10-20 hand against tight player.

i dont know how tight he is because this was the first time id seen him but he played very few hands and when he did show something down it was in group 1-3.


tight player is in big blind for this hand. im in the cutoff with QJ. 1 pretty loose player limps from early, i limp, sb calls (okay player), bb raises. immediately im thinking JJ-AA, AKs, possibly AQs.


the flop is Q63 rainbow. sb check, bb bets, ep folds, i raise, sb folds, bb 3 bets it. i call. at this point im thinking if he bets on the turn im gone cause he must have KK, AA, or AQ. he hasnt played tricky at all while ive been watching him, but again, that's only been for a little bit. nevertheless i doesnt seem to me like he would get this frisky with AK, with a board like that it's pretty obvious im raising with a Q.


the turn is a J. he bets and i raise. he calls.


the river is a K. he checks and i check behind.

im wondering if this was a mistake. ATs seems very

unlikely from this guy, so really my only

rational fear could be KK, with an outside chance

of KQs.


would like to hear your thoughts.

"i dont know how tight he is because this was the first time id seen him but he played very few hands and when he did show something down it was in group 1-3."


This can be a little deceptive since hands in Groups 1-3 are more likely to win pots than the other hands. So even a loose player is more likely to show these hands down.

A-T is not probable with a flop of Q-6-3. So his probable hands include A-A, K-K, Q-Q, A-Q and K-Q. He raised pre-flop, bet the flop, re-raised on the flop and bet out on the turn. With Q-Q, he'd probably 3-bet the turn and bet out on the river. This leaves A-A (6 ways) K-K (3 ways) A-Q (8 ways) and K-Q (6 ways). You beat 14 of his hands and lose to 9 of them.


Let's think about what he puts you on. You limped pre-flop so this would rule out, in his mind, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-Q and probably K-Q and K-J. You've raised on the flop and raised on the turn even after he re-raised you on the flop. He has to put you on Q-J, 6-6 or 3-3. Since you raised on the flop, he's more likely to figure you for Q-J than 6-6 or 3-3. Thus, if the king improved his hand, I would think he would have bet the river.


This, coupled with the fact that you are a 14:9 favorite to have him beat, plus the fact that he's slowed down twice (call of your turn raise; check on the river) indicates a bet was in order on the river. I'm thinking he most likely has A-Q or A-A.

i wouldn't have played this hand preflop. if i did i would raise and isolate loose player. but its not strong enough to play in this situation. if i had played it your way. andy is on the money. bet the river!

Are you saying QJo isn't strong enough to play from late position for the bring-in? That seems too tight.


Or are you saying that after you limped (or raised), you wouldn't call the BB's raise?

Excellent post Andy. Do you, or anyone else reading this, go through this sort of analysis at the table? figuring out hand combinations and the odds you're a favorite?


Rob

yes, i'm saying its not strong enough to call. in certain circumstances against certain blinds and certain limpers i may raise here to isolate the loose player. in this situation it seems okay to raise. but i don't think you lose anything by passing in this spot. it will also keep your standard deviation down if you don't like big swings.


its not too tight. in fact its way too lose in a solid games with a solid limper. if the hand was kq,kj,k10s(occasionally w/k10s) its a raise. qj is a hand that just gets you in trouble more than anything else. if you get action after your raise and flop a q or j your probably in trouble. but will also be hard to lay down in a short handed pot. i use this hand to steal blinds from late position with nobody in the pot.

So Andy....When are you writing YOUR new book :-)

Very clever analyzation! This game seems to be getting easier for you!

Again, I agree with your strategy as to the best way to play this hand.

Yes. This is a fairly easy situation (small variety of hands opponent can have), so doing exact or near - exact calculations is pretty easy.


A lot of situations are more complex, too complex to enumerate everything, but doing rough approximations usually point you in the right direction.


Good luck.


Dan Z.