Live losing streaks

[1800GAMBLER]

This is my attempt at covering up my bitching about my own bad luck, bad beats and losing streak by trying to make it into a question.

Anyhow, i've hit my first major losing streak in just under 1 year of poker, i'm roughly 400BBs down at the 15/30 a.k.a $12000. The bankroll is still fine for now, but this makes me really curious of how players can handle a losing streak for such a long period of time live.

Before every chips in with how it's a lot more likely it's my own play rather than a losing streak, my past week has been spent reread, studying, posting hands in the chat room, discussing hands/this streak with respected posters reviewing a 1000 of my own hands at each stage of my losing streak and also changed my party and empire screen name mid streak, yes, paranoia. I'm also sure that right now i'm playing the best poker i ever have been.

BTW, for the still none believers here's Risk of Ruin for 400bb at 1.5bb/100h (estimated MIN win rate) SB of 18bb/100h:

400 = -(18^2/2*1.5)*lnX = 2.4%!

I play 6 - 8 15/30 tables, getting roughly 520 hands per hour, 17 times more per hour than a live player. I've played roughly 2 hours a day over the last 6 days since this started making this a 6000 streak or in terms of live play, 208 hours or 100 days or 3 months!

Now if i assume my most likely win rate in this game that's going to take another 52 online hours to gain back, or 871 hours of live play. 9 months. Meaning once i have gained all the BBs back from the losing streak it's equal to a year dry patch live.

Thinking back to all the books which don't recommend becoming a poker professional when you had to play live i can very much understand why now. I think i'd end it with borrowing some rope. Just kidding.

Anyhow, any long term posters who only play live have any experiences to share? Any of you have nightmares of the day variance comes to get you? Anyone want to give me a hug?

[Baulucky]

IMO there is no entity alive that can play COMPETENTLY 6-8 tables of poker against moderate opponents. But WTF do I know?.

Did you consider in your ROR calculations that, when you play 8 tables at the same time your SD almost triples?. And I'm sure your EV is a lot lower than playing just 2 tables...

Maybe calling 1800GAMBLER is not a bad idea.

[1800GAMBLER]

Firstly, there are a few players who are regulary playing 6 - 8 tables.

Secondly, I did consider that my SB triples! Guess what! It doesn't! As you can see i took win rate and sd per 100 hands. Next.

Thirdly, I'm english so i can't call that number!

[Baulucky]

OK. Keep at it then. Post again when you are down another 400 BBs.

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, I did consider that my SB triples! Guess what! It doesn't! As you can see i took win rate and sd per 100 hands. Next.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only your math is wrong, but you are a clear case of why the English do not have hemmoroids.

[stupidsucker]

I would recomend staying at 15-30 and try playing just 2 tables at once. I am not a long time poster, and not a poker guru. I am however prone to the same mistakes. When I play a SnG one at a time I do very well.It's easy. When I play 4 at a time my stats drop about 10% ITM with much bigger streaks.

I have a lot of trouble playing 4 limit rings games at a time. Its so much for my little brain to take in at once, and I cant get a grasp on my opponents play.

If you still have 2-300 BBs for 15-30 and you are sure you have the skills to remain there, then stay, but try it with just 1-2 tables at a time. If you dont have the proper bankroll then I highly recomend dropping down to as low as 5-10 if you have to.

If I am wrong then I am sure someone here will set you straight. Too many tables has been a mistake of my own.

[sthief09]

I think I read in a previous post that you're young, like 18 or 19 or something. I'm 20 and struggle with immaturity in my game, especially when it comes to tilting. If I'm having a bad session I might not bet a river that I normally would or I'd limp with a hand I'd normally raise or fold. It's not full-blown tilt, and for a while I was convinced I was tilt-proof, but those subtle deviations from your normal play can cause you to lose a little here and a little there. Is it possible that you're tilting a little?

if you're RoR was lower then you could credit it to something else, but eventually someone has to be a victim of the 2.6%. unfortunately it had to be you.

sorry that didn't really answer your question, but I thought I'd add that in.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey all.

The reason i don't put this down to multi-tabling is due these reasons.

1. I logged 25k hands as a strong winning player over 10/20 6 max 4 tables. Each table gets dealt just short of 100 hands/hour there, so that's 400 hands. Before that i multitabled 5 $800 - $500 NL tables for 2 months.

2. I don't think i give up all that much when going from 4 tables to 8 tables. I agree from 1 to 4 is a lot, however i don't believe the same for 4 - 8.

3. I have more details notes and more detailed reads than i could ever have by just watching on at least 4 players out of 10 at every table thanks to PokerTracker.

Hey stheif.

I'm 19. I don't struggle with being numb with the money. I see all decisions as expected value and imagine the outcome of each decision over 10000 hands etc. High stakes NL did that to me. I don't think i'm mildly tilting but it's hard to tell, i think if i was tilting i'd be checking behind on the turn a lot more when you fear that checkraise but yet know betting is still right.

The variance for that win rate is huge, equal to 6 max limit. I think it's down to that.

[bunky9590]

Hey Jay,

I can only post my thought/feelings on the subject.

I had the largest downturn of my career about 3 months ago.
it was just over 200BB.

My largest downslide live in 20-40 was about 4 years ago and that was 150BB. That was sheer hell.

It seemed like I couldn't hit and all draws against me would complete, for Big Pots. It felt like quicksand, the more I fought, the worse it got.

I finally took a month off. Two weeks I never even thought about poker (except for the nightmares). The other two weeks were spent on reading and reading material and positive reinforcement of my abilities.

After I came back from the sabbatical, I played break even poker for about a week. (But I wasn't losing) The next two weeks after that were very good weeks. The SD swung the other direction and in a very good way. It still took over 2 months to completely rebound to my original bankroll.

The online swing came back much quicker. i switched to NL to lower my variance, and it worked. In a big way. So while i have never played 6-8 tables, I can imaging that that should (lessen the swings) if anything to balance out the SD as more hand are getting played.

I hope it ends for you soon, as you have helped my online NL play through your posts.

I don't have the stats you are playing but you may want to tighten the standards, and become a bit more aggressive with the bigger starting hands. (Just a general statement, as it helped me get back on the rebound)

if you need anything, shoot me a PM.

Best of luck in the future.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO there is no entity alive that can play COMPETENTLY 6-8 tables of poker against moderate opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. However, it is also true that GAMBLER can play profitably on 6-8 tables at the current Party 15/30 tables. Your two conclusions are not mutually exclusive. The Party 15/30 can easily be beaten for 1BB/100 playing straight ABC with good table selection.

Before you start getting brash and cocky with your responses, maybe you should do a little research on this guy. What leaks, exactly, would you say GAMBLER has? Due to a recent proposed staking deal, I've done a lot of research on this guy, and I will say that I think 1.5BB/100 is a conservative estimate for a win rate, given the games right now. There is a very clear, quick, consistent, simple thought process that makes him capable of playing so many tables.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey. Thanks for the support from both.

I have a stop loss at another $3k. At that point the bankroll isn't looking too healthly. Then i'll be coming back over to the $500 - $800 NL games for the lower variance while my bankroll and myself fixs up.

It's weird how much sense a lot of old books i read make now. Two things Mason said which i thought were far from the truth were, 'only 1% of people who take up poker will become a professional' and from Dynasty's post, 'it takes 3 years of poker before you'll know if you have what it takes.'

[Baulucky]

Point taken. I was responding to a brash, arrogant and faulty response, but I didn't have any excuse to behave the same way.

I have no knowledge of his poker skill or leaks, but I'm 100% sure that if any genius attacks 8 limit tables with a 300 BB bankroll, he is destined to blow up. While his EV rate per table may (very big if) hold, his SD will be 2.83 times higher, requiring a much bigger bankroll.

No wonder the British lost the Empire. (I couln't resist).

[1800GAMBLER]

You are wrong. Very very wrong. IT'S SD PER 100 HANDS. You don't need to have a higher bankroll because you are multitabling. The only reason to maybe have a higher bankroll is so you always have enough money on each table.

[Baulucky]

OK. My mistake. Please increase to 12 tables to speed your recovery.

[Gremlin]

Being wrong twice and looking like an idiot twice isn't enough for you is it?

[Baulucky]

Another idiot heard from.

[stoxtrader]

I read and respect your posts, I think we've also sat together and I respect your play. It sounds to me like you have been hit with a ridiculous run of tough cards. My advice is to continue pressing at the 15 if the bankroll allows it and then drop down when you no longer have 200-300 BB for the 15.... (I'm assuming as low as 200 is ok if you are willing to drop in stakes...)

this way you give yourself the best chance at maximizing wins given your expectation, while still minimizing ROR by being willing to drop down.

Also, I'm assuming you get a rake rebate? you certainly should - david ross is my affiliate and that percentage of rake back adds nicely to the earn.

Let me know if you'd like to exchange a few hand histories - also Orange heat is a very very good player, and he shared with me last night that he is winning 4% of his hands over the last 15k. YUCK!

best,
nick.

[1800GAMBLER]

I'm winning about 6% yet it's the big pots that are swinging the wrong way. The losing streak seems to be doing everything it can do kill me, improving my hand when drawing dead, not improving in big pots, improving their hands in big pots, i could go on, but it's boring.

I'm getting 20% of my rake back, which gives me more than min wage per year even if i breakeven.

ATM i'm on a crash course. Since 10/20 6m has a huge variance stopping at $6k is pointless, so i'm playing up untill i hit $4k then switching to 5/10 6m. After breaking even over 1500 hands last night and having two big pots rivered away today it shouldn't take long to be at 5/10 /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Thanks for the encouragement.

[OrangeHeat]

I am there officially today.... BR is too short for comfort.....Last 15,000 hands I went from a 3BB/100 winner (over 120K hands) too a -1.6 BB/100 loser....I have never seen a run like this before.

Time for 5/10 for awhile. I would fund it back up for the 15 but I spent a lot on the new house and I will have to wait until it closes to move funds....stupid anti-terror money laundering laws. Thats ok my brain could use the break.

GL,

Orange

[KingSix]

Not a long time poster, but in just over 2 years of playing live 5 days a week, each and every week, my worst was when I lost my first 200BB bankroll. I wasn't as good as I thought I was, and ended up losing 32 of 34 days over a two month period. Bad thing was, that I didn't have any horrible 50BB+ days, rather it was just a constant and slow bleed.

I took 2 full months off and really read up and thought about my game, focusing on plugging some leaks. I was able to come back with a 500BB Bankroll and have steadily built that up to about 800BB over the last few months(I've only been putting about 25% of my winnings back into the BR). It has allowed me to weather my most recent streak over 4 weeks in late March and April where I won twice in 4 weeks. Fortunately it turned for me and I haven't had a losing week since mid April. (Although my $6 profit this last week was pretty sad!!) /images/graemlins/blush.gif

King

[turnipmonster]

hey jay, sounds like you're running real bad and that sucks. when I'm running bad I play shorter sessions and write angst ridden songs. you play guitar, right? write some angst ridden songs in d minor, the saddest of all keys (lol).

also, make sure you're not paying off too much and stuff. a lot of times when I'm running bad I make it worse by calling when I know I am beat. obviously you don't want to overdo it.

good luck and keep your chin up. take a trip to amsterdam to recharge or something. sometimes taking time away from something can give you a new perspective, which can be a very good thing. when I was younger, I thought all my problems in music would go away if I could just practice another couple of hours. sometimes there's more to it than just working harder.

--turnipmonster

[ddwarbuck]

i've been playing about a year, finally having consistant winning weeks. but it doesn't take a poker pro to ask why in the hell would you want to play soo many tables. is this ego? maybe see a shrink..... it can't be good money management, sure not enough time to read other players, time your bets to show power, put in a bluff here or there with proper timing.....dude....it just sucks.....sounds like sickness rather than poker.....at eighteen....where ya getting 13k...if you were my son...i'd nip this quick...where ya think your gonna be in 2 yrs

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't take a poker pro to ask why in the hell would you want to play soo many tables. is this ego?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm missing the relationship between ego and playing more tables!?

[ QUOTE ]
it can't be good money management

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very good for momey management since it increases the winning $/hour.

[ QUOTE ]
sure not enough time to read other players

[/ QUOTE ]

PT.

[ QUOTE ]
time your bets to show power

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That must be worth about $5 extra per hour, you think the overlay from extra table doesn't cover that?

[ QUOTE ]
put in a bluff here or there with proper timing

[/ QUOTE ]

That's still possible.

[ QUOTE ]
at eighteen....where ya getting 13k

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker winnings.

[ QUOTE ]
if you were my son...i'd nip this quick

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like ego.

[ QUOTE ]
where ya think your gonna be in 2 yrs

[/ QUOTE ]

University. Next year i'm taking a gap year to earn money and invest it, i'm doing that in NZ. Then it's back to schooling.

[1800GAMBLER]

Thanks for the support. The guitar has had more use over this streak than ever. I got the electric lady jimi hendrix song book so i've been struggling my way through that.

I've also recieved a lot of private messages in support. Thanks to everyone who sent them and replied here. It's nice to have the encouragement and suggestions to fix this. I'm having 2 more days off then i'll hit the 15/30 again. I'll bump this thread in 2 months to compare how it's gone.

Thank you all again.

[ChicagoTroy]

Very astute observations; sorry you had to get the experience to make them.

Mike Caro did some computer modeling a while back that showed that a professional player could expect to experience a losing YEAR of poker over a 20 year, 40 hr./wk. career. Call him up for a hug /images/graemlins/wink.gif

It sounds like you have some aversion to dropping down to 10-20 for a short time. Assuming you are playing your best poker, and your recent results notwithstanding it sounds like that's probably the case, make sure this isn't a pride issue. Dropping in limits isn't because you can't handle 15-30, it's because you dramatically reduce your ROR and can simultaneously reduce your variance. Both good things for a guy who's playing well but running bad.

JMO.

[astroglide]

guys, please lay off the subject of 6-8 tabling 15/30. however well specific individuals may or may not be able to pull it off, i can assure you that it is entirely possible - without a rake rebate. i can also personally assure you that he is not multi-tabling for ego purposes.

[astroglide]

you just mean -1.6bb/100 for THOSE 15K HANDS, right?

[turnipmonster]

while I am almost sure jay has no problem multitabling 6-8 tables, I do think for a lot of folks it's a completely valid criticism. lots of things are possible, that doesn't mean anyone and everyone can do them well.

while there are lots of people that can multitable well (yourself, for example), I am sure there are plenty that can't, and plenty that find it not very much fun at all (myself, for example).

--turnipmonster

[astroglide]

i agree, i was just addressing the more generic observations about the "impossibility" of it.

[nykenny]

1800G,

since you seem to know what you are talking about (hence doing), i will just give you a hug... /images/graemlins/smile.gif man to man, no gay feeling please... hehe.

yes, losing 400BB sucks. I am in a losing streak myself and i can totally relate to your pain. While i didn't play much in May and kind of had a bad month (winning not much), my June performance (or counter-performance) has been terrible so far. 2 monster losses in only 6 days! -$2700 (2.5hrs) was a nice way to open up the month's poker log; but ending the first week with a crazy -$4800 loss is just not tasteful for my beefed up ego.

now that i am a losing player (for the month), i'd like to think i am simply getting out played (ya right, by my fishes, over-playing bad pair or bad draw, semi-bluffing-LOL-with cheeze all at the wrong time and still get lucky on the river) and out drawn (5 AA, and 4 KK tanked in one night losing mostly on river, grrr) a lot.

but sure, there was my own contribution in all of this, but 10%? maybe 20% tops? so I could have had a -4000 instead of a -4800 loss. I will tell you, 1800G, sometimes bad luck causes some bad play, you will probably still play well above the level of your fishes, but you quality of game surely is likely to suffer when you running cold like liquid nitrogen.

anyhow, let me go move my car before i get a ticket, that would make my wallet another $100 lighter.

all the best,

Kenny

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have the stats you are playing but you may want to tighten the standards, and become a bit more aggressive with the bigger starting hands. (Just a general statement, as it helped me get back on the rebound)

[/ QUOTE ]

good advice (simple, genuine, but very good). i will give it a try too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

thanks.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Dropping in limits isn't because you can't handle 15-30, it's because you dramatically reduce your ROR and can simultaneously reduce your variance. Both good things for a guy who's playing well but running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

while stepping down has its merits, how do you know "running bad" will continue? i think the only proper way of using the phrase "running bad" is "have been running bad", agree?

Kenny

[ChicagoTroy]

You don't. The cards have no memory so changing limits isn't going to affect your next swing being up, down, or even. In the event you continue downward, however, the roll will last longer at a lower limit (with certain assumptions). A bad stretch could last longer than your bankroll, so minimizing the hit you take seems like a good idea.

There's also the possibility that bad play has something to do with the swing, and playing in easier, lower limit games might illuminate whether that's part of the problem. Doesn't sound like the case here, but for most folks a good idea.