Tough turn decision

20/40 Hold'em.


A solid player (SP) limps from one position after UTG and two loose weak players limp from the cutoff and button. The SB folds and I check my option in the BB with Jd7d.


The flop is Jh 7h 4c. As I am in the process of reaching for my chips to bet, SP starts to bet in a very excited fashion out of turn. I continue with my bet (it would have been awkward and of questionable ethics to pull my bet back, but that is really not the point of this post). SP calls, and the other two limpers fold.


The turn is 6s. I check with the intention of check-raising. Here is my thinking at this point. I figure that SP is unlikely to be on hearts for 2 reasons: 1) he would not have been so excited about the flop, and 2) he would probably not semi-bluff with two calling stations yet to act. I rule out pocket jacks, because he would have raised pre-flop. I rule out pocket fours, because that is too weak of a holding for him to play. Hands consistent with his play thus far are AJ (8 ways), KJs (2 ways), QJs (2 ways), 77 (1 way), and KhQh (1 way). If he has KhQh (remember, there's only one way to have that), then he may well check behind. He will surely bet with the rest of those holdings, 12 of which I am ahead of and 1 of which I'm behind. Unfortunately, I think that the one hand I am trailing to is more consistent with his play than the others, so I'll give 77 a 4X waiting. I also think that KhQh is pretty consistent (I may have been giving him too much credit for my above comments about being on a flush draw), so I'll give it a waiting of 2X. Given these weightings, a check raise is a good option 12 ways, a bad option 2 ways, and a disaterous option 4 ways (remember that I'm weighing them disproportionately).


Using an abbreviated version of this analysis, I elected to check the turn. I would like to hear comments on this decision. I thought about it a bit on the car ride home, and I'm still undecided on how I feel about it. It's not a play that I would usually make, so I would like to hear other's opinions as I venture into new territory (less the good or bad results from this particular hand affect my future decisions).


Thanks for your thoughts.


-Dan

Daniel,


These are just a few quick thoughts.


You might be weighing the 77 a bit high. And I'm not so sure he would check behind head up on the turn with KhQh (he would be more likely to check with the AhTh).


One problem is that he might three bet a checkraise with the AJ and always would with the set. This means you have to call down a bet on the river after being three bet on the turn.


I favor a straight out bet on the turn. He might raise with a few hands you beat and maybe a draw (you should call rather than reraise). He can't take a free card. If he has a set you lose less.


Regards


Rick

Top pair, no resistance on the flop, I don't think, I just bet the turn autopilot. Turn and river combined, my hope is to win two bets with the best hand and lose one bet with the worst hand.


On the rare cases when I check-raise, my hope is to win three bets. That's a reasonable expectation with, say, a set, and a scattered ace or king-high board, after the opponent raised me on the flop. Your hand is nothing close to that. It's hard to imagine a losing hand he could have that he's willing to put in three bets, turn and river combined, that he wouldn't raise with on the flop.


Tommy

I doubt the solid player has a jack, unless he has JJ. If he did, why would he not raise the flop to get rid of middle pairs and gutshots.


If he does not have jacks, he either has a heart draw (AXs, KQs, or T9s, maybe 89s). He could also have 77. Most liekly, he is drawing.


So I would think a turn bet is automatic. He may raise with the extra outs afforded by a gutshot or overcards, so I would call his raise and also a river bet unless a heart falls, then I'd fold.


Just my 2 cents.


Dan Z.

I don't possibly see how you could say AJ, KJs, or QJs could be consistent with his play. If you had labeled him as solid player, he surely would have raised these most of the time on the flop.


I'd expect him to either have a draw or a set here and certainly not a hand like AJ or KJ. I would certainly bet the turn here.


Just my 2 cents.


ActionBob

A little while ago, I posted saying that "hold 'em is a game of two betting rounds - preflop/flop and turn/river".


I really belive it helps your game to think of it that way and let it guide your actions.


Glad to see that you too appear to approach it that way.

skp,


"A little while ago, I posted saying that 'hold 'em is a game of two betting rounds - preflop/flop and turn/river'."


I totally agree. By being kinda spunky on the first round (preflop and flop), and more cautious on the second round (turn and river), the game I play isn't really $20-$40. It's more like $40-$40.


Tommy

Thanks for all the responses.


A big reason for this unorthodox turn check was because SP knows that I know that he acted very excitedly about the flop. Therefore, even if he is drawing (which I agree that it looks like he is), then I think he'd be a great spot to semi-bluff me on the turn. Also, I may have been representing more than top pair on the flop in his opinion since I bet despite his out of turn action (thereby showing a lot of strength on my part perhaps), so while raising with AJ or KJ or QJ may be automatic normally, he might be scared to pull the trigger now; but, if I check to him on the turn, that will erase these thoughts and he will surely bet his top pair.


What I'm saying is that my turn play was based on the strange way that the flop action happened. In the absesnse of that, I agree that a turn bet is basically automatic for me.


On the whole, I think that a turn bet would have still been a better play. The best play from out of position is almost always the most straightforward one IMO.


For those who care, the result was that he checked behind on the turn and then folded on the river after thinking for a bit (Ah10h seems the most likely hand he could have had).


-Dan

i may have went for a checkraise on flop and bet out on river. but since you started to bet the flop. bet the flop and turn. it is more important to bet the turn then to get that, haha i got you check raise on the turn. for 2 reasons. 1) you want to bet and not give a free chance to beat you on a hand he may fold the turn, and only call the river if he catches and beats you. your hand is strong, but mot impossible to beat. especially with the extra straight card on turn. if he has a pocket pair and gutshout straight draw. 2)its more important imo to make sure to get the 1 sure bet out of him, then try to get 2 or none. and the times he has a set of sevens lose 3 bets on the turn.