


I appreciate the feedback (even if it seems that I didn't heed it).


Worm


P.S. Mark, I think that your advice is skewed. Whoever gave you such advice in your past must be a real moron. . . probably a seattle mariners fan

10-01-2001, 10:09 PM
There are situations in Hold 'em where folding a full house is correct; suppose that you flop bottom set on a rainbow, uncoordinated board, then the board comes pairing the top card (especially if it's a 10 or higher - doubly true for an A-high board) there's action on the turn, then the board rivers the other pair - you're house is probably no good at this point if you're in a multiway pot. It happens and it's damned tough to call here, I think, even against total morons, although some jokers will try to win here with A-high kicker or some other madness like that, folding is still clear. I don't play much stud anymore, since there aren't any mid-limit games in N. Cali, but folding a full house would probably only be correct on 6th st if you knew you were drawing dead or nearly so - i.e. he's got quads showing. In the example you talked about, even if you KNEW he had queens full, which I'm not sure you can, you've still got 3 outs assuming you're 2 A's and the case 6 haven't been seen. A call is certainly correct in most stud games in this case due to pot odds. Note this is why stud's so aggravating; you've got to make so many of these crying calls it's got some huge swings.

10-01-2001, 10:10 PM
I undersatnd what your thinking is with a bet and fold to a raise. But you are making a huge mistake in this situation. The pot is way too big to be laying full houses down on the river for one more bet. And you say he is a borderline maniac. He may respect your play, but on the other hand he may also know that you make huge laydowns on the river. Or he could be overplaying 3 Q's. If your wrong even one time, laying down a huge hand like this, it will you take you so many more great laydown to make up for it. that is as long as one of your great laydowns doesn'yt cost you another big pot by being wrong.

10-01-2001, 10:11 PM
No, I don't think that betting out is the only way you could gain a bet from him if you had him beat. If you check the river, you might induce a bet out of him, as he may put you on J7 or J5. Also, while you are right in that by check/calling or bet/folding you are only losing one big bet either way, by bet folding, there is a fairly good possibility of throwing away a winner, whereas by check/calling, you will find out who truly has the best hand, and since each option costs the same to you, why not check/call... You gotta play more aggressively! haha...

10-01-2001, 10:48 PM
"*******No matter what I did (check-call, or bet-fold), I would lose one bet if he had me beat, but only by bet-folding would I stand to gain a bet if I had him beat. Does this make sense? ******"


yes, but this is also the only way that you risk losing the whole pot to a raise by a lesser hand. while this is not likely given the betting on the turn, it is still possible, and losing a whole BIG pot that is yours when you can just check-call is a huge disaster! it is not worth risking the whole pot here to win just one more bet.

10-01-2001, 11:33 PM
I could definitely fold 2s full in Hold'em if the board was:


2c,Ad,Ks,Ah,Kd


It's obvious I'm beaten here. Any decent player would fold here. For some reason, this situation just hasn't happened to me. That luck will run out eventually.

10-02-2001, 05:39 PM
When you are first to act on the river and are in doubt, I believe betting is the best strategy. Two good things can happen if you bet: You can be called by a worse hand or not called by a better hand (this will not be the case here, of course). If you check, you are likely to lose a bet if you have the worst hand and not gain one if you have the best. The only way you gain by checking and calling is when the player bluffs. If you 3 bet the turn, he won't bluff (some players may bet 3 Q's for value, but unfortunately not many). Grit your teeth, bet, and hope for the best. If he raises, you are beat.


Does it really matter if you get to see his cards? They don't pay for that.

10-02-2001, 08:29 PM
Wow, it seems that somebody else agrees with me. . .


Now, I thoroughly expect to get ripped apart when I tell you guys this...I folded after the river raise...face up. Go ahead. Now tell me that people are going to continue to take shots at me. I know it was stupid, and it was a one time thing for no reason. I can't even say "I did it because I wanted....". I did it for NO reason. Maybe I wanted to handicap myself in the future.


But, after folding (face up), a couple players said "you had a full house", to which I replied "I just had two pair". I said "it doesn't matter, though, because he had QJ". The player beside me said "we'll never know", and my reply (and the final reply in this rather brief dialogue) was "sure, we already know".


I didn't feel it necessary to throw away another $18 to see what I already knew. Maybe check-calling would have been better, but as Dav points out, there is no way to gain a bet that way. This player would not bet on the river with a fullhouse...I had called him down twice, recently, with less than top pair, and was successful both times.


It was stupid to fold face up.


Worm

10-03-2001, 07:01 PM
Why all the concern about squeezing one more bet out of the hand? Saving a bet is just as important. Besides, you seemed convince that you had a loser, so "winning" another bet is a moot point.


It can be rationalized all you want, but it makes no sense to me to bet if you're going to fold to a raise. If you are absolutely convinced that you've read his cards right, you check and fold, no?


You were willing to part with $18 on the river, but no more, right? By betting and folding to the raise, you lose that bet and forfeit any chance at the pot. If you check and call, you spend your $18 much more wisely. Not only do you see his cards, you might win!


As for folding face up, well, I wouldn't have done that. You might score a moral victory by showing off your reading skills, but some things are better kept secret.

10-04-2001, 05:51 PM
I wasn't overly convinced of my read. Like I've said about 19 times now, I had him pegged for J5, J7, or QJ. I win with 2 out of 3.


J5 = 3 ways

J7 = 9 ways

QJ = 6 ways,


I win with 12 out of 18 (2 out of 3).


I was only convinced that he had QJ after the raise on the river. 2 out of 3 times, I win a bet, 1 out of 3 times I lose a bet. If I check call, 0 out of 3 times I win a bet (he'll only bet a fullhouse against me), 2 out of 3 times I win nothing, and 1 out of 3 times I lose a bet. I still think bet folding is the (mathematically) best play, but you are right, with that large of a pot, I should at least get to a showdown.


As for showing my cards...no moral victory, just a stupid thing to do.


Worm