Stupid river call?

[bvaughn]

I seem to have a really hard time laying down big overpairs when it is pretty clear that I'm beat. How easy should it be for me to lay this hand down?

When the SB bet, I gave it no credit at all. SB was very LAG pre and post-flop so his bet could mean anything or nothing.

I have no PT stats on UTG, and really didn't have a good read on him. When he raised, my first instinct was a 9. BUT, when I thought about what he might think I have - I talked myself into calling. The way I played the hand looked like a flush draw to a thinking player (maybe). Raise after a bunch of limpers could mean solid hand or Axs or even medium suited connectors. Flop action could look like a free card raise. So I talked myself into thinking he might have AJ - J10 and thinking I had a busted flush draw, and wanting to showdown with the SB LAG only.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

River: (13 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP folds, Hero calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows 8s 9s (three of a kind, nines).
Hero shows Kd Kc (two pair, kings and nines).
Outcome: UTG wins 18 BB. </font>

[naphand]

You are getting 8:1 to make the call, which is probably borderline EV. A little less would make this a fold most of the time, a little more and I think you have to call IMO. This is just about awkward.

Tough with no read, but I don't think your play looks like a flush draw at all, it could easily be overcards, AJ or a good PP like TT. What is important is SB coming alive on the River, and UTG raising. SB could be bluffing or he could be betting a weak J and representing trips. The raise could be a lot of things but I edge towards folding here, SB could easily re-raise behind you. For a single bet, easy call (you have the odds), last to act I would consider a call 2-cold as (i) it is borderline so perhaps not terribly wrong, and (ii) I want to get a read on UTG and I am not looking at any further raises.

I think fold here, with SB behind me. In other situations or with more definitive reads, you can 3-bet or call. You have position, and being able to fold hands like this OTB makes $$ just as much as value bets/raises. I hate to fold this, but if I call I expect to lose (close to 90%), and then there are the times SB 3-bets...