More Euro 2004 bets...

[Iceman]

Betting on the two finalists, in either order, these seem like really good prices:

France/Italy: 10-1
France/England: 10-1
France/Portugal: 16-1
France/Spain: 16-1
England/Italy: 22-1
England/Portugal: 28-1
England/Spain: 28-1
Portugal/Spain: 16-1

I might bet all of those...I think this bookmaker messed up in setting those prices (those prices are almost all higher than the other books).

Next, England 9-1 to win all three of their group games. They're about 3-1 to win just against France, so I think the 9-1 is good value.

Portugal/Spain 9-10 to qualify from Group A. Italy/Sweden 13/8 to qualify from Group C. These are better prices than betting Spain or Sweden to be "best in their group without the favorite".

Finally, buy Italy at 45.5 (win=100, 2nd=75, lose semis=50, lose quarters=25, out first round=0). They're almost certain to win their group and their quarterfinal matchup will be against #2 in Group D.

[dogsballs]

Is this premierbet again? I might have to open an acct there.

Dunno about the finalists bets, but these others all look great:

[ QUOTE ]
Next, England 9-1 to win all three of their group games. They're about 3-1 to win just against France, so I think the 9-1 is good value.

Portugal/Spain 9-10 to qualify from Group A. Italy/Sweden 13/8 to qualify from Group C. These are better prices than betting Spain or Sweden to be "best in their group without the favorite".


[/ QUOTE ]

[La Brujita]

I used to spend a good amount of time gambling on soccer then decided to quit when I was spending so much time on poker but I will jump back in for Euro 2004. I am currently going to pick my spots betting on Spain and against Germany. If I find decent prices I may bet on France as well. Is there an official Euro 2004 thread (I am new to the forum).

Best regards

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Next, England 9-1 to win all three of their group games. They're about 3-1 to win just against France, so I think the 9-1 is good value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now 10-1 on Ladbrokes, Stanleybet, or Totesport.

[ QUOTE ]
Portugal/Spain 9-10 to qualify from Group A.
Italy/Sweden 13/8 to qualify from Group C. These are better prices than betting Spain or Sweden to be "best in their group without the favorite".

[/ QUOTE ]

Those were Premierbet, but stanjames.com has an even better price on Italy and Sweden: 9/5.

Premierbet has the best prices on the other two groups: France and England qualifying at 10/11, and 13/8 that Holland and Czech Republic qualify.

Here's some more:

France to win all group matches: 18/5 on Stanleybet.

Switzerland to score less than 3 goals: 11/10 on Sportingbet.

Greece to score less than 3 goals: 6/5 on Sportingbet.

[dogsballs]

there's no official thread; just Iceman putting up a few posts when he finds bets so far. I ain't deep enough into looking for bets on it - yet...

Just bookmark this thread (at the bottom of page) and check back in this "Other Gambling Games" forum every couple of days for any new threads.

[dogsballs]

Why particularly bet against Germany?

In the big tourneys they always seem to get things together enough to bludgeon out results for themselves. The past World cup is an example...written off beforehand as not talented or deep enough, but finalists anyway.

[dogsballs]

here's one to look at, perhaps.

Van Nistelrooij E/W for golden boot. He's +900 outright for the boot at premierbet.

The dutch squad have just announced they'l be playing 4-3-3 after consulting with teh top players, with Van N being sole striker. With Latvia in their group, that could be a repeat of the 6-0 the dutch dished out to Scotland in the playoff qualification game, plus they should go deep into the competition.

[Atropos]

Hi,
I don't bet on soccer normally, only some small bets with friends and stuff, but as a european who grew up as a total soccer maniac, watching every games he could see i can only advise you:
- do not bet against germany, they are a tournament team, and they never finish as expected
- skip all those bets with france in the finals, the france team has no unity at all
- do not bet on van nistelroy as the top scorer, the team lacks unity, and wont go too far

Remember my words, even if I have no clue of betting, I still hope I will be right somehow.

[Atropos]

Sorry, you can bet on van Nistelroy if you want, because either Netherlands/Czechia will win the tournament.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,
I don't bet on soccer normally, only some small bets with friends and stuff, but as a european who grew up as a total soccer maniac, watching every games he could see i can only advise you:
- do not bet against germany, they are a tournament team, and they never finish as expected

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. They usually finish well because they have strong teams, not because of any trend to being a "tournament team" (i.e. unlike Spain or England). In the last world cup, the Germans only reached the final because most of the other strong teams self-destructed, and because they only had to face Ireland, Cameroon, Saudi Arabia, Paraguay, USA, and South Korea on their way to the final.

[ QUOTE ]
- skip all those bets with france in the finals, the france team has no unity at all

[/ QUOTE ]

No other team can match its scoring threats.

[ QUOTE ]
- do not bet on van nistelroy as the top scorer, the team lacks unity, and wont go too far

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Dutch finish second they get Italy in the quarterfinals, which should be it for them. Unless they beat Latvia 5-0 or something...

[La Brujita]

Spain Russia was a good result for me. I have mixed feelings betting on the Germany Holland game because both teams are in a bit of trouble. Right now I am on the fence what to do.

I like France over England tomorrow but I still have nightmares of France Senegal opening up WC2002 which cost me a bit.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Spain Russia was a good result for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Spanish didn't impress me, and I think they'll run into trouble once they're out of the group phase.

[ QUOTE ]
I have mixed feelings betting on the Germany Holland game because both teams are in a bit of trouble. Right now I am on the fence what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

What to do: bet the Czechs to win the group. I'd avoid the Germany-Holland game also - no telling which team will suck more.

[ QUOTE ]
I like France over England tomorrow but I still have nightmares of France Senegal opening up WC2002 which cost me a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

The French team is very strong on paper, but we saw how far that got them last time! If they play at their best they're unbeatable, but since we don't know which France will show up, the 1998/2000 or the 2002 I think England are better than the odds they're being given.

[La Brujita]

I was very lucky betting a small amount on France. Unfortunately I can't watch most of the games, I had to watch Spain Russia on a live internet feed.

I don't love Greece-Spain (just because of recent past history) or Spain-Portugal for obvious reasons.

Aren't the Czech Republic underachievers in many recent tourneys?

I am in a bit of a quandry for the rest of this first round frankly.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't love Greece-Spain (just because of recent past history) or Spain-Portugal for obvious reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm leaving Spain-Greece alone...Spain was unimpressive and Greece was in their first game, not to mention the qualifier you're talking about, so who knows?

If Spain does beat Greece, they will rest all the real guys against Portugal, so I'd wait until the result of the Spain-Greece match before wagering on that.

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't the Czech Republic underachievers in many recent tourneys?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't personally give that any meaning at all - what happened in 1992 or 1986 or whatever has absolutely zero meaning to the team today. Look at the opposite for a minute - a common mistake bettors make is to overvalue past tournament success of teams that suck right now...like Germany.

[ QUOTE ]
I am in a bit of a quandry for the rest of this first round frankly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm liking Latvia's chances to keep it close to Holland and Germany, so if they look good against the Czechs, take them on the Asian line in those games.

Sweden on the moneyline against Denmark, and then on the Asian line against Italy.

Avoid favorites like the plague - until the quarterfinals.

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't personally give that any meaning at all - what happened in 1992 or 1986 or whatever has absolutely zero meaning to the team today. Look at the opposite for a minute - a common mistake bettors make is to overvalue past tournament success of teams that suck right now...like Germany.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with you re: older tournaments but I was talking about qualifying for WC 2002 and Olympics 2000 where they struggled in both.

I know very little about Latvia.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
Avoid favorites like the plague - until the quarterfinals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite this advice, I may slip a few on Italy over Dk tomorrow am.. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Avoid favorites like the plague - until the quarterfinals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite this advice, I may slip a few on Italy over Dk tomorrow am.. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Gronkjaer is out, and a lot of the other best Danes have minor injuries, and I don't see them scoring at all against Italy's strong defense. I think Italy to win at 5/6 is pretty safe. I think England and France are safe bets also against Croatia and Switzerland. But I'd be wary of backing Portugal, Spain, Holland, or Germany, even against weak opponents, especially for long lay odds or conceding 1 - 1.5 goals.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't personally give that any meaning at all - what happened in 1992 or 1986 or whatever has absolutely zero meaning to the team today. Look at the opposite for a minute - a common mistake bettors make is to overvalue past tournament success of teams that suck right now...like Germany.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with you re: older tournaments but I was talking about qualifying for WC 2002 and Olympics 2000 where they struggled in both.

I know very little about Latvia.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think their more recent record is strong though. In two games against the Dutch in qualifying, they won 3-1 at home and tied 1-1 in Rotterdam. They beat the French 2-0 in a friendly. And they have a great midfield and multiple scoring threats. (After all, if we're talking about WC 2002, let's talk about France, Portugal, and Italy's performances!)

[dogsballs]

so much for that one. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[dogsballs]

Told ya..!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif Team's off to a to a flyer.

Larsson probably already getting offers from spanish and italian clubs while he's still in the showers.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Told ya..!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif Team's off to a to a flyer.

Larsson probably already getting offers from spanish and italian clubs while he's still in the showers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have taken your advice on the Larsson each way...

If Sweden wins group C, then France will play Italy in the semis.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
I should have taken your advice on the Larsson each way...

If Sweden wins group C, then France will play Italy in the semis.

[/ QUOTE ]

..if italy make it... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. Actually, I have little doubt they'll get through the group.


We know germany, but which Dutch team are going to show up this morning?....Germany are 2/1 to win against Holland (11/10), and 6/1 to claim a 1-0 victory.

The draw at 11/5 is maybe more tempting than either of these, but I'll probably just avoid this one altogether.

[La Brujita]

Anyone have any last minute thoughts on Spain-Greece? I don't like the price very much at all betting for Spain but I have a little new poker money to throw around /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I am just going to resist and stay away from the match.

BTW just in the interests of disclosure, when I bet I just bet small amounts and for fun. I used to bet for a time on sports in larger amounts and did pretty well but quit last year once I started playing poker seriously for the simple reason for me enough gambling was enough.

I do love to bet on soccer and golf so it was hard to resist.

[dogsballs]

Italy's Totti prob out for the sweden game tomorrow.

that england-croatia-france group is totally up in the air now, after croatia held france to the draw, so who knows who'll go through in which spot.

[Iceman]

[ QUOTE ]
Italy's Totti prob out for the sweden game tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suspended for three games - Bulgaria's no problem, but without him they might have trouble with Holland or Czech Republic. If Sweden ties Italy while Denmark beats Bulgaria, then things get interesting. Sweden will only need to tie the Danes to advance on goal difference, and depending on the scores the Danes might advance over Italy even if Italy beats Bulgaria.

[ QUOTE ]
that england-croatia-france group is totally up in the air now, after croatia held france to the draw, so who knows who'll go through in which spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

France can beat Switzerland easily though, so they'll take the group. And England only needs a draw to take second, which they can almost certainly get if they play for.

If Greece beats Russia as expected then Portugal MUST beat Spain to go through...

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
France can beat Switzerland easily though, so they'll take the group. And England only needs a draw to take second, which they can almost certainly get if they play for.

[/ QUOTE ]


Trouble is, england apparently weren't looking so hot vs Swi (I only go by news reports + the uefa highlights subscription I signed up for. You may have actually seen it on tv), while croatia sounded reaonable value for their result. Be interesting anyway.

[JohnShaft]

[ QUOTE ]
Trouble is, england apparently weren't looking so hot vs Swi (I only go by news reports + the uefa highlights subscription I signed up for. You may have actually seen it on tv), while croatia sounded reaonable value for their result. Be interesting anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree Dogs, and I watched both games.
England were an absolute disgrace until the 60th minute when the Swiss unfairly got a player sent off. And I say that despite being English, and having money on them.

Croatia looked dead and buried the first half, and they'd sleep walked both games up to that point. As soon as they went at them, bang 2-1. France's equalizer was also completely unjust (it would have been cleared by the GK barring a French hand).
So Croatia looked better than you'd think, and England were much much worse.

Still I cannot see England losing against Croatia. But I can certainly see a draw.

[dogsballs]

oh man. Just watched the Swe-Italy highlights.

Did you see the goal ibrahimovic scored?! Did you see the goal del Piero almost scored?! ...I thought george best had suddenly reappeared for a moment at either end of the pitch.

I did like the look of the Italian strikers - sharp. A less competent goalie/defence would have let a couple more in no problem.

They should win by at least two vs bulgaria, to ensure the 2nd round (if I'm right that that's what they need to do). Well, 2 might tie things up.

Den-Swe is going to be one to watch.