Tell me about this hand

I'm interested in panel's comments on this hand. "tuffguy" is a very tight and solid player.


Game #00000000 - $20/$40 Hold'em - 2001/09/25-00:00:00 (CST) Table "Jamaica" (real money) -- Seat 1 is the button

Seat 1: Angelina ($1,924 in chips)

Seat 5: D@m@st3R ($1,176 in chips)

Seat 6: abc99 ($2,691.50 in chips)

Seat 7: cplayer ($800 in chips)

Seat 8: tuffguy ($770 in chips)

Seat 9: Ibedbeatyou ($2,760 in chips)

D@m@st3R: Post Small Blind ($10)

abc99 : Post Big Blind ($20)

cplayer : Sit out

Dealing...

Dealt to Angelina [ Kh ]

Dealt to Angelina [ Ac ]

tuffguy: Raise ($40)

Ibedbeatyou: Fold

Angelina: Raise ($60)

D@m@st3R: Fold

abc99 : Call ($40)

tuffguy : Call ($20)

*** FLOP *** : [ Ad As Jh ]

abc99 : Check

tuffguy : Check

Angelina: Bet ($20)

abc99 : Fold

tuffguy : Call ($20)

*** TURN *** : [ Ad As Jh ] [ Qd ]

tuffguy : Check

Angelina: Check

*** RIVER *** : [ Ad As Jh Qd ] [ Js ]

tuffguy : Bet ($40)

Angelina: Call ($40)


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

"You don't know Ange. She raises you, you stay raised." - Piesang

Angelina,


Considering you can only lose to AQ and you'll chop if the other player has AJ, I would bet on the River. The check on the turn is okay. The Q might scare him off if you bet, but then the pot is $200 which isn't bad, so taking it there is okay. I think you have to raise him on the River. If he calls you take another $40 otherwise he folds, you win, and he doesn't see your cards. What did he end up having?

Angelina,


Please don't expect any intelligent or coherent comments from ANY male age 8-80 who has viewed your website before answering your post! :o)


hillbilly-

Well, FWIW,


I like the 3-bet and the flop action. The turn check is fine if you think he might bluff and you could be beat here.


A river call is of course correct. I think a river raise is a -EV play. I really don't see many hands he can have that he will call a raise and you win. If he has AK or AJ, you split, if he has AQ, QQ or JJ (QQ/JJ not likely since he probably would have folded QQ on the flop and there are 2 jacks on the board), you lose. The only hand he could have that you beat is KQs (but would he raise preflop with this hand ?). He could have called for a gut-shot on the flop and bet his Q after you showed weakness on the turn. But this is a long-shot. Or a smaller ace but then again, you said he was very tight and solid.


Hope you took it.


Nicolas Fradet (ThePrince)

I am tempted to say your river call is marginal, but I don't want't to hear it from everyone /images/smile.gif


Flop and turn are almost automatic (imho).


Here's the river:


$180+$10+$40-$3 in the pot, or $227.


Odds opponent is bluffing - virtually zero.

So you are paying $40 for a shot at $115, or just under 3-1.


Here are his hands -


AK - 3 ways

AQ - 3 ways

JJ - 1 way


So if he it unlikely (one-third of the time or less) to bet just an ace here (including AK), you should fold. If he will bet an ace, or bluff, call. Since you checked the turn, I would lean towards calling more, but I don't think folding is out of the question.


Raising is out of the question, as he won't fold an ace, and will reraise with JJ and maybe AQ.


Hope you split.


Dan Z.

You're right, the website is definitely of more interest than the hand. A raise was certainly in order.

He didn<t check raise the flop because the blind didn't call .

"Odds opponent is bluffing - virtually zero."


why can't her opponent have pocket K's, pocket Q's, or pocket 10's for that matter and take one card off for the small bet on the flop? Then the turn was checked thru.....

Why can't opponent have TT or KK?

Good question. They could, but I see no reason for KK to bet - unless they know Angelina would fold QQ or an ace. This is very unlikely.

Would TT take a card off here? From a solid player? No way.


Because Angelina checked the turn (wisely), her opponent is almost certainly smart enough to know she will be more inclined to call because she showed weakness. This is why his bet is almost certainly not a bluff - he expects a call from anything that isn't junk. He has to have KK or better to have stayed in, and this hand won't get called by a worse hand. He would get the other KK to fold, but this is too thin a chance given the pot size to be worth it. He is also aware that she may check AK on the turn, as this is the best play, and a very likely hand for her.


There is also the theory he has KQ. But we can rule this out. Angelina could easily have AA, JJ or 3 aces, and he would not call in the flop to hit a gutshot for a 2nd best hand.


This is why I say the bet is almost certainly not a bluff, and Angelina has a marginal call on the river. Probably best to make it, but folding isn't a lousy idea.


Dan Z.

Preflop:

First off does tuffguy’ is failure to cap mean anything. Personally with any genuine hand, I would feel its my responsibility to make the big blind pay the max to see the flop, but maybe tuffguy is different.


Flop. AAJ

Tuffguy check calls the flop. You don’t describe him as aggressive, so I assume this he might play this way with any two cards he wasn’t folding here.


Turn:AAJQ

I reckon that your ahead about two thirds of the time here. I do not think you can safely fold to a check raise, so its likely a push between checking and betting. Note that if he is so tight he is folding hands like KK and QJ on the flop, then he is also folding QQ.


River:AAJQJ

Call. This looks like any ace or JJ. I reckon your loosing about 20% of the time and splitting the other 80%. Raising achieves the same effect as giving him $16.

I agree. No way you raise on the river. Even if he does only have KK as someone suggested (which he probably would have 4-bet preflop), he should fold to the raise. You have no chance of making money by raising here.


As for the rest of the hand, the play is fine. I wouldn't have checked the turn, but I am now convinced that this was correct given the situation.

5 handed, even tough players sometimes stick around with weakish hands. So I'd bet the turn hoping to get called often by hands like KQ, even KJ. But if you think tuffguy is unlikely to stick around with those, checking is okay.

My bad. I failed to notice how short thw game was. Angelina played it fine, though. A river fold seems to be a bad idea.

If he has QQ, she wins.

yeah -- there's just no way you can fold there (even in a full game, IMHO)

Ms. Jolie:


Since you don't post here that often, I want you to know that I am still on tilt from a 15/30 hand last spring where I limped with 8-8, you raised with 910s, the flop came 8-J-x, it went bet/raise/reraise/cap and you stroked a 7 on the turn. EEEE-yow.


I like the way you played that hand and I like the way you play this one. Against the typical PP chasers and hoovers I would bet the turn, but based on your description, I like the check and call on the river best.


I like your style, even though you include a self-aggrandizing quote from "Piesang" in your post (very Hellmuth-esque of you).


Rock on.


SW

I still think a raise is marginal at best.

Thanks for the responses.


I'm a bit surprised, I must say, a lot of players think very differently than I do, I thank you all for helping me improve my game.


First, let's not forget that this is a late position situation, even though the opener is very tight, he can still have a somwhat broader range of hands than the esteemed panel suggested, something like 44/A4s/QJo, he is two off the button. I would 3bet him there with something like 66/A8s/KQo/TJs or better and he knows it. I expect him to be somewhat tenacious if it gets headsup postflop as the pot is not small anymore.


Folding the boat on my part is out of the question and I would not do it even against an utg opener, it's simply bad poker.


The question is, was I correct to check the turn? I did a short study on the situation where I do bet the turn, here it is in Excel format:


http://www.fekali.com/angelina/AKvsTuffguy.xls


Using Excel (or compatible), you will be able tweak weights of the particular hands (Would he flat-call the flop with KT? If you think that is unlikely, give that hand less weight, say 25%), see how the end result (total EV on this hand) changes. Or you might change the win/loss figures on turn and river, if you think the opponent would play it differently than I suggested (cBC means check-Bet-Call). I think you might find it interesting.


Leaving everything at 100% I come up with EV of 4.72 big bets for betting the turn (keep in mind that a good chunk of this was earned by 3betting preflop and flopping trips). Those that suggested folding on the river, try setting the weight to 0% for TT/KQ or worse and observe the EV result. Remember, EV for folding is $0.


Now before I do the version (I need a few hours) for the check on the turn, do you think we can make more by checking?


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

You'd three-bet with JTs on the button vs. a tight open-raiser from 2 off the button?


And I'm not asking in the snide, sarcastic, "what the hell are you talking about, you fish" manner that is so popular around here?


I'm asking in the naive, worshipful, "teach me, teach me" manner. Okay? Seriously, is that to cover your other three-bets, based mainly on position, to keep him from trying to steal from there in the future, or simply because you think it's likely you have the best hand?


Hope you don't mind sharing. I never get up to your limits anyway. Thanks.

Whenever we talk minimums (JTs is my minimum to 3bet here), we are talking hands that are close (to $O EV) or that figure to lose a tiny bit. Yes, it's a balancing issue, going a notch lower on your minimums will maximize EV of the big pairs, no wonder why the sexiest man alive David S. (yes, smart is sexy) advises to occasionally open utg with 76s (clearly a loser utg) and such to boost the magic powers of Albanian Airlines.


I don't worry much about JTs anyway, yes, I'm probably losing on this hand when 3betting a tightish opener, but the EV loss is negligible as this specific hand comes around less often than AA and is quite a hand when against stealers, even when they are somewhat tight.


This is all assuming one is pitted against thinking and observing opponents. Against deadbrains any balancing strategy is probably a waste of effort, time and EV.


Angelina Fekali

Studying People Inc.

Ljubljana, Slovenia

http://www.fekali.com/angelina

Dan,


If checked the turn in this spot, it would be to protect against a checkraise by a better hand AND to possibly induce a bluff on the river, I would never fold on the end.


Mike