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09-30-2001, 11:50 AM
In a very loose aggressive 20/40 holdem you call behind three limpers with 9h8h in the cutoff (you didn’t raise to buy the button since the button is folding out of turn). The small blind calls, the big blind semi-maniac raises, an early position total maniac limp reraises, and it is capped by another loose limper. The other limper cold calls three bets.


It will now cost you three more bets. The big blind and early limper will both call the four bet cap but the small blind is solid and probably won’t. Do you have an:


Easy fold?


Marginal fold?


Marginal call?


Easy call?


Assume that the post flop play will be aggressive but that your opponents play bad.


Regards,


Rick

09-30-2001, 01:20 PM
For the sake of argument, I'll say that you're getting 19:3 on a call (I'm assuming that the SB will call 1/3 of the time). So that's about 6.3:1. If you want to see the turn card, I am going to assume that it will cost you 3 bets but that you will have the company of 3 opponents. Then let's assume two opponents for one bet on the turn and one opponent for one bet on the river. That gives you effective/implied odds of 34:10 or 3.4:1 (if I have added correctly). A better way to look at it though is probably to not count the size of your river bet, because you will basically always be winning if you make your draw and you will not be putting the money in if you don't on the river. So I'm going to give you 34:8 odds instead, or 3.25:1. These estimates are of course completely ballpark, and I may not be the best person to estimate since I don't know the essense of "la la" poker, but I have played in NYC, and I think some of our crazies are competitive with some of your crazies.


Now that I have written all of that, I'm going to ignore your question :-), since I don't have the time to be thoughtful enough to answer it. Maybe this post will help someone else post something useful, though.


-Dan

09-30-2001, 04:43 PM
Rick,


I just ran some simulations, and the results confirmed my suspicions. I gave you 4 opponents and had no players fold at any point in the hand.


Sim 1) Your four opponents have random cards. You win 27.1% of the time.


Sim 2) One oppoent holds A9 (the ace is not of your suit), and the other opponents have random cards. You win 20.1% of the time.


Sim 3) One opponent has QQ (neither queen is your suit), and the other opponents have random cards. You win 18.6% of the time.


Taken together with my assumptions in the above post, these simulations suggest that it is either a marginal call or a marginal fold preflop. My above post estimated your effective odds at 3.25:1. Your estimated probability distributions of your opponents' holdings will determine whether it is a marginal call or marginal fold. Of course, if your estimation of your effective odds differs dramatically from my own (and your estimate is surely better than mine, since you were there and know the players), then that will tilt the analysis.


On a more personal note (only personal on a highly relative scale), I would tend to fold, since situations like this will tend to hurt your coefficient of varation (win rate/ standard deviation), which is an important number for me (since I have a limited bankroll).


-Dan


P.S. Thanks again for responding to my preflop post.

09-30-2001, 04:54 PM
assuming you are receiving 19 to

3 odds you need to have a favorable

flop greater than 16% of the time to be

profitable.Favorable flops include

a flush 0.8% a four flush 10.9% a slit two

pair 2.02% (so far13.72).I do not know odds of

flopping three of a kind 0.5%? orflopping an

open ended straight but I am convinced it is

high enough to warrant a call.I understand

that you will still frequently lose even after

a strong flop but this is more than balanced

by your implied odds and those rare occasions

where you still win with a less favorable flop.

09-30-2001, 04:54 PM
Rick,


With only one bet invested I fold, even if you flop a good draw its going to be real expensive if you miss and even more expensive if you make second best(possible bigger straights, flushes, bigger two pair...). Having position gives you a little edge but not enough for me in this case unless I'm on full blast sceaming tilt or feel like gambling(either of which is very rarely the case).


Just my thought,


Mike

09-30-2001, 06:06 PM
Easy fold. It's going to be too expensive to play this hand, and you might be dominated. Two more players and it might be more tempting to see the flop, but it would still be prudent to fold. These hands play best when you can get in cheap.


Don't tell me you thought you had Q9...


;-)

09-30-2001, 07:49 PM
This is an easy fold. Your implied odds on a suited connector get destroyed when you have to pay multiple bets to take a flop. Be grateful you can skip away for one bet and did not get trapped into calling one raise at a time.


As an aside, players do not play random cards, especially in capped pots. They tend to play cards in the "playing zone" (that is ace through nine). They tend to play suited cards (including two hearts). They play pairs and connecting cards. If one were to run a simulation by shrinking the universe to non-random hands and eliminating the possibility of someone having a hand like seven-deuce offsuit for instance, you would find that your medium suited connector will not win nearly as often as you think.

09-30-2001, 08:34 PM
Rick- easy fold...run, do not walk, to the nearest muck.! Your hand is not nearly strong enough to stay with all this action. Babe.

09-30-2001, 08:54 PM
Easy fold. With these players in front of you, the two main reasons you would want to play this hand, your position and the straight/flush potential, are negated. It's simply going to cost you too much to get to the river, even if the flop is favorable, and you're not going to be able to use your positional advantage to get free cards, to buy the pot, or to do anything else. The hand was only worth one bet the first time around, I don't think it quadrupled in value now. I'd rather wait until I had a bird (or two) in the hand before I took part in the craziness. See the flop cheap with these guys.


Regards,

Andy

09-30-2001, 09:15 PM
Jim,


You wrote, "If one were to run a simulation by shrinking the universe to non-random hands and eliminating the possibility of someone having a hand like seven-deuce offsuit for instance, you would find that your medium suited connector will not win nearly as often as you think."


I assume that this comment was directed at the conclusions I drew from my simulations, so I would like to shed some further evidence on the matter.


I just ran a (cold) simulation in which I gave Rick's four opponents an ace, king, queen, and jack respectively (of all different suits). Given this construction, Rick's 98s wins 20.6%. While this is less than if his opponents had random cards, it is not so different as to make a call flagrantly wrong. Then I ran a very pessimistic simulation in which I gave one of Rick's opponents the A of his suit, another J10, another a K, and the last one a 9. In this scenario, Rick's hand won 16.4%.


I agree that a fold is the best option, but I can't agree with the tenor of your and other remarks which suggest that calling is flagrantly wrong.


-Dan

09-30-2001, 10:45 PM
For those of you who read my original post, you will probably notice that I can't divide. This is true. I don't deny it. The effective odds I estimated were 4.25:1, not 3.25:1. Given Rick's description of the players and a bunch of cold sims that I have run, I think that the decision is close. Folding is probably correct, but I don't that it can be as clearly correct as most of you are making is sound.


-Dan

09-30-2001, 10:45 PM

10-01-2001, 01:17 AM
Rick already knows the answer to this question, so he probably isn't talking about a hand he played. He's probably just looking for some reinforcements to convince someone else.

10-01-2001, 03:03 AM
I did not mean to make it sound like computer simulations have no value but my problem is that they simply do not reflect the way a hand gets played. For example, do your "wins" for this hand include the times where it hits runner-runner? In reality, the player may get bet and raised out on the flop and never get to see the turn or the river. What about the times where this hand runs into a larger flush or a larger straight and goes on to lose some serious money? The more players competing, the more likely this is too happen. This is especially true when two or three hearts flop and several players want to continue to take off cards and see the turn and river.

10-01-2001, 08:54 AM

10-01-2001, 09:36 AM

10-01-2001, 12:20 PM

10-01-2001, 12:46 PM
Thanks for the input.


I thought the answer was closest to a marginal fold from an expectation perspective and perhaps a clear fold if you want to hold down swings due to bankroll.


Note that with this hand (9-8 suited) it would not make much difference whether or not solid players or maniacs made the raises and reraises (although against solid players any bottom straight is doomed – you will often run into AK). Both groups will put about the same amount of pressure on post flop; the maniacs because they are maniacs and the solid players because they will have big pairs and big cards.


Also note that domination is not an issue. You are playing for straights, flushes, trips and two pair. But let’s say you had AQ offsuit on the button and decide to limp. The same action described in the lead post erupted. Against solid players you clearly need to fold – you will be dominated or drawing nearly dead that often. But against maniacs (BTW – I should have mentioned maniacs with a capital M) you probably can play since they don’t need a big pair or big cards to make these plays. But it will be a wild ride.


Regards,


Rick

10-01-2001, 02:37 PM
n/m

10-01-2001, 04:45 PM
When I saw Rick's post, this was my reaction...


I knew that if I were in the situation that my cards would be flying into the muck. Similarly, I knew that 90% of other strong players would do the same (the 10% being perhaps the Abdul's, Angalinas, and Izmet's of the world--though I don't want to put words into their mouths, I do bet taht they would at least hesitate a little longer than most). So my gut said fold and I knew everyone else's would. But that doesn't teach us anything!!! What I also suspected was that folding isn't as clear as it feels. That's why I ran the sims, and I think my results confirm that the decision is at leat much closer than most are giving it credit for. With that said, I am really glad that Rick's conclusion is very much in line with my own ("closest to a marginal fold from an expectation perspective and perhaps a clear fold if you want to hold down swings due to bankroll"), because it sucks being alone when there are so many smart people talking.


-Dan

10-01-2001, 08:13 PM
Dan,


The reason I posted this simple pre flop hand was that my friend, who made a good part of a giant comeback for the night after flopping a straight that held up, called three more bets without even thinking it was at least a close decision before the flop.


In other words, if consensus expert opinion is that it is a marginal fold then it doesn't cost my friend much to call. However, if my friend thinks it is a clear call then it is easy to imagine that under somewhat different circumstances she will probably make the mistake of making a marginal call when a consensus of expert opinion shows the best play is clearly to fold. Now that is the type of thinking that costs a lot of money in the long run.


Anyway, what are friends for other then to rain on "good hand" stories?


Regards,


Rick

10-02-2001, 01:08 AM
Omigod, I must come off as a loose cannon.


It's an easy fold.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

10-02-2001, 01:24 PM
Angelina,


When I wrote it was a marginal fold my unwritten estimate was that it was incorrect to call by about 1/2 to 3/4 of a full small bet. Since she was calling three more bets cold in a 20/40 game ($60) I estimated that the call would have been about break even if she could have been given a discount and been able to do it for about $48. So when I said marginal I was thinking in proportional terms.


In other words, losing $12 in EV on a single $20 call is a huge mistake, especially since a player inclined to make this type of error will usually repeat it many times per session. Losing $12 on a $60 call is perhaps a marginal mistake, especially since that situation is rarely repeated.


Of course my EV estimate is just a guestimate ;-).


Regards,


Rick

10-02-2001, 02:31 PM
Rick,


The distinction you make is a good one. Here's the rub...


The way in which we are able to understand whether we should take action a vs. action b is in the relative sense that you are discussing. However, the way that we keep track (and what ultimately matters) is the absolute measure.


This is why turn and river play deserve lots of attention (as S&M are always saying, or maybe just S, I don't know), because making the correct close decision on the big bet rounds has a big effect on your absolute EV. So that's why close decision on later rounds deserve more discussion that close decision on earlier rounds. However, the close decisions on earlier rounds repeat themselves more frequently in a more similar manner (which is, for instance, why I think play from the blinds is worth discussing), so that balances things.


I had a few minutes and felt like rambling, so that's what you get.


-Dan

10-02-2001, 03:20 PM
I'm confused. You are talking -$12 EV per hand, right? If so, it doesn't matter to me if I have to call $20 or $60, it is still a $12 mistake per hand.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

10-02-2001, 04:29 PM

10-02-2001, 04:55 PM
No, the difference is in return on investment (it's bad to invest a million to earn $10, it's good to invest $1 to win $10). The EV is the same.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

10-02-2001, 05:19 PM
Angelina,


I'm looking at the relative magnitude of the mistake and what the mistake signifies.


If you make a $12 mistake on a $20 pre flop call in a 20/40 game it probably is an indication that you are way too loose pre flop. For example, I would think calling several limpers with J2 offsuit or similar hands is about a $12 mistake and no decent player would ever make it.


If you make a $12 mistake on a $60 cold call the relative magnitude of the mistake is much smaller. It probably means you got caught up in the action on a freak hand. Your pre flop game could otherwise be relatively sound and you could even be a winning player.


Regards,


Rick

10-02-2001, 06:31 PM
Angelina,


I agree with the above regarding investments.


As an aside, about how bad in terms of EV was the preflop cold call? Assume the SB (solid) would call 1/3 of the time as Daniel estimated. Remember that two out of the three raisers are total Friday night gambling maniacs and the other two players are way too loose.


Also assume our hero plays well post flop.


Regards,


Rick

10-03-2001, 01:03 AM
Oops, I placed the following as a reply to the wrong post, here it is again where it belongs:


---


No, the difference is in return on investment (it's bad to invest a million to earn $10, it's good to invest $1 to win $10). The EV is the same.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

10-03-2001, 02:17 AM
$12 mistake is still a $12 mistake when your EV doesn't change no matter what your investment is.


But in terms of ROI and variance, investing $60 to lose $12 is even worse than investing $20 to lose that $12.


But I know what you are thinking: "It probably means you got caught up in the action on a freak hand. Your pre flop game could otherwise be relatively sound and you could even be a winning player."


You say you will do this mistake rarely. OK, but it is still a $12 mistake. A fairly big mistake in a $20-40 game (one that you will, granted, do rarely - I hope so.), btw.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

10-03-2001, 02:40 AM
The task of calculating (or even approximating) EV for this situation is monstrous because it's a multiway pot and the range of possible opposing hands is too broad, it is well beyond this girl's capabilities.


I can try to run some Turbo sims if you want, keep in mind that Turbo results were poo-pooed on in the past on this forum by some big poker names. Myself, I find them very usefull.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina