Reposted at Rick's request - top pair folded

Here's a hand I played and posted a while ago that Rick wanted me to post.


Players essentially unknown. There;s an early limper and a late limper. I have KJo (red) on the button I just call. Both blinds call.


Flop is Jc8c4s. SB bets, BB folds, UTG and late limper call, and I call.


Turn is 9c. SB bets again, UTG and late limper call. I fold.


I will hold off on the results, though you can find them if you scroll back a week or so.


I think Rick just wants to see me get ridiculed again /images/smile.gif

did your purse get in the way when you mucked those cards???


no seriously, i think you have less trouble if you raise the flop and get bet into again, but if you know the players the fold could easily be correct. many of the players I play against freeze up and wont bet without a solid hand when the flush card hits.

You what!?


:-)


I think it's a good fold. I would have raised pre-flop and on the flop, but given the way the hand was played to that point, I can't imagine your K-J being any good.


And, to take the pressure off of you, I'm going to repost one I posted a couple of years ago. The first response I got, from a very good player, was "You what!?"

Dan,


Let's make a few ground rules to keep the analysis focused.


First, let's accept that it was at least reasonable to call (rather than raise) on the button with the KJ offsuit. The original thread went off on a pre-flop tangent.


Second, on the flop consider all three options (call, raise, fold) and try to assign a degree of certainty to their correctness (i.e., is it close?).


Third, on the turn analyze all three options based on the fact that you called on the flop (even if you thought the flop call was wrong). Once again, try to assign a degree of certainty to their correctness.


I'm hoping for some fresh opinions and also would like to see if some of the original respondents reconsider. I'll stay out for now.


Regards,


Rick


PS Also - no peeking at results :-).

OK I'll play.


Pre-flop, I consider both folding and calling. I hate raising. I do not see how this hand warrants it, or plays well in a raised pot. Raising will make my opponents harder to read. If they were bad players both, esp. the UTG player, I would raise, but I had no reason to believe that. I als o had no knowledge as to how tight the blinds were, so I could not count on keeping the pot short. UTG is more likely to have me in trouble than I am to have him in trouble.


On the flop, I again consider a call vs. fold. I think the fact that UTG has no jack, and that the SB very likely is beting a draw or a strong hand (a weak jack would look to check -raise I think). I do not think the SB is betting an 8 - with this board, this would be pretty reckless. It is possible, but just not likely. UTG's call is very scary - I will find out from him on the turn what the story is. The late limper's call is not so worrisome, but likely means there are even more outs against me.


So I think the probabilities were as follows (in my head, inthe heat of battle):


Flop - 70% call, 30% fold.


Turn - 9c. This is probably the worst card in the deck. SB bets again. Hmmm...SB's draw just hit, or they have a J with a club kicker. Does Ac8x bet again? possibly, but I doubted that before, and betting with that hand seems a little silly.

This player does not seem afraid of anyone else hitting a draw.

If SB has a club kicker, half the time it ties or beats me (T,Q,K,A).


Now UTG calls. Ok, they either have KQ with a club, TT with a club, or they have me beat. The "have me beat camp" is winning on this one - it is unlikely someone calls with KQ off on this flop in bad position, and TT usually raises preflop and plays "raise or fold" on the flop. So I am very certain UTG has me beat, I just don't know by how much.


The late player calls, ok, he might have KQ with the king of clubs, or JT with the T of clubs, but if he has these hands, then UTG doesn't. It is also possible he has a strong hand less than a flush, like a set or straight, or the nut flush and is slowplaying.


So, when I added up the number of possible calling hands that I beat, and realized I was relying on both callers to have these hands, and on the bettor to have less than KJ, I thought it was a pretty clear fold at the time. I was also looking ahead to the river, where I won't be able to bet, and where I will have real trouble calling a bet.


My thoughts on the turn were -


Fold - 95% Raise -0% Call - 5% (I hit my "triple parlay")


Dan Z.

I think calling preflop with KJo after two limpers is fine. I would almost never raise here unless the blinds, especially the big blind, were very tight. If you raise you'll almost always be pot-committed to a four-way hand that doesn't play well against four players.


I think that the options of raising or calling the flop are very close. You are probably ahead right now but against three players you aren't much of a favorite. And if you're behind you're playing with very few outs. A raise won't get anyone out, and it doesn't make the turn play any easier. I think folding on the flop is bad poker.


On the turn, I think that folding is correct, but calling isn't that wrong. There is a good chance that you are behind and drawing very slim. If you aren't behind already, then there are a lot of cards that will beat you on the river. The good thing about keeping the pot small is that you shouldn't feel obligated to call here.


It sounds like you posted this because you would have won, but I think that playing these types of hands fast and to the river is a big money drain.

Ok.


In my mind raising is clearly better than calling, and folding is dead wrong. This is your last cheap street. Use it to find out where you stand and seize the momentum so you can check the turn when a club or A or Q falls and check the river if you end up betting the turn but don't improve. If you get reraised on the flop, the turn laydown becomes trivial. If you don't, you get to the showdown for a maximum of one big bet, about what your hand's worth in that situation. Calling leaves you guessing too much.


The degree of "corectness" really depends on who's in that pot.


With the pot at 7.5 BB when it gets to you, folding isn't automatic. You never have to put three bets in, and with the right lineup of players there can be a better than 20% chance of winning with KJo. Against a Vegas style lineup or especially a small blind who'd check the turn with a J, it's a fold.


If you choose to play on, will you fold for one bet on the river? If not, raising doesn't change your investment risk provided you'd fold to a bet on the river. A raise makes Ac and Kc draws pay double and may get the best hand to fold. Barring the fold, against most lineups I prefer raising to calling, but you'd have to be convincing about it. Make it casual. Also, if you wouldn't raise a medium flush here, don't raise against perceptive opponents.


If you call (my third choice) AND a fourth flush card lands AND the SB bets AND the other two players fold, you have to consider raising. For the bluff to work, it requires the perfect opponent. It's a once-a-month kind of thing, but with a 9.5 BB pot and the right opponent, you can take the shot.

The copied text didn't show up in the above post.


"Ok" accepts the preflop call as a given.


The paragraph starting "with 7.5 BB" starts the turn discussion.