Will Smarty pull it off?

[davidross]

Anyone else excited about the prospect of a triple crown winner?

Everything seems to be in place, but I feel like I've said that many times in the last few years. But there is something different and special about this horse. I think he wins easy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The biggest question is, is he worth a bet? Probably not. No horse is worth a vlaue bet at 2-5. Now if you want to take a flyer and try to catch the exacta cold, that's another thing, but even that isn't a prime betting opportunity.

The random factor - the potential for a wet track - actually works in his favor. The one thing that works against him is the propensity for the Belmont to not have a reasonable early pace. However, even that could be of minimal impact. Because most riders will be concerned about not burning their horses out early, there will be little rush for the lead out of the gate. That should enable Elliot to use Smarty's tractable speed to establish position before the first turn and thus avoid traffic problems.

Nothing in the last two races indicates that he won't have more left in the tank for the last quarter mile than his competition. As for his opposition, for all the talk about Rock Hard Ten's athleticism, his act at the gate in the Preakness may well be repeated today. A lot of people are touting him as the upset horse, but I'd be concerned about behavior. I may put a small wager on a Smarty Jones-Eddington exacta. Eddington had a hideous trip in the Preakness, and he'll go off a better price than Rock Hard Ten.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I'd love to see it. But my hopes are not up.

I had charismatic $10 across in the kentucky derby. That ticket was worth a friggin' bundle. He barely had odds for the preakness, but I bet him anyway. He choked in the bellmont tho.

I also took war emblem for $2 across. Same in the preakness. Choked at bellmont.

Seems the norm.

It's HARD to win the triple crown.

al

[slavic]

The question is can the horse run 1.5 miles? No one knows because in general nobody runs that distance except at the Belmont. He can either do it or he can't and handicapping it is a crap shoot for us. Suffice it to say he isn't a good bet though.

[Clarkmeister]

Dude, Charismatic didn't choke in the Belmont, he broke down. I doubt we'd say Carl Lewis choked in an Olympic race if he broke his leg halfway through. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Al_Capone_Junior]

he still didn't win it tho.

I really would like to see smarty pull it off.

al

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The distance is a white elephant, especially for 3-year olds in the spring. Because of that, the early fractions are usually slow, and the best mile - mile and an eigth horse usually wins.

To me that sets it up perfectly for Smarty. He ran down Purge in Arkansas, he can do it here, too unless he really detests the track. But of course, his record going from tract to track mitigates against that being probab;e.

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
I had charismatic $10 across in the kentucky derby. That ticket was worth a friggin' bundle. He barely had odds for the preakness, but I bet him anyway. He choked in the bellmont tho.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't pick on Charismatic he didn't choke.

I also had Charismatic in the Kentucky for 20 accossed the board and believe it or not I had Lemon Drop Kid for 20 accossed the Board. I was runnin' hot

[JoeU]

Will he pull it off?, I hope so. I've been rooting for this horse since I saw him win the Arkansas Derby. I do believe he can definitely do this. He seems to be heads above the rest of his competition.

The last time I felt this way about a horse that had a chance to pull off the triple was Silver Charm. And he came the closest.

Its either gone be Smarty by alot, or Rock Hard Ten by 1 length.

Thats my prediction, and I'm sticking to it. Definitely not betting on it though. That exacta wouldn't be worth the paper it prints on.

Joe

[jdl22]

they said on NBC that at one point Smarty Jones was at 1-9. That is amazing. Odds have gone down to 1-5.

[Clarkmeister]

I like a cold tri of Smarty, Eddington and RH10. I don't think Purge can get the distance, and picking up 11 pounds and an extra 3 furlongs from his race 2 weeks ago should ensure that he finishes up the track.

Of course, now Purge will win by daylight since I said that. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BeerMoney]

That sucked.. I was really pulling for him. I wanted to cry.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

He ran his race. He pulled away from his major competition entering the lane and got run down in the last 1/16 by a horse who ran the race of his life. Racing's a cruel game. Sort of like poker.

Smarty got rivered.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
He ran his race. He pulled away from his major competition entering the lane and got run down in the last 1/16 by a horse who ran the race of his life. Racing's a cruel game. Sort of like poker.

Smarty got rivered.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, he just ain't a 12f horse.

I think it is of note the sequential quarter times of run by Smarty (approximated with .20 sec/length adjustment).

1st - 24.53
2nd - 24.82
3rd - 23.01
4th - 23.48
5th - 25.08
6th - 27.18

That last quarter isn't the early fractions, that's simply distance limitations. His 3rd and 4th quarters, coupled with the very respectable 5th quarter reaffirm that this is a superb 10f horse and should be a real threat at the end of the year. But hitting the wall like he did really shows that 12f is just beyond him. Hansel, by comparison, ran a 46.60 time to the first half mile, and still was able to come home in a final quarter of :26 to hang on and wire the field.

At the end of the day, he just didn't have it. He ran his heart out and probabaly outran his pedigree to finish as well has he did. But that last quarter is more than just getting tired, that's genes.

The good news is that he looks like he could still be a monster at 10f. His Preakness time slightly faster than Southern Image the day before lends credence to this. As does the fact that given a typical Belmont 10f race yesterday (with the gate halfway on the turn instead of two turns) he would likely have run a sub-2:00 10f. Even on a track as fast as Belmont was yesterday, that's impressive as heck for a 3yo in early June. So I'm psyched for the end of the season if he stays healthy, but I can't blame Elliot for his collapse. That :27.18 final quarter tells the story.

[southerndog]

[ QUOTE ]

1st - 24.53
2nd - 24.82
3rd - 23.01
4th - 23.48
5th - 25.08
6th - 27.18



[/ QUOTE ]
Clarke, I know less about racing than I do about poker, but it looks like he didn't pace himself as well as possible. That's what your splits point to for me. But again, I don't know anything about horse racing. I do know that Alan Webb who ran a recent sub 4-minute HighSchool mile ran his quarter splits right around 59s each. The key to his superb time was an even pace, and probably a TON of TALENT!

[Clarkmeister]

No doubt his splits weren't ideal, but while his 3rd and 4th quarters were fast indeed, a quarter in over :27 by a horse of his calibur is essentially inexplicable other than the fact that he simply isn't bred to go that far. I mentioned another horse, Hansel, in my post. Hansel went the first 2 quarters of the race in :23.2 and :23.4, but was still able to come home in :26 flat. :27.18 is literally walking home.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You may be right, but I've heard the "breeding" argument for as long as I can remember, and I just don't buy it 100%. Secretariat was bred to be a miler, as was Seattle Slew. I tend to think that Smarty lost this one because of a combination of factors - 1) the grind of not just these last 3 races, but the preps before that, 2) a sandy track that is typically not condusive to speed holding up, 3) the fact that he, like all horses, is not a machine and hit a slight downturn in his form cycle (I would be interested in seeing his Beyer for this race), and 4) a great performance by one of his rivals, a natural stayer who *is* capable of running all day. Sure, add breeding in there another contributing factor. Bottom line is, he got the distance better than all the rest of his opposition (some of which were considered "bred" for the distance) except one, who passed him inside the 1/16th pole.

The argument's academic, anyway. The distance isn't run at the top level for dirt horses any more, and once the fall rolls around and the rest of his generation has the chance to mature, the division may sort itself out differently anyway.